Investigating Sources of Variability and Error in Simulations of Carbon Dioxide in an Urban Region

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimation methods that use atmospheric trace gas observations, including inverse modeling techniques, perform better when carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes are more accurately transported and dispersed in the atmosphere by a numerical model. In urban areas, transport and dispersion is particularly difficult to simulate using current mesoscale meteorological models due, in part, to added complexity from surface heterogeneity and fine spatial/temporal scales. It is generally assumed that the errors in GHG estimation methods in urban areas are dominated by errors in transport and dispersion. Other significant errors include, but are not limited to, those from assumed emissions magnitude and spatial distribution. To assess the predictability of simulated trace gas mole fractions in urban observing systems using a numerical weather prediction model, we employ an Eulerian model that combines traditional meteorological variables with multiple passive tracers of atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic inventories and a biospheric model. The predictability of the Eulerian model is assessed by comparing simulated atmospheric CO2 mole fractions to observations from four in situ tower sites (three urban and one rural) in the Washington DC/Baltimore, MD area for February 2016. Four different gridded fossil fuel emissions inventories along with a biospheric flux model are used to create an ensemble of simulated atmospheric CO2 observations within the model. These ensembles help to evaluate whether the modeled observations are impacted more by the underlying emissions or transport. The spread of modeled observations using the four emission fields indicates the model's ability to distinguish between the different inventories under various meteorological conditions. Overall, the Eulerian model performs well; simulated and observed average CO2 mole fractions agree within 1% when averaged at the three urban sites across the month. However, there can be differences greater than 10% at any given hour, which are attributed to complex meteorological conditions rather than differences in the inventories themselves. On average, the mean absolute error of the simulated compared to actual observations is generally twice as large as the standard deviation of the modeled mole fractions across the four emission inventories. This result supports the assumption, in urban domains, that the predicted mole fraction error relative to observations is dominated by errors in model meteorology rather than errors in the underlying fluxes in winter months. As such, minimizing errors associated with atmospheric transport and dispersion may help improve the performance of GHG estimation models more so than improving flux priors in the winter months. We also find that the errors associated with atmospheric transport in urban domains are not restricted to certain times of day. This suggests that atmospheric inversions should use CO2 observations that have been filtered using meteorological observations rather than assuming that meteorological modeling is most accurate at certain times of day (such as using only mid-afternoon observations)

Siting Background Towers to Characterize Incoming Air for Urban Greenhouse Gas Estimation: A Case Study in the Washington, DC/Baltimore Area

There is increased interest in understanding urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To accurately estimate city emissions, the influence of extraurban fluxes must first be removed from urban greenhouse gas (GHG) observations. This is especially true for regions, such as the U.S. Northeastern Corridorâ Baltimore/Washington, DC (NECâ B/W), downwind of large fluxes. To help site background towers for the NECâ B/W, we use a coupled Bayesian Information Criteria and geostatistical regression approach to help site four background locations that best explain CO2 variability due to extraurban fluxes modeled at 12 urban towers. The synthetic experiment uses an atmospheric transport and dispersion model coupled with two different flux inventories to create modeled observations and evaluate 15 candidate towers located along the urban domain for February and July 2013. The analysis shows that the average ratios of extraurban inflow to total modeled enhancements at urban towers are 21% to 36% in February and 31% to 43% in July. In July, the incoming air dominates the total variability of synthetic enhancements at the urban towers (R2 = 0.58). Modeled observations from the selected background towers generally capture the variability in the synthetic CO2 enhancements at urban towers (R2 = 0.75, rootâ meanâ square error (RMSE) = 3.64 ppm; R2 = 0.43, RMSE = 4.96 ppm for February and July). However, errors associated with representing background air can be up to 10 ppm for any given observation even with an optimal background tower configuration. More sophisticated methods may be necessary to represent background air to accurately estimate urban GHG emissions.Key PointsFactoring in the variability of greenhouse gas enhancements in incoming air is critical for estimating emissions in an urban domainStatistical methods were used to site four towers sampling background air in the Washington, DC/Baltimore regionOptimal background tower configurations for representing incoming air can still have large errors for any given urban GHG observationPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142902/1/jgrd54353_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142902/2/jgrd54353.pd

A novel paired associative stimulation protocol with a high-frequency peripheral component : A review on results in spinal cord injury rehabilitation

In recent decades, a multitude of therapeutic approaches has been developed for spinal cord injury (SCI), but few have progressed to regular clinical practice. Novel non-invasive, cost-effective, and feasible approaches to treat this challenging condition are needed. A novel variant of paired associative stimulation (PAS), high-PAS, consists of non-invasive high-intensity transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) and non-invasive high-frequency electrical peripheral nerve stimulation (PNS). We observed a therapeutic effect of high-PAS in 20 patients with incomplete SCI with wide range of injury severity, age, and time since injury. Tetraplegic and paraplegic, traumatic, and neurological SCI patients benefited from upper- or lower-limb high-PAS. We observed increases in manual motor scores (MMT) of upper and lower limbs, functional hand tests, walking tests, and measures of functional independence. We also optimized PAS settings in several studies in healthy subjects and began elucidating the mechanisms of therapeutic action. The scope of this review is to describe the clinical experience gained with this novel PAS approach. This review is focused on the summary of our results and observations and the methodological considerations for researchers and clinicians interested in adopting and further developing this new method.Peer reviewe

A Community-Driven Approach to Identifying “Winnableâ€? Policies Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Common Community Measures for Obesity Prevention

Federally funded, community-based participatory research initiatives encourage the development and implementation of obesity prevention policies. In 2009, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published the Common Community Measures for Obesity Prevention (COCOMO), which include recommended strategies and measures to guide communities in identifying and evaluating environmental and policy strategies to prevent obesity. Agreeing on "winnable" policy issues can be challenging for community members. We used CDC's COCOMO to structure in-depth interviews and group discussions with local stakeholders (ie, planners, town managers, and a local community advisory council) to stimulate interest in and identify health-promoting policies for local policy and planning agendas. We first asked stakeholders to rank the COCOMO recommendations according to feasibility and likelihood of success given community culture, infrastructure, extent of leadership support, and likely funding support. Rankings were used to identify the most and least "winnable" COCOMO policy strategies. We then used questions from the evidence-based Community Readiness Handbook to aid discussion with stakeholders on the facilitators and barriers to enacting the most and least winnable policy options identified. Finally, we discuss potential adaptations to COCOMO for rural jurisdictions

Computer simulation of syringomyelia in dogs

Syringomyelia is a pathological condition in which fluid-filled cavities (syringes) form and expand in the spinal cord. Syringomyelia is often linked with obstruction of the craniocervical junction and a Chiari malformation, which is similar in both humans and animals. Some brachycephalic toy breed dogs such as Cavalier King Charles Spaniels (CKCS) are particularly predisposed. The exact mechanism of the formation of syringomyelia is undetermined and consequently with the lack of clinical explanation, engineers and mathematicians have resorted to computer models to identify possible physical mechanisms that can lead to syringes. We developed a computer model of the spinal cavity of a CKCS suffering from a large syrinx. The model was excited at the cranial end to simulate the movement of the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and the spinal cord due to the shift of blood volume in the cranium related to the cardiac cycle. To simulate the normal condition, the movement was prescribed to the CSF. To simulate the pathological condition, the movement of CSF was blocked

Effects of a Behavior-Based Weight Management Program Delivered Through a State Cooperative Extension and Local Public Health Department Network, North Carolina, 2008-2009

Introduction Eat Smart, Move More, Weigh Less (ESMMWL) is an adult weight management program developed in response to North Carolina Obesity Plan recommendations to make weight management interventions accessible to underserved populations. ESMMWL was designed to be delivered through the North Carolina Cooperative Extension and North Carolina Division of Public Health. Program coursework included content on evidence-based eating and physical activity behaviors and incorporated mindful eating concepts. The objectives of this study were to describe participant changes in weight and behaviors and to document the effectiveness of the program. Methods In this prospective pilot study, courses were delivered and data collected from January 2008 through June 2009. Instructors provided feedback about implementation. For participants, height, weight, and waist circumference were measured at baseline and completion. Participants completed a questionnaire about changes in their eating and physical activity behaviors, changes in their confidence to engage in weight management behaviors, and their satisfaction with the course. Results Seventy-nine instructors delivered 101 ESMMWL courses in 48 North Carolina counties. Most of the 1,162 completers were white women. Approximately 83% reported moving toward or attaining their goal. The average weight loss was 8.4 lb. Approximately 92% reported an increase in confidence to eat healthfully, and 82% reported an increase in confidence to be physically active. Instructors made suggestions for program standardization. Conclusion This study demonstrated the effectiveness, diffusion, and implementation of a theoretically based weight management program through a state extension and local public health department network. Study of the sustainability of changes in eating and physical activity behaviors is needed

T-Lymphocytes Enable Osteoblast Maturation via IL-17F during the Early Phase of Fracture Repair

While it is well known that the presence of lymphocytes and cytokines are important for fracture healing, the exact role of the various cytokines expressed by cells of the immune system on osteoblast biology remains unclear. To study the role of inflammatory cytokines in fracture repair, we studied tibial bone healing in wild-type and Rag1−/− mice. Histological analysis, µCT stereology, biomechanical testing, calcein staining and quantitative RNA gene expression studies were performed on healing tibial fractures. These data provide support for Rag1−/− mice as a model of impaired fracture healing compared to wild-type. Moreover, the pro-inflammatory cytokine, IL-17F, was found to be a key mediator in the cellular response of the immune system in osteogenesis. In vitro studies showed that IL-17F alone stimulated osteoblast maturation. We propose a model in which the Th17 subset of T-lymphocytes produces IL-17F to stimulate bone healing. This is a pivotal link in advancing our current understanding of the molecular and cellular basis of fracture healing, which in turn may aid in optimizing fracture management and in the treatment of impaired bone healing

Transcriptional analysis of the bovine herpesvirus 1 Cooper isolate

Blot hybridization analysis of infected bovine herpesvirus 1 (BHV-1) cellular RNA isolated at various times post infection and after treatment with specific metabolic inhibitors was used to characterize transcription of the BHV-1 Cooper isolate. Synthesis of BHV-1 RNA was detected as early as 3 h post infection and reached a maximum at six to eight hours post infection. The most transcriptionally active area of the genome was between map units 0.110 to 0.195, within the Hin dIII I fragment. From the entire genome a total of 59 transcripts ranging in size from approximately 0.6 to 10 kilobases were characterized as belonging to one of three distinct classes. Using the protein synthesis inhibitor cycloheximide, three immediate-early transcripts were identified as originating from the internal inverted repeat region between map units 0.734 and 0.842, corresponding to the Hin dIII D fragment. Using phosphonoacetic acid to prevent virus DNA synthesis by inhibition of the BHV-1 DNA polymerase, 28 early transcripts were recognized. The remaining 28 transcripts, classified as late RNA, were detected without the use of metabolic inhibitors at 6 to 8 h post infection. Transcription of early and late RNA was not restricted to any specific area of the genome. Eighty percent of the transcripts from both the Hin dIII A fragment, between map units 0.381 to 0.537 within the unique long segment, and the Hin dIII K fragment, between map units 0.840 to 0.907 of the unique short segment, were designated as belonging to the early class.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/41672/1/705_2005_Article_BF01316744.pd

Role of Matrix Metalloproteinases and Therapeutic Benefits of Their Inhibition in Spinal Cord Injury

This review will focus on matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their inhibitors in the context of spinal cord injury (SCI). MMPs have a specific cellular and temporal pattern of expression in the injured spinal cord. Here we consider their diverse functions in the acutely injured cord and during wound healing. Excessive activity of MMPs, and in particular gelatinase B (MMP-9), in the acutely injured cord contributes to disruption of the blood-spinal cord barrier, and the influx of leukocytes into the injured cord, as well as apoptosis. MMP-9 and MMP-2 regulate inflammation and neuropathic pain after peripheral nerve injury and may contribute to SCI-induced pain. Early pharmacologic inhibition of MMPs or the gelatinases (MMP-2 and MMP-9) results in an improvement in long-term neurological recovery and is associated with reduced glial scarring and neuropathic pain. During wound healing, gelatinase A (MMP-2) plays a critical role in limiting the formation of an inhibitory glial scar, and mice that are genetically deficient in this protease showed impaired recovery. Together, these findings illustrate complex, temporally distinct roles of MMPs in SCIs. As early gelatinase activity is detrimental, there is an emerging interest in developing gelatinase-targeted therapeutics that would be specifically tailored to the acute injured spinal cord. Thus, we focus this review on the development of selective gelatinase inhibitors