A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility

When parents are altruistic toward children, the choices of fertility and consumption come from the maximization of a dynastic utility function. The maximization conditions imply first, an arbitrage condition for consumption across generations, and second, the equation of the benefit from an extra child to the net cost of rearing that child. These conditions imply that fertility in open economies depends positively on the world interest rate, on the degree of altruism, and on the growth of child-survival probabilities; and negatively on the rate of technical progress and the growth rate of social security. The growth of consumption across generations depends on changes in the net cost of rearing children, but not on interest rates or tirne preference. Even when we include life-cycle elements, we conclude that the growth of aggregate consumption per capita depends in the long run on the growth of consumption across generations. Thereby we show that real interest rates and growth rates of consumption per capita would be unrelated in the long run.

Barro's fertility equations: the robustness of the role of female education and income

Barro and Lee (1994) and Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995) find that real per-capita GDP and both male and female education have important effects on fertility in their cross-country empirical studies. In order to assess the robustness of their results, their estimated models are subjected to specification and diagnostic testing, the effects on the model of using the improved Barro and Lee (1996) cross-country data on educational attainment of the population aged 15 and over are examined, and the different specifications used by Barro and Lee and by Barro and Sala-i-Martin compared. The results obtained suggest that their fertility equations do not perform well in terms of diagnostic testing, and are very sensitive to the use of different vintages of the educational attainment proxies and of the Summers-Heston cross-country income data. A robust explanation of fertility, to link with empirical growth equations, has, therefore, not yet been found; further work is required in this area

The impact of health on professionally active people's incomes in Poland. Microeconometric analysis

The outcome of the research confirms the occurrence of positive interaction between professionally active people's incomes and the self-assessed state of health. People declaring a bad state of health have incomes by 20% on average lower than people who enjoy good health (assuming that the remaining characteristics of the surveyed person are the same). In case of men, the impact of health state on incomes is slightly greater than in case of women.Wyniki badań potwierdzają istnienie pozytywnej zależności dochodów osób aktywnych zawodowo od stanu zdrowia mierzonego jego samooceną. Osoby deklarujące zły stan zdrowia osiągają dochody przeciętnie o 20% niższe niż osoby, które cieszą się dobrym stanem zdrowia (przy założeniu, że pozostałe charakterystyki badanej osoby są takie same). W przypadku mężczyzn zależność dochodów od stanu zdrowia jest nieznacznie silniejsza niż w przypadku kobiet

Testing stock market convergence: a non-linear factor approach

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US between 1973 and 2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and Watson (J Am Stat Assoc 93(441):349–358, 1998) procedure to filter the data in order to extract the long-run component of the series; then, following Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007), we estimate the relative transition parameters. In the case of sectoral indices we find convergence in the middle of the sample period, followed by divergence, and detect four (two large and two small) clusters. The analysis at a disaggregate, industry level again points to convergence in the middle of the sample, and subsequent divergence, but a much larger number of clusters is now found. Splitting the cross-section into two subgroups including euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence/divergence process not obviously influenced by EU policies

Inequality, Fiscal Capacity and the Political Regime: Lessons from the Post-Communist Transition

Using panel data for twenty-seven post-communist economies between 1987-2003, we examine the nexus of relationships between inequality, fiscal capacity (defined as the ability to raise taxes efficiently) and the political regime. Investigating the impact of political reform we find that full political freedom is associated with lower levels of income inequality. Under more oligarchic (authoritarian) regimes, the level of inequality is conditioned by the state’s fiscal capacity. Specifically, oligarchic regimes with more developed fiscal systems are able to defend the prevailing vested interests at a lower cost in terms of social injustice. This empirical finding is consistent with the model developed by Acemoglu (2006). We also find that transition countries undertaking early macroeconomic stabilisation now enjoy lower levels of inequality; we confirm that education fosters equality and the suggestion of Commander et al (1999) that larger countries are prone to higher levels of inequality.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57211/1/wp831 .pd

Spatially resolved kinematics in the central 1 kpc of a compact star-forming galaxy at z=2.3 from ALMA CO observations

We present high spatial resolution (FWHM$\sim$0.14'') observations of the CO($8-7$) line in GDS-14876, a compact star-forming galaxy at $z=2.3$ with total stellar mass of $\log(M_{\star}/M_{\odot})=10.9$. The spatially resolved velocity map of the inner $r\lesssim1$~kpc reveals a continous velocity gradient consistent with the kinematics of a rotating disk with $v_{\rm rot}(r=1\rm kpc)=163\pm5$ km s$^{-1}$ and $v_{\rm rot}/\sigma\sim2.5$. The gas-to-stellar ratios estimated from CO($8-7$) and the dust continuum emission span a broad range, $f^{\rm CO}_{\rm gas}=M_{\rm gas}/M_{\star}=13-45\%$ and $f^{\rm cont}_{\rm gas}=50-67\%$, but are nonetheless consistent given the uncertainties in the conversion factors. The dynamical modeling yields a dynamical mass of$\log(M_{\rm dyn}/M_{\odot})=10.58^{+0.5}_{-0.2}$ which is lower, but still consistent with the baryonic mass, $\log$(M$_{\rm bar}$= M$_{\star}$ + M$^{\rm CO}_{\rm gas}$/M$_{\odot}$)$=11.0$, if the smallest CO-based gas fraction is assumed. Despite a low, overall gas fraction, the small physical extent of the dense, star-forming gas probed by CO($8-7$), $\sim3\times$ smaller than the stellar size, implies a strong concentration that increases the gas fraction up to $f^{\rm CO, 1\rm kpc}_{\rm gas}\sim 85\%$ in the central 1 kpc. Such a gas-rich center, coupled with a high star-formation rate, SFR$\sim$ 500 M$_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$, suggests that GDS-14876 is quickly assembling a dense stellar component (bulge) in a strong nuclear starburst. Assuming its gas reservoir is depleted without replenishment, GDS-14876 will quickly ($t_{\rm depl}\sim27$ Myr) become a compact quiescent galaxy that could retain some fraction of the observed rotational support.Comment: Accepted for Publication in ApJL. Kinematic maps are shown in Figures 2 and