Weak identification of forward-looking models in monetairy economics

Recently, single-equation GMM methods have become popular in the monetary economics literature, for estimating forward-looking models with rational expectations. We discuss a method for analyzing the empirical identification of such models that exploits their dynamic structure and the assumption of rational expectations. This allows us to judge the reliability of the resulting GMM estimation and inference and reveals the potential sources of weak identification. With reference to the New Keynesian Phillips curve of Galí and Gertler (1999) and the forward-looking Taylor rules of Clarida, Galí, and Gertler (2000), we demonstrate that the usual 'weak instruments' problem can arise naturally, when the predictable variation in inflation is small relative to unpredictable future shocks (news). Hence, we conclude that those models are less reliably estimated over periods when inflation has been under effective policy control

Testing the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy in Japan and the United States

Unconventional monetary policy (UMP) may make the effective lower bound (ELB) on the short-term interest rate irrelevant. We develop a theoretical model that underpins our empirical test of this ‘irrelevance hypothesis,’ based on the simple idea that under the hypothesis, the short rate can be excluded in any empirical model that accounts for alternative measures of monetary policy. We test the hypothesis for Japan and the United States using a structural vector autoregressive model with the ELB. We firmly reject the hypothesis but find that UMP has had strong delayed effects

The Cancer Hub Approach for Upper Gastrointestinal Surgery During COVID-19 Pandemic: Outcomes from a UK Cancer Centre.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused unprecedented disruption to global healthcare delivery. In England, the majority of elective surgery was postponed or cancelled to increase intensive care capacity. Our unit instituted the 'RM Partners Cancer Hub' at the Royal Marsden Hospital in London, to deliver ongoing cancer surgery in a 'COVID-lite' setting. This article describes the operational set-up and outcomes for upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancer resections performed during this period. METHODS: From April 2020 to April 2021, the Royal Marsden Hospital formed the RM Partners Cancer Hub. This approach was designed to coordinate resources and provide as much oncological treatment as feasible for patients across the RM Partners West London Cancer Alliance. A UGI surgical case prioritisation strategy, along with strict infection control pathways and pre-operative screening protocols, was adopted. RESULTS: A total of 231 patients underwent surgery for confirmed or suspected UGI cancer during the RM Partners Cancer Hub, with 213 completed resections and combined 90-day mortality rate of 3.5%. Good short-term survival outcomes were demonstrated with 2-year disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) for oesophageal (70.8% and 72.9%), gastric (66.7% and 83.3%) and pancreatic cancer resections (68.0% and 88.0%). One patient who developed perioperative COVID-19 during the RM Partners Cancer Hub operation made a full recovery with no lasting clinical sequelae. CONCLUSION: Our experience demonstrates that the RM Partners Cancer Hub approach is a safe strategy for continuing upper gastrointestinal (GI) resectional surgery during future periods of healthcare service disruption

Does an extensive diagnostic workup for upfront resectable pancreatic cancer result in a delay which affects survival? Results from an international multicentre study

Backgrounds/Aims: Pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is recommended in fit patients with a carcinoma (PDAC) of the pancreatic head, and a delayed resection may affect survival. This study aimed to correlate the time from staging to PD with long-term survival, and study the impact of preoperative investigations (if any) on the timing of surgery. // Methods: Data were extracted from the Recurrence After Whipple’s (RAW) study, a multicentre retrospective study of PD outcomes. Only PDAC patients who underwent an upfront resection were included. Patients who received neoadjuvant chemo-/radiotherapy were excluded. Group A (PD within 28 days of most recent preoperative computed tomography [CT]) was compared to group B (> 28 days). // Results: A total of 595 patents were included. Compared to group A (median CT-PD time: 12.5 days, interquartile range: 6–21), group B (49 days, 39–64.5) had similar one-year survival (73% vs. 75%, p = 0.6), five-year survival (23% vs. 21%, p = 0.6) and median time-todeath (17 vs. 18 months, p = 0.8). Staging laparoscopy (43 vs. 29.5 days, p = 0.009) and preoperative biliary stenting (39 vs. 20 days, p 0.99) and endoscopic ultrasonography (28 vs. 32 days, p > 0.99) were not. // Conclusions: Although a treatment delay may give rise to patient anxiety, our findings would suggest this does not correlate with worse survival. A delay may be necessary to obtain further information and minimize the number of PD patients diagnosed with early disease recurrence

Collapse risk and residual drift performance of steel buildings using post-tensioned MRFs and viscous dampers in near-fault regions

The potential of post-tensioned self-centering moment-resisting frames (SC-MRFs) and viscous dampers to reduce the collapse risk and improve the residual drift performance of steel buildings in near-fault regions is evaluated. For this purpose, a prototype steel building is designed using different seismic-resistant frames, i.e.: moment-resisting frames (MRFs); MRFs with viscous dampers; SC-MRFs; and SC-MRFs with viscous dampers. The frames are modeled in OpenSees where material and geometrical nonlinearities are taken into account as well as stiffness and strength deterioration. A database of 91 near-fault, pulse-like ground motions with varying pulse periods is used to conduct incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), in which each ground motion is scaled until collapse occurs. The probability of collapse and the probability of exceeding different residual story drift threshold values are calculated as a function of the ground motion intensity and the period of the velocity pulse. The results of IDA are then combined with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis models that account for near-fault directivity to assess and compare the collapse risk and the residual drift performance of the frames. The paper highlights the benefit of combining the post-tensioning and supplemental viscous damping technologies in the near-source. In particular, the SC-MRF with viscous dampers is found to achieve significant reductions in collapse risk and probability of exceedance of residual story drift threshold values compared to the MRF. © 2016 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrech