Risk of thromboembolism in patients developing critical illness-associated atrial fibrillation

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the Royal College of Physicians via the DOI in this record.Although common, the long-term significance of developing atrial fibrillation (AF) during a period of critical illness is unclear. We undertook a retrospective cohort analysis to assess the rate of thromboembolism (TE) in patients developing atrial fibrillation de novo during admission to our intensive care unit. 1955 patients were followed up (maximum follow-up 1276 days) for the occurrence of TE, of which 220 (11.3%) had developed AF or atrial flutter during their critical care admission. There were 11 TE events among the patients with new AF (0.053 events per patientyear), compared with 18 in the non-AF group (0.0059 events per patient-year). The unadjusted hazard ratio for TE in patients developing new AF compared with those not developing AF was 8.09 (95% CI 3.08 – 17.19, p<0.001). In patients admitted to critical care, the development of AF appears to be associated with a significantly increased risk of subsequent thromboembolism

Directional autocorrelation function of the polarization-mode dispersion vector

ABSTRACT The autocorrelation function (ACF) for the direction of the principal state of polarization (PSP) vector is reported. The analytical results are compared with the simulation results. It is shown that the magnitude and the directional ACF of the PSP vector are not independent. The directional correlation bandwidth for the PSP vector is verified to be narrower than that of the PSP magnitude

The fiddler crab, Minuca pugnax, follows Bergmann\u27s rule

Bergmann\u27s rule predicts that organisms at higher latitudes are larger than ones at lower latitudes. Here, we examine the body size pattern of the Atlantic marsh fiddler crab, Minuca pugnax (formerly Uca pugnax), from salt marshes on the east coast of the United States across 12 degrees of latitude. We found that M. pugnax followed Bergmann\u27s rule and that, on average, crab carapace width increased by 0.5 mm per degree of latitude. Minuca pugnax body size also followed the temperature–size rule with body size inversely related to mean water temperature. Because an organism\u27s size influences its impact on an ecosystem, and M. pugnax is an ecosystem engineer that affects marsh functioning, the larger crabs at higher latitudes may have greater per‐capita impacts on salt marshes than the smaller crabs at lower latitudes

Protection from annual flooding is correlated with increased cholera prevalence in Bangladesh: a zero-inflated regression analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Alteration of natural or historical aquatic flows can have unintended consequences for regions where waterborne diseases are endemic and where the epidemiologic implications of such change are poorly understood. The implementation of flood protection measures for a portion of an intensely monitored population in Matlab, Bangladesh, allows us to examine whether cholera outcomes respond positively or negatively to measures designed to control river flooding.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a zero inflated negative binomial model, we examine how selected covariates can simultaneously account for household clusters reporting no cholera from those with positive counts as well as distinguishing residential areas with low counts from areas with high cholera counts. Our goal is to examine how residence within or outside a flood protected area interacts with the probability of cholera presence and the effect of flood protection on the magnitude of cholera prevalence.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In Matlab, living in a household that is protected from annual monsoon flooding appears to have no significant effect on whether the household experiences cholera, net of other covariates. However, counter-intuitively, among households where cholera is reported, living within the flood protected region significantly increases the number of cholera cases.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The construction of dams or other water impoundment strategies for economic or social motives can have profound and unanticipated consequences for waterborne disease. Our results indicate that the construction of a flood control structure in rural Bangladesh is correlated with an increase in cholera cases for residents protected from annual monsoon flooding. Such a finding requires attention from both the health community and from governments and non-governmental organizations involved in ongoing water management schemes.</p

Behaviour change strategies for reducing blood pressure-related disease burden: findings from a global implementation research programme.

The Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases comprises the majority of the world's public research funding agencies. It is focussed on implementation research to tackle the burden of chronic diseases in low- and middle-income countries and amongst vulnerable populations in high-income countries. In its inaugural research call, 15 projects were funded, focussing on lowering blood pressure-related disease burden. In this study, we describe a reflexive mapping exercise to identify the behaviour change strategies undertaken in each of these projects.Using the Behaviour Change Wheel framework, each team rated the capability, opportunity and motivation of the various actors who were integral to each project (e.g. community members, non-physician health workers and doctors in projects focussed on service delivery). Teams then mapped the interventions they were implementing and determined the principal policy categories in which those interventions were operating. Guidance was provided on the use of Behaviour Change Wheel to support consistency in responses across teams. Ratings were iteratively discussed and refined at several group meetings.There was marked variation in the perceived capabilities, opportunities and motivation of the various actors who were being targeted for behaviour change strategies. Despite this variation, there was a high degree of synergy in interventions functions with most teams utilising complex interventions involving education, training, enablement, environmental restructuring and persuasion oriented strategies. Similar policy categories were also targeted across teams particularly in the areas of guidelines, communication/marketing and service provision with few teams focussing on fiscal measures, regulation and legislation.The large variation in preparedness to change behaviour amongst the principal actors across these projects suggests that the interventions themselves will be variably taken up, despite the similarity in approaches taken. The findings highlight the importance of contextual factors in driving success and failure of research programmes. Forthcoming outcome and process evaluations from each project will build on this exploratory work and provide a greater understanding of factors that might influence scale-up of intervention strategies

Plasma CC16 levels are associated with development of ALI/ARDS in patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia: a retrospective observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite consensus criteria, diagnosing acute lung injury, or its more severe form acute respiratory distress syndrome (ALI/ARDS) remains challenging. Adding objective measures, such as plasma levels of biological markers could facilitate recognition of ALI/ARDS. This study was designed to assess and compare the diagnostic accuracy of biological markers for ALI/ARDS with ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed serial measurements of Clara cell protein (CC16), soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products (sRAGE), surfactant protein D (SP-D) and Krebs von den Lungen (KL-6) in plasma of patients with VAP and mechanically ventilated control patients without VAP. ALI/ARDS was diagnosed using the criteria of the North-American European consensus conference.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thirty-seven patients were enrolled - 22 patients with VAP and 15 control patients. Ten patients with pneumonia met the ALI/ARDS consensus criteria. Control patients never met these criteria. Plasma CC16 had a good diagnostic capacity for ALI/ARDS as shown by the receiver operating characteristic curve with an area under the curve of 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79 - 1.00; <it>p </it>< 0.001). Identification of ALI/ARDS patients by sudden increases in plasma CC16 of 30% or more yielded a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 92%. Of note, levels of CC16 increased 2 days before ALI/ARDS diagnosis. A cut-off level of 50 ng/ml SP-D yielded a specificity of 100% while the sensitivity was 70%. The area under the curve for SP-D was 0.80 (95% CI 0.58 - 1.00; <it>p </it>= 0.02). The diagnostic accuracies of KL-6 and sRAGE were low.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Plasma CC16 seems a potential biological marker for ALI/ARDS in patients with VAP. Plasma levels of sRAGE, SP-D and KL-6 have limited discriminative power for diagnosing ALI/ARDS in VAP.</p