Improving irrigation efficiency will be insufficient to meet future water demand in the Nile Basin

The Nile River Basin covers an area of approximately 3.2 million km2 and is shared by 11 countries. Rapid population growth is expected in the region. The irrigation requirements of Nile riparian countries of existing (6.4 million ha) and additional planned (3.8 million ha, 2050) irrigation schemes were calculated, and the likely water savings through improved irrigation efficiency were evaluated. We applied SPARE:WATER to calculate irrigation demands on the basis of the well-known FAO56 Crop Irrigation Guidelines. Egypt (67 km3 yr-1) and Sudan (19 km3 yr-1) consume the highest share of the 84 km3 yr-1 total (2011). Assuming today’s poor irrigation infrastructure, the total consumption was predicted to increase to 123 km3 yr-1 (2050), an amount far exceeding the total annual yield of the Nile Basin. Therefore, a key challenge for water resources management in the Nile Basin is balancing the increasing irrigation water demand basin-wide with the available water supply. We found that water savings from improved irrigation technology will not be able to meet the additional needs of planned areas. Under a theoretical scenario of maximum possible efficiency, the deficit would still be 5 km3 yr-1. For more likely efficiency improvement scenarios, the deficit ranged between 23 and 29 km3 yr-1. Our results suggest that that improving irrigation efficiency may substantially contribute to decreasing water stress on the Nile system but would not completely meet the demand. Study Region: The Nile River Basin covers an area of approximately 3.2 million km2 and is shared by 11 countries. Rapid population growth is expected in the region. Study Focus: Record population growth is expected for the study region. Therefore, the irrigation requirements of Nile riparian countries of existing (6.4 million ha) and additional planned (3.8 million ha, 2050) irrigation schemes were calculated, and likely water savings through improved irrigation efficiency were evaluated. We applied a spatial decision support system (SPARE:WATER) to calculate the irrigation demands on the basis of the well-known FAO56 Crop Irrigation Guidelines. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Egypt (67 km3yr-1) and Sudan (19 km3yr-1) consume the highest share of 84 km3yr-1 (2011). Assuming today’s poor irrigation infrastructure, the total demand were predicted to increase to 123 km3yr-1 (2050), an amount far exceeding the total annual yield of the Nile Basin. Therefore, a key challenge for water resources management in the Nile Basin is balancing the increasing irrigation water demand and available water supply. We found that water savings from improved irrigation technology will not be able to meet the additional needs of planned areas. Under a theoretical scenario of maximum possible efficiency, the deficit would still be 5 km3yr-1. For more likely efficiency improvement scenarios, the deficit ranges between 23 and 29 km3yr-1. Our results suggest that improving irrigation efficiency may substantially contribute to decreasing water stress on the Nile system but would not completely meet the demand

Monte Carlo-based calibration and uncertainty analysis of a coupled plant growth and hydrological model

Computer simulations are widely used to support decision making and planning in the agriculture sector. On the one hand, many plant growth models use simplified hydrological processes and structures – for example, by the use of a small number of soil layers or by the application of simple water flow approaches. On the other hand, in many hydrological models plant growth processes are poorly represented. Hence, fully coupled models with a high degree of process representation would allow for a more detailed analysis of the dynamic behaviour of the soil–plant interface. We coupled two of such high-process-oriented independent models and calibrated both models simultaneously. The catchment modelling framework (CMF) simulated soil hydrology based on the Richards equation and the van Genuchten–Mualem model of the soil hydraulic properties. CMF was coupled with the plant growth modelling framework (PMF), which predicts plant growth on the basis of radiation use efficiency, degree days, water shortage and dynamic root biomass allocation. The Monte Carlo-based generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method was applied to parameterize the coupled model and to investigate the related uncertainty of model predictions. Overall, 19 model parameters (4 for CMF and 15 for PMF) were analysed through 2 × 106 model runs randomly drawn from a uniform distribution. The model was applied to three sites with different management in Müncheberg (Germany) for the simulation of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in a cross-validation experiment. Field observations for model evaluation included soil water content and the dry matter of roots, storages, stems and leaves. The shape parameter of the retention curve n was highly constrained, whereas other parameters of the retention curve showed a large equifinality. We attribute this slightly poorer model performance to missing leaf senescence, which is currently not implemented in PMF. The most constrained parameters for the plant growth model were the radiation-use efficiency and the base temperature. Cross validation helped to identify deficits in the model structure, pointing out the need for including agricultural management options in the coupled model

Reduction of predictive uncertainty in estimating irrigation water requirement through multi-model ensembles and ensemble averaging

Irrigation agriculture plays an increasingly important role in food supply. Many evapotranspiration models are used today to estimate the water demand for irrigation. They consider different stages of crop growth by empirical crop coefficients to adapt evapotranspiration throughout the vegetation period. We investigate the importance of the model structural versus model parametric uncertainty for irrigation simulations by considering six evapotranspiration models and five crop coefficient sets to estimate irrigation water requirements for growing wheat in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia. The study is carried out using the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER. We find that structural model uncertainty among reference ET is far more important than model parametric uncertainty introduced by crop coefficients. These crop coefficients are used to estimate irrigation water requirement following the single crop coefficient approach. Using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) technique, we are able to reduce the overall predictive model uncertainty by more than 10%. The exceedance probability curve of irrigation water requirements shows that a certain threshold, e.g. an irrigation water limit due to water right of 400 mm, would be less frequently exceeded in case of the REA ensemble average (45%) in comparison to the equally weighted ensemble average (66%). We conclude that multi-model ensemble predictions and sophisticated model averaging techniques are helpful in predicting irrigation demand and provide relevant information for decision making

Data for: Improving irrigation efficiency is not sufficient to meet future water demand in the Nile Basin

The Nile River Basin covers an area of approximately 3.2 million km2 and is shared by 11 countries. Rapid population growth is expected in the region. The irrigation requirements of Nile riparian countries of existing (6.4 million ha) and additional planned (3.8 million ha, 2050) irrigation schemes were calculated, and the likely water savings through improved irrigation efficiency were evaluated. We applied SPARE:WATER to calculate irrigation demands on the basis of the well-known FAO56 Crop Irrigation Guidelines. Egypt (67 km3 yr-1) and Sudan (19 km3 yr-1) consume the highest share of the 84 km3 yr-1 total (2011). Assuming today’s poor irrigation infrastructure, the total consumption was predicted to increase to 123 km3 yr-1 (2050), an amount far exceeding the total annual yield of the Nile Basin. Therefore, a key challenge for water resources management in the Nile Basin is balancing the increasing irrigation water demand basin-wide with the available water supply. We found that water savings from improved irrigation technology will not be able to meet the additional needs of planned areas. Under a theoretical scenario of maximum possible efficiency, the deficit would still be 5 km3 yr-1. For more likely efficiency improvement scenarios, the deficit ranged between 23 and 29 km3 yr-1. Our results suggest that that improving irrigation efficiency may substantially contribute to decreasing water stress on the Nile system but would not completely meet the demand

Data for: Improving irrigation efficiency is not sufficient to meet future water demand in the Nile Basin

The Nile River Basin covers an area of approximately 3.2 million km2 and is shared by 11 countries. Rapid population growth is expected in the region. The irrigation requirements of Nile riparian countries of existing (6.4 million ha) and additional planned (3.8 million ha, 2050) irrigation schemes were calculated, and the likely water savings through improved irrigation efficiency were evaluated. We applied SPARE:WATER to calculate irrigation demands on the basis of the well-known FAO56 Crop Irrigation Guidelines. Egypt (67 km3 yr-1) and Sudan (19 km3 yr-1) consume the highest share of the 84 km3 yr-1 total (2011). Assuming today’s poor irrigation infrastructure, the total consumption was predicted to increase to 123 km3 yr-1 (2050), an amount far exceeding the total annual yield of the Nile Basin. Therefore, a key challenge for water resources management in the Nile Basin is balancing the increasing irrigation water demand basin-wide with the available water supply. We found that water savings from improved irrigation technology will not be able to meet the additional needs of planned areas. Under a theoretical scenario of maximum possible efficiency, the deficit would still be 5 km3 yr-1. For more likely efficiency improvement scenarios, the deficit ranged between 23 and 29 km3 yr-1. Our results suggest that that improving irrigation efficiency may substantially contribute to decreasing water stress on the Nile system but would not completely meet the demand

Data for: Improving irrigation efficiency is not sufficient to meet future water demand in the Nile Basin

The Nile River Basin covers an area of approximately 3.2 million km2 and is shared by 11 countries. Rapid population growth is expected in the region. The irrigation requirements of Nile riparian countries of existing (6.4 million ha) and additional planned (3.8 million ha, 2050) irrigation schemes were calculated, and the likely water savings through improved irrigation efficiency were evaluated. We applied SPARE:WATER to calculate irrigation demands on the basis of the well-known FAO56 Crop Irrigation Guidelines. Egypt (67 km3 yr-1) and Sudan (19 km3 yr-1) consume the highest share of the 84 km3 yr-1 total (2011). Assuming today’s poor irrigation infrastructure, the total consumption was predicted to increase to 123 km3 yr-1 (2050), an amount far exceeding the total annual yield of the Nile Basin. Therefore, a key challenge for water resources management in the Nile Basin is balancing the increasing irrigation water demand basin-wide with the available water supply. We found that water savings from improved irrigation technology will not be able to meet the additional needs of planned areas. Under a theoretical scenario of maximum possible efficiency, the deficit would still be 5 km3 yr-1. For more likely efficiency improvement scenarios, the deficit ranged between 23 and 29 km3 yr-1. Our results suggest that that improving irrigation efficiency may substantially contribute to decreasing water stress on the Nile system but would not completely meet the demand

Data for: Improving irrigation efficiency is not sufficient to meet future water demand in the Nile Basin

The Nile River Basin covers an area of approximately 3.2 million km2 and is shared by 11 countries. Rapid population growth is expected in the region. The irrigation requirements of Nile riparian countries of existing (6.4 million ha) and additional planned (3.8 million ha, 2050) irrigation schemes were calculated, and the likely water savings through improved irrigation efficiency were evaluated. We applied SPARE:WATER to calculate irrigation demands on the basis of the well-known FAO56 Crop Irrigation Guidelines. Egypt (67 km3 yr-1) and Sudan (19 km3 yr-1) consume the highest share of the 84 km3 yr-1 total (2011). Assuming today’s poor irrigation infrastructure, the total consumption was predicted to increase to 123 km3 yr-1 (2050), an amount far exceeding the total annual yield of the Nile Basin. Therefore, a key challenge for water resources management in the Nile Basin is balancing the increasing irrigation water demand basin-wide with the available water supply. We found that water savings from improved irrigation technology will not be able to meet the additional needs of planned areas. Under a theoretical scenario of maximum possible efficiency, the deficit would still be 5 km3 yr-1. For more likely efficiency improvement scenarios, the deficit ranged between 23 and 29 km3 yr-1. Our results suggest that that improving irrigation efficiency may substantially contribute to decreasing water stress on the Nile system but would not completely meet the demand

A Site-sPecific Agricultural water Requirement and footprint Estimator (SPARE:WATER 1.0)

The agricultural water footprint addresses the quantification of water consumption in agriculture, whereby three types of water to grow crops are considered, namely green water (consumed rainfall), blue water (irrigation from surface or groundwater) and grey water (water needed to dilute pollutants). By considering site-specific properties when calculating the crop water footprint, this methodology can be used to support decision making in the agricultural sector on local to regional scale. We therefore developed the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER that allows us to quantify green, blue and grey water footprints on regional scale. SPARE:WATER is programmed in VB.NET, with geographic information system functionality implemented by the MapWinGIS library. Water requirements and water footprints are assessed on a grid basis and can then be aggregated for spatial entities such as political boundaries, catchments or irrigation districts. We assume inefficient irrigation methods rather than optimal conditions to account for irrigation methods with efficiencies other than 100%. Furthermore, grey water is defined as the water needed to leach out salt from the rooting zone in order to maintain soil quality, an important management task in irrigation agriculture. Apart from a thorough representation of the modelling concept, we provide a proof of concept where we assess the agricultural water footprint of Saudi Arabia. The entire water footprint is 17.0 km³ yr⁻¹ for 2008, with a blue water dominance of 86%. Using SPARE:WATER we are able to delineate regional hot spots as well as crop types with large water footprints, e.g. sesame or dates. Results differ from previous studies of national-scale resolution, underlining the need for regional estimation of crop water footprints

Assessment of potential implications of agricultural irrigation policyon surface water scarcity in Brazil

Expanding irrigated cropping areas is one of Brazil’s strategies to increase agricultural production. This expansion is constrained by water policy goals to restrict water scarcity to acceptable levels. We therefore analysed the trade-off between levels of acceptable water scarcity, and feasible expansion of irrigation. The appropriateness of water use in agricultural production was assessed in categories ranging from excellent to very critical based on the river flow that is equalled or exceeded for 95% of the time (Q95) as indicator for physical water availability. The crop water balance components were determined for 166,842 sub-catchments covering all of Brazil. The crops considered were cotton, rice, sugarcane, beans, cassava, corn, soybean and wheat, together accounting for 96% of the harvested area of irrigated and rainfed agriculture. On currently irrigated land irrigation must be discontinued on 53.6% (2.30 Mha) for an excellent water scarcity level, on 44.5% (1.91 Mha) for a comfortable water scarcity level and on 35.2% (1.51 Mha) for a worrying water scarcity level, in order to avoid critical water scarcity. An expansion of irrigated areas by irrigating all 45.56 Mha of rainfed area would strongly impact surface water resources, resulting in 26.02 Mha experiencing critical and very critical water scarcity. The results show in a spatially differentiated manner that potential future decisions regarding expanding irrigated cropping areas in Brazil must, while pursuing to intensify production practices, consider the likely regional effects on water scarcity levels, in order to reach sustainable agricultural production