The predictability of large-scale wind-driven flows

International audienceThe singular values associated with optimally growing perturbations to stationary and time-dependent solutions for the general circulation in an ocean basin provide a measure of the rate at which solutions with nearby initial conditions begin to diverge, and hence, a measure of the predictability of the flow. In this paper, the singular vectors and singular values of stationary and evolving examples of wind-driven, double-gyre circulations in different flow regimes are explored. By changing the Reynolds number in simple quasi-geostrophic models of the wind-driven circulation, steady, weakly aperiodic and chaotic states may be examined. The singular vectors of the steady state reveal some of the physical mechanisms responsible for optimally growing perturbations. In time-dependent cases, the dominant singular values show significant variability in time, indicating strong variations in the predictability of the flow. When the underlying flow is weakly aperiodic, the dominant singular values co-vary with integral measures of the large-scale flow, such as the basin-integrated upper ocean kinetic energy and the transport in the western boundary current extension. Furthermore, in a reduced gravity quasi-geostrophic model of a weakly aperiodic, double-gyre flow, the behaviour of the dominant singular values may be used to predict a change in the large-scale flow, a feature not shared by an analogous two-layer model. When the circulation is in a strongly aperiodic state, the dominant singular values no longer vary coherently with integral measures of the flow. Instead, they fluctuate in a very aperiodic fashion on mesoscale time scales. The dominant singular vectors then depend strongly on the arrangement of mesoscale features in the flow and the evolved forms of the associated singular vectors have relatively short spatial scales. These results have several implications. In weakly aperiodic, periodic, and stationary regimes, the mesoscale energy content is usually relatively low and the predictability of the wind-driven circulation is determined by the large-scale structure of the flow. In the more realistic, strongly chaotic regime, in which energetic mesoscale eddies are produced by the meandering of the separated western boundary current extension, the predictability of the flow locally tends to be a stronger function of the local mesoscale eddy structure than of the larger scale structure of the circulation. This has a broader implication for the effectiveness of different approaches to forecasting the ocean with models which sequentially assimilate new observations

Barotropic, wind-driven circulation in a small basin

We study the asymptotic behavior (large time) of a simple, wind-driven, barotropic ocean model, described by a nonlinear partial differential equation with two spatial dimensions. Considered as a dynamical system, this model has an infinite-dimensional phase space. After discretization, the equivalent numerical model has a phase space of finite but large dimension. We find that for a considerable range of friction, the asymptotic states are low-dimensional attractors. We describe the changes in the structure of these asymptotic attractors as a function of the eddy viscosity of the model. A variety of different types of attractor are seen, with chaotic attractors predominating at higher Reynolds numbers. As the Reynolds number is increased, we observe a slow increase in the dimension of the chaotic attractors. Using an energy analysis, we examine the nature of the instability responsible for the Hopf bifurcation that initiates the transition from asymptotically steady states to time-dependent states

Instabilities of a steady, barotropic, wind-driven circulation

We explore the stability characteristics of a single, barotropic, wind-driven gyre as a function of the strength of the wind forcing and the size and shape of the basin. We find steady solutions for the barotropic flow in a basin driven by a steady wind stress over a range of values of the Reynolds number and the strength of the wind stress. For those solutions that are close to the stability boundary, we examine the form of the most unstable normal mode. We find that for sufficiently weak forcing, the form of the first instability seen is an instability of the western boundary current. However, for larger values of the forcing, the first instability to set in, as the Reynolds number is reduced, is centered on a standing meander that forms on the continuation of the boundary current after it has left the boundary. Both types of instability are oscillatory. There are several different modes of standing meander instability each associated with Rossby wave-like disturbances in the eastern half of the basin. Each of these modes is most unstable when its frequency is close to a resonance with a basin mode with similar spatial scales

The alimentary impact of the hemp seed

Hemp seed and hemp seed oil can supply us with many important substances. Their essential fatty acid compositions are favourable, but they may contain non-psychotropic cannabinoids. Emerging data show that these components can influence the health status of the population beneficially. Some data also showed trace amounts of tetrahydrocannabinol in seed oils, the main psychotropic cannabinoid that is contraindicated.Our aim was to examine cannabinoids and fatty acid composition as well as metal and non-metal element compositions in products, like hemp seed oil and chopped hemp seed capsule.The cannabinoids were separated by thin layer chromatography. Fatty acid composition was determined with gas chromatography, and elements (Al, B, Ba, Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Ni, P, Pb, S, Si, Sn, Sr, V, and Zn) were measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometric method. Selenium was determined with polarographic analyser.Cannabinoids were not detectable by thin layer chromatography, so hemp seed oil, as well as the capsule, have no psychotropic adverse effect. Our data showed that hemp seed contains essential fatty acids close to the recommended ratio. The B and Se concentrations of the oils and the P concentration of the capsule are also relevant

On the stability of the wind-driven circulation

This work examines the instabilities of steady circulations driven by stationary single-gyre wind forcing in closed rectangular basins with different aspect ratios. The stratified ocean is modeled with quasi-geostrophic 1.5-layer (equivalent-barotropic) and two-layer models. As friction is reduced, a stability threshold is encountered. In the vicinity of this threshold, unstable steady states and their unstable eigenmodes are determined. The structures of the eigenmodes and their associated energy conversion terms allow us to characterize the instabilities. In each case, the loss of stability is associated with an oscillatory instability. Several different instability mechanisms are observed. Which of these is responsible for the onset of instability depends upon the basin aspect ratio and the choice of stratification (1.5- or two-layer). The various mechanisms include instability of the western boundary current, baroclinic instability of the main recirculation gyre, instability of a standing meander located downstream of the main recirculation gyre and a complex instability involving several recirculations and the standing meander. The periods of the eigenmodes range from several months to several years depending upon the kind of instability and type of model. Additional insight into the western boundary current and baroclinic gyre instabilities is provided by an exploration of the stability of (a) the Munk boundary layer flow in 1.5- and two-layer models in an unbounded north-south channel, and (b) an isolated baroclinic vortex on an f-plane

Cinderella Waltz

80.7568.210 – “Cinderella Waltz”: Rossini: R. S. Meacham: n.d.: Piano Solo

Data incongruence and the problem of avian louse phylogeny

Recent studies based on different types of data (i.e. morphological and molecular) have supported conflicting phylogenies for the genera of avian feather lice (Ischnocera: Phthiraptera). We analyse new and published data from morphology and from mitochondrial (12S rRNA and COI) and nuclear (EF1-) genes to explore the sources of this incongruence and explain these conflicts. Character convergence, multiple substitutions at high divergences, and ancient radiation over a short period of time have contributed to the problem of resolving louse phylogeny with the data currently available. We show that apparent incongruence between the molecular datasets is largely attributable to rate variation and nonstationarity of base composition. In contrast, highly significant character incongruence leads to topological incongruence between the molecular and morphological data. We consider ways in which biases in the sequence data could be misleading, using several maximum likelihood models and LogDet corrections. The hierarchical structure of the data is explored using likelihood mapping and SplitsTree methods. Ultimately, we concede there is strong discordance between the molecular and morphological data and apply the conditional combination approach in this case. We conclude that higher level phylogenetic relationships within avian Ischnocera remain extremely problematic. However, consensus between datasets is beginning to converge on a stable phylogeny for avian lice, at and below the familial rank

An Alternative Interpretation of Statistical Mechanics

In this paper I propose an interpretation of classical statistical mechanics that centers on taking seriously the idea that probability measures represent complete states of statistical mechanical systems. I show how this leads naturally to the idea that the stochasticity of statistical mechanics is associated directly with the observables of the theory rather than with the microstates (as traditional accounts would have it). The usual assumption that microstates are representationally significant in the theory is therefore dispensable, a consequence which suggests interesting possibilities for developing non-equilibrium statistical mechanics and investigating inter-theoretic answers to the foundational questions of statistical mechanics