Forecasting UK real estate cycle phases with leading indicators: a probit approach

This paper examines the significance of widely used leading indicators of the UK economy for predicting the cyclical pattern of commercial real estate performance. The analysis uses monthly capital value data for UK industrials, offices and retail from the Investment Property Databank (IPD). Prospective economic indicators are drawn from three sources namely, the series used by the US Conference Board to construct their UK leading indicator and the series deployed by two private organisations, Lombard Street Research and NTC Research, to predict UK economic activity. We first identify turning points in the capital value series adopting techniques employed in the classical business cycle literature. We then estimate probit models using the leading economic indicators as independent variables and forecast the probability of different phases of capital values, that is, periods of declining and rising capital values. The forecast performance of the models is tested and found to be satisfactory. The predictability of lasting directional changes in property performance represents a useful tool for real estate investment decision-making

Valuation accuracy: reconciling the timing of the valuation and sale

Carsberg (2002) suggested that the periodic valuation accuracy studies undertaken by, amongst others, IPD/Drivers Jonas (2003) should be undertaken every year and be sponsored by the RICS, which acts as the self-regulating body for valuations in the UK. This paper does not address the wider issues concerning the nature of properties which are sold and whether the sale prices are influenced by prior valuations, but considers solely the technical issues concerning the timing of the valuation and sales data. This study uses valuations and sales data from the Investment Property Databank UK Monthly Index to attempt to identify the date that sale data is divulged to valuers. This information will inform accuracy studies that use a cut-off date as to the closeness of valuations to sales completion date as a yardstick for excluding data from the analysis. It will also, assuming valuers are informed quickly of any agreed sales, help to determine the actual sale agreed date rather than the completion date, which includes a period of due diligence between when the sale is agreed and its completion. Valuations should be updated to this date, rather than the formal completion date, if a reliable measure of valuation accuracy is to be determined. An accuracy study is then undertaken using a variety of updating periods and the differences between the results are examined. The paper concludes that the sale only becomes known to valuers in the month prior to the sale taking place and that this assumes either that sales due diligence procedures are shortening or valuers are not told quickly of agreed sale prices. Studies that adopt a four-month cut-off date for any valuations compared to sales completion dates are over cautious, and this could be reduced to two months without compromising the data

Adaptive Resolution Simulation of Liquid Water

We present a multiscale simulation of liquid water where a spatially adaptive molecular resolution procedure allows for changing on-the-fly from a coarse-grained to an all-atom representation. We show that this approach leads to the correct description of all essential thermodynamic and structural properties of liquid water.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures; changed figure

N′-[(E)-2-Chloro­benzyl­idene]-2-[(1,3,4-thia­diazol-2-yl)sulfan­yl]acetohydrazide

In the title compound, C11H9ClN4OS2, the thia­diazole and chloro­phenyl rings are oriented at an angle of 43.1 (1)°. The sum of the bond angles around the amide N atom (359.8°) of the acetohydrazide group is in accordance with a model of sp2 hybridization. In the crystal, inversion dimers linked by pairs of N—H⋯O hydrogen bonds generate R 2 2(8) loops. Weak C—H⋯π inter­actions also occur

Mycobacterium cosmeticum catheter-related bloodstream infection in an immunocompetent patient: A case report and review of the literature

BackgroundMycobacterium cosmeticum is an emerging rapidly growing mycobacteria (RGM) species that has been rarely reported to cause human disease. RGM catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSI) are often challenging to treat given the need for line removal, variable species-dependent antimicrobial susceptibility, combination antimicrobial treatment, and historically longer courses of antibiotics.Case presentationWe present a case of an immunocompetent pediatric patient with severe hemophilia B and M. cosmeticum CRBSI. While the patient's hemophilia B precluded a standard line holiday, he successfully cleared his infection with two line exchanges followed by two weeks of antibiotics.ConclusionsRGM, including emerging species M. cosmeticum, may be considered in patients with an indolent presentation of CRBSI. Our case suggests source control with shorter courses of antimicrobials can be successful

Future research demands of the United European Gastroenterology (UEG) and its member societies

AIMS: The purpose of this study was to initiate and stimulate collaborative research efforts to support United European Gastroenterology Federation (UEG) member societies facilitating digestive health research in European on the one hand and, on the other hand, to increase EU-funded digestive health research by providing evidence and advice to funding bodies on priority areas. The UEG Research Committee initiated a survey of the current and future research interests of each individual UEG ordinary member society (specialist societies). METHODS: A questionnaire was sent by mail to 17 UEG ordinary member societies asking them to specify research demands related to the most urgent medical need including basic science research, translational research, clinical research, patient management research and research on disease prevention, in an open fashion but with limited word count. RESULTS: The responses from 13 societies were analysed in a semi-quantitative and in a qualitative way, and were clustered into five domains with two aspects each that were consented and shared between three and seven of the responding 13 societies. These clusters resemble topics such as ‘Hot topics’ (e.g. life-style, nutrition, microbial-host interaction), Biomarkers (genetic profiling, gut-brain interaction), Advanced technology (artificial intelligence, personalised medicine), Global research tools (bio-banking, EU trials), and Medical training (education, prevention). CONCLUSION: The generated topic list allows both collaboration between individual specialist societies as well as initiating and fostering future research calls at the EU level and beyond when approaching stakeholders

COVID-19 infection in patients on long-term home parenteral nutrition for chronic intestinal failure

To investigate the incidence and the severity of COVID-19 infection in patients enrolled in the database for home parenteral nutrition (HPN) for chronic intestinal failure (CIF) of the European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism (ESPEN).Period of observation: March 1st, 2020 March 1st, 2021.patients included in the database since 2015 and still receiving HPN on March 1st, 2020 as well as new patients included in the database during the period of observation. Data related to the previous 12 months and recorded on March 1st 2021: 1) occurrence of COVID-19 infection since the beginning of the pandemic (yes, no, unknown); 2) infection severity (asymptomatic; mild, no-hospitalization; moderate, hospitalization no-ICU; severe, hospitalization in ICU); 3) vaccinated against COVID-19 (yes, no, unknown); 4) patient outcome on March 1st 2021: still on HPN, weaned off HPN, deceased, lost to follow up.Sixty-eight centres from 23 countries included 4680 patients. Data on COVID-19 were available for 55.1% of patients. The cumulative incidence of infection was 9.6% in the total group and ranged from 0% to 21.9% in the cohorts of individual countries. Infection severity was reported as: asymptomatic 26.7%, mild 32.0%, moderate 36.0%, severe 5.3%. Vaccination status was unknown in 62.0% of patients, non-vaccinated 25.2%, vaccinated 12.8%. Patient outcome was reported as: still on HPN 78.6%, weaned off HPN 10.6%, deceased 9.7%, lost to follow up 1.1%. A higher incidence of infection (p = 0.04), greater severity of infection (p < 0.001) and a lower vaccination percentage (p = 0.01) were observed in deceased patients. In COVID-19 infected patients, deaths due to infection accounted for 42.8% of total deaths.In patients on HPN for CIF, the incidence of COVID-19 infection differed greatly among countries. Although the majority of cases were reported to be asymptomatic or have mild symptoms only, COVID-19 was reported to be fatal in a significant proportion of infected patients. Lack of vaccination was associated with a higher risk of death

Advancing patient‐centered care: Recent developments in UEG's patient relations

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

New CZE-DAD method for honeybee venom analysis and standardization of the product

The aim of this study was to develop a new precise and accurate CZE-DAD method for honeybee venom analysis using cytochrome c as an internal standard. The 64.5 cm total length, 56 cm effective length, 75 μm ID, and 360 μm OD uncoated fused-silica capillary was used. The samples were injected into the capillary under a 50-mbar pressure for 7 s. There were 15 kV of electric field across the capillary applied. The current intensity was 26 μA. The separation was carried out at 25 °C. The analysis was run with the normal electrode polarity. The following steps and parameters were taken into account for the validation of the developed method: selectivity, precision, accuracy, linearity, limit of detection and limit of quantitation. All steps of the validation procedure proved that the developed analytical procedure was suitable for its intended purpose. Possibly this was the first study in which several honeybee venom components were separated and five of them were identified by capillary zone electrophoresis. In addition, the developed method was applied for quantitative analysis of 38 honeybee venom samples. The content (relative to the dry venom mass) of analyzed peptides in honeybee venom samples collected in 2002–2007 was as follows: apamine from 0.93% to 4.34% (mean, 2.85 ± 0.79%); mast cell degranulating peptide (MCDP) from 1.46% to 4.37% (mean, 2.82 ± 0.64%); phospholipase A2 from 7.41% to 20.25% (mean, 12.95 ± 3.09%); melittin from 25.40% to 60.27%, (mean, 45.91 ± 9.78%). The results were compared with the experimental data obtained for the same venom samples analyzed earlier by the HPLC method. It was stated that HPCE and HPLC data did not differ significantly and that the HPCE method was the alternative for the HPLC method. Moreover, using the results obtained principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to clarify the general distribution patterns or similarities of four major honeybee venom constituents collected from two different bee strains in various months and years. PCA has shown that the strain of bee appears to be the only criteria for bee venom sample classification. Strong correlations between apamine, MCDP, phospholipase A2, and melittin were confirmed. These correlations have to be taken into account in the honeybee venom standardization. The developed method due to its simplicity can be easily automated and incorporated into routine operations both in the bee venom identification, quality control, and standardization of the product