Toward improved hydrologic prediction with reduced uncertainty using sequential multi-model combination

The contemporary usage of hydrologic models has been to rely on a single model to perform the simulation and predictions. Despite the tremendous progress, efforts and investment put into developing more hydrologic models, there is no convincing claim that any particular model in existence is superior to other models for various applications and under all circumstances. This results to reducing the size of the plausible model space and often leads to predictions that may well-represent some phenomena or events at the expenses of others. Assessment of predictive uncertainty based on a single model is subject to statistical bias and most likely underestimation of uncertainty. This endorses the implementation of multi-model methods for more accurate estimation of uncertainty in hydrologic prediction. In this study, we present two methods for the combination of multiple model predictors using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Sequential Bayesian Model Combination (SBMC). Both methods are statistical schemes to infer a combined probabilistic prediction that possess more reliability and skill than the original model members produced by several competing models. This paper discusses the features of both methods and explains how the limitation of BMA can be overcome by SBMC. Three hydrologic models are considered and it is shown that multi-model combination can result in higher prediction accuracy than individual models. © 2008 ASCE

Improved streamflow forecasting using self-organizing radial basis function artificial neural networks

Streamflow forecasting has always been a challenging task for water resources engineers and managers and a major component of water resources system control. In this study, we explore the applicability of a Self Organizing Radial Basis (SORB) function to one-step ahead forecasting of daily streamflow. SORB uses a Gaussian Radial Basis Function architecture in conjunction with the Self-Organizing Feature Map (SOFM) used in data classification. SORB outperforms the two other ANN algorithms, the well known Multi-layer Feedforward Network (MFN) and Self-Organizing Linear Output map (SOLO) neural network for simulation of daily streamflow in the semi-arid Salt River basin. The applicability of the linear regression model was also investigated and concluded that the regression model is not reliable for this study. To generalize the model and derive a robust parameter set, cross-validation is applied and its outcome is compared with the split sample test. Cross-validation justifies the validity of the nonlinear relationship set up between input and output data. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Dual state-parameter estimation of hydrological models using ensemble Kalman filter

Hydrologic models are twofold: models for understanding physical processes and models for prediction. This study addresses the latter, which modelers use to predict, for example, streamflow at some future time given knowledge of the current state of the system and model parameters. In this respect, good estimates of the parameters and state variables are needed to enable the model to generate accurate forecasts. In this paper, a dual state-parameter estimation approach is presented based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) for sequential estimation of both parameters and state variables of a hydrologic model. A systematic approach for identification of the perturbation factors used for ensemble generation and for selection of ensemble size is discussed. The dual EnKF methodology introduces a number of novel features: (1) both model states and parameters can be estimated simultaneously; (2) the algorithm is recursive and therefore does not require storage of all past information, as is the case in the batch calibration procedures; and (3) the various sources of uncertainties can be properly addressed, including input, output, and parameter uncertainties. The applicability and usefulness of the dual EnKF approach for ensemble streamflow forecasting is demonstrated using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Uncertainty quantification of satellite precipitation estimation and Monte Carlo assessment of the error propagation into hydrologic response

The aim of this paper is to foster the development of an end-to-end uncertainty analysis framework that can quantify satellite-based precipitation estimation error characteristics and to assess the influence of the error propagation into hydrological simulation. First, the error associated with the satellite-based precipitation estimates is assumed as a nonlinear function of rainfall space-time integration scale, rain intensity, and sampling frequency. Parameters of this function are determined by using high-resolution satellite-based precipitation estimates and gauge-corrected radar rainfall data over the southwestern United States. Parameter sensitivity analysis at 16 selected 5° × 5° latitude-longitude grids shows about 12-16% of variance of each parameter with respect to its mean value. Afterward, the influence of precipitation estimation error on the uncertainty of hydrological response is further examined with Monte Carlo simulation. By this approach, 100 ensemble members of precipitation data are generated, as forcing input to a conceptual rainfall-runoff hydrologic model, and the resulting uncertainty in the streamflow prediction is quantified. Case studies are demonstrated over the Leaf River basin in Mississippi. Compared with conventional procedure, i.e., precipitation estimation error as fixed ratio of rain rates, the proposed framework provides more realistic quantification of precipitation estimation error and offers improved uncertainty assessment of the error propagation into hydrologic simulation. Further study shows that the radar rainfall-generated streamflow sequences are consistently contained by the uncertainty bound of satellite rainfall generated streamflow at the 95% confidence interval. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union

Investigating the impact of remotely sensed precipitation and hydrologic model uncertainties on the ensemble streamflow forecasting

In the past few years sequential data assimilation (SDA) methods have emerged as the best possible method at hand to properly treat all sources of error in hydrological modeling. However, very few studies have actually implemented SDA methods using realistic input error models for precipitation. In this study we use particle filtering as a SDA method to propagate input errors through a conceptual hydrologic model and quantify the state, parameter and streamflow uncertainties. Recent progress in satellite-based precipitation observation techniques offers an attractive option for considering spatiotemporal variation of precipitation. Therefore, we use the PERSIANN-CCS precipitation product to propagate input errors through our hydrologic model. Some uncertainty scenarios are set up to incorporate and investigate the impact of the individual uncertainty sources from precipitation, parameters and also combined error sources on the hydrologic response. Also probabilistic measure are used to quantify the quality of ensemble prediction. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union

Effect of salicylic acid treatment on cadmium toxicity and leaf lipid composition in sunflower

The ameliorative effect of salicylic acid (SA) on cadmium (Cd) toxicity in sunflower plants was studied by investigating plant growth and fatty acid composition. Sunflower plants in two leaves stage were exposed to CdCl2 treatment (0, 50, 100, 150 and 200 µM) and then were treated with salicylic acid (0, 250 and 500 µM) as foliage spraying. One week after the last salicylic acid treatment,plants were harvested and growth parameters were measured . Oil of leaf was extracted in a Soxhlet system and fatty acid composition were measured by gas chromatography (GC). Statistical analyses showed excess Cd reduced growth parameters (fresh weight and length of stems and roots, fresh weight and number of leaves)and SA increased them compared with the control. Maximum reduction in these parameters was at 200 µmol Cd and 0µmol of SA. Cd caused a shift in fatty acids composition, resulting in a lower degree of their unsaturation and an increase in saturated fatty acids in sunflower leaves,whereas SA improved them. SA, particularly increased the percentage of linolenic acid and lowered that of palmitic acid by the same proportion. These results sugg membrane integrity due to lipids est that SA could be used as a potential growth regulator and a stabilizer ofprotection of cadmium-induced oxidative stress to improve plant resistance to Cd stres

Abiotic Stresses Management in Citrus

Citrus production is affected globally by several environmental stresses. Some citrus-producing regions suffer from severe ecological abiotic stresses, including cold, soil salinity and sodicity, extreme temperature, and drought. These abiotic stresses can alleviate the growth, fruit yield, and quality of citrus. Strategies that attempt to sustain and increase tolerance of citrus against the negative effect of abiotic stresses are the use of antiperspirant compounds, phytohormones, synthetic and natural growth regulators, soil and plant moisture retaining tools and structures, nutrition management, application of organic fertilizers, rootstocks breeding in citriculture, and others. These strategies increase the yield and growth of the plant along with the relative improvement of the fruit quality during the growth and fruiting period, increasing the absorption of water and nutrients, the extensive accumulation of osmolytes and the increase of antioxidant enzymes, changes in the amount of signaling substances, and the expression of genes under stress, increase tolerance to abiotic stresses in citrus fruits. In this review, we tried to provide a summary of the abiotic stress management in citrus by literature

Time estimation and beta segregation: An EEG study and graph theoretical approach

Elucidation of the neural correlates of time perception constitutes an important research topic in cognitive neuroscience. The focus to date has been on durations in the millisecond to seconds range, but here we used electroencephalography (EEG) to examine brain functional connectivity during much longer durations (i.e., 15 min). For this purpose, we conducted an initial exploratory experiment followed by a confirmatory experiment. Our results showed that those participants who overestimated time exhibited lower activity of beta (18�30 Hz) at several electrode sites. Furthermore, graph theoretical analysis indicated significant differences in the beta range (15�30 Hz) between those that overestimated and underestimated time. Participants who underestimated time showed higher clustering coefficient compared to those that overestimated time. We discuss our results in terms of two aspects. FFT results, as a linear approach, are discussed within localized/dedicated models (i.e., scalar timing model). Second, non-localized properties of psychological interval timing (as emphasized by intrinsic models) are addressed and discussed based on results derived from graph theory. Results suggested that although beta amplitude in central regions (related to activity of BG-thalamocortical pathway as a dedicated module) is important in relation to timing mechanisms, the properties of functional activity of brain networks; such as the segregation of beta network, are also crucial for time perception. These results may suggest subjective time may be created by vector units instead of scalar ticks. © 2018 Ghaderi et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited