Large changes in Great Britain’s vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this recordData availability: The parameter values used for JULES is available from the suite u-ao645 and branch ‘full_UK’ on the Rosie repository: https://code.metoffice.gov.uk/trac/roses-u (registration required). The data that support the findings of this study are openly available at DOI.The impact of climate change on vegetation including agricultural production has been the focus of many studies. Climate change is expected to have heterogeneous effects across locations globally, and the diversity of land uses characterising Great Britain (GB) presents a unique opportunity to test methods for assessing climate change effects and impacts. GB is a relatively cool and damp country, hence, the warmer and generally drier growing season conditions projected for the future are expected to increase arable production. Here we use state-of-the-art, kilometre-scale climate change scenarios to drive a land surface model (JULES; Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) and an ECOnometric AGricultural land use model (ECO-AG). Under unmitigated climate change, by the end of the century, the growing season in GB is projected to get >5°C warmer and 140 mm drier on average. Rising levels of atmospheric CO2 are predicted to counteract the generally negative impacts of climate change on vegetation productivity in JULES. Given sufficient precipitation, warming favours higher value arable production over grassland agriculture, causing a predicted westward expansion of arable farming in ECO-AG. However, drying in the East and Southeast, without any CO2 fertilisation effect, is severe enough to cause a predicted reversion from arable to grassland farming. Irrigation, if implemented, could maintain this land in arable production. However, the predicted irrigation demand of ~200 mm (per growing season) in many locations is comparable to annual predicted runoff, potentially demanding large-scale redistribution of water between seasons and/or across the country. The strength of the CO2 fertilisation effect emerges as a crucial uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on GB vegetation, especially farming land-use decisions.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programm

Identifying the geographical potential of rooftop systems: space competition and synergy

Industrial EcologyEnvironmental Biolog

Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability: The modelled output data that support the findings of this study are openly available from: Smith, G. S. & Ritchie, P. D. L. (NERC Environmental Information Data Centre: 639 doi.org/10.5285/e1c1dbcf-2f37-429b-af19-a730f98600f6, 2019).Climate change is expected to impact agricultural land use. Steadily accumulating changes in temperature and water availability can alter the relative profitability of different farming activities and promote land use changes. There is also potential for high-impact ‘climate tipping points’ where abrupt, non-linear change in climate occurs - such as the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, using data from Great Britain, we develop a methodology to analyse the impacts of a climate tipping point on land use and economic outcomes for agriculture. We show that economic/land use impacts of such a tipping point are likely to include widespread cessation of arable farming with losses of agricultural output, an order of magnitude larger than the impacts of climate change without an AMOC collapse. The agricultural effects of AMOC collapse could be ameliorated by technological adaptations such as widespread irrigation, but the amount of water required and the costs appear prohibitive in this instance.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Alan Turing Institut

El modelo SLX: ampliación de la forma general, y sensibilidad de los desbordamientos espaciales a la especificación de la W

This is the final version of the article. Freely available from Funcas via the link in this recordWith publisher permission, this record also contains the English translation of the article: "The SLX model: Extensions and the sensitivity of spatial spillovers to W"The spatial lag of X model, a linear regression model extended to include explanatory variables observed on neighboring cross-sectional units, is the simplest spatial econometric model producing flexible spatial spillover effects and the easiest model to parameterize the spatial weights matrix, denoted by W, describing the spatial arrangement of the units in the sample. Nevertheless, it has received relatively little attention in the theoretical and applied spatial econometrics literature. This study fills this gap by considering several extensions of its basic form. It is found that the claim made in many empirical studies that their results are robust to the specification of W is not sufficiently substantiated. Especially the spatial spillover effects, often the main interest of spatial economic and econometric studies, turn out to be sensitive to the specification of W. In addition, it is found that the common practice to adopt the same W for every spatial lag should be rejected. These findings are illustrated using a cigarette demand model based on panel data of 46 U.S. states over the period 1963 to 1992.El modelo con retardo espacial de X, o abreviadamente SLX, un modelo de regresión lineal con especificación ampliada para incluir variables explicativas observadas en las unidades vecinas de un corte transversal, constituye el modelo econométrico espacial más simple que genera efectos de desbordamiento espacial (spillovers) flexibles, así como el más sencillo para parametrizar la matriz de ponderaciones espaciales —denominada W—, ilustrativa de cómo se ordenan espacialmente las unidades de la muestra. Sin embargo, este tipo de modelo ha recibido relativamente poca atención tanto en la literatura teórica como en los estudios de econometría espacial aplicada. El presente trabajo viene a cubrir ese hueco mediante la consideración de varias ampliaciones a partir de la forma general o estándar. Se constata que, en contra de lo asertado en muchos estudios empíricos, la noción de que los resultados son robustos para cualquier especificación de W no está suficientemente fundamentada. En particular, se demuestra que los efectos de desbordamiento espacial, típicamente el principal objeto de interés de los estudios de economía y econometría espacial, son sensibles a la especificación de W. Además, se concluye que la práctica habitual de utilizar la misma configuración de W para cada retardo espacial debe ser rechazada. Estos hallazgos quedan ilustrados mediante la utilización de un modelo de demanda de cigarrillos basado en datos de panel correspondientes a 46 estados de EE.UU. durante el periodo entre 1963 y 1992

Voting and the rise of populism : Spatial perspectives and applications across Europe

Populism has expanded over the past decade, especially far-right parties and their respective voter bases. Voting patterns are often unevenly distributed over space, which makes it very relevant to explore, along with other relevant factors, the spatial dimension. This will increase our understanding of the rise of populist parties, and accordingly, policy implications. First, an introduction to the rise of populism is given, especially in the context of Europe, followed by introducing a conceptualization of the spatial dimension of populism. Then, the contributions of the special issue are highlighted. A clear conclusion is that economic development is an important factor in explaining populist voting, but that regional factors such as local public spending on culture, broader welfare and local unemployment, play an equally important role. Instead of more policies, more attention to the context-specific regional needs are urgently required, resulting in a call for place-sensitive policies that take into account regional economic and socio-demographic differences. Finally, ideas on further research directions are proposed.</p

Does population decline lead to a "populist voting mark-up"? A case study of the Netherlands

The main thesis of this paper is that people in areas of (expected) population decline vote more populist to express their discontent about the current and future state of their place of residence. In many ways a “populist voting mark-up” could be expected, as declining areas often are associated with being forgotten, fomenting societal discontent and mistrust in established political parties ultimately expected to lead to more populist votes. Using the outcomes of the Dutch national elections in 2012 and 2017, we link shares of populist votes for the PVV (Party for Freedom) and SP (Socialist Party) to indicators of population decline, as well as other demographic (“compositional effects”), local and regional characteristics (“contextual effects”) to appraise what causes higher rates of votes for populist parties in regions of decline. We do not find a “populist voting mark-up” for declining regions when controlling for contextual effects. However, we do find that both the compositional and the contextual circumstances in areas of population decline are in such a way that they provoke discontent expressed in voting. We also conclude that it is very important to distinguish between different parties when their party programs are as contrasting as in the case of the PVV and the SP. Their different focus on immigration (PVV) and jobs (SP) is clearly visible in the results.</p

Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point

Climate change is expected to impact agricultural land use. Steadily accumulating changes in temperature and water availability can alter the relative profitability of different farming activities and promote land-use changes. There is also potential for high-impact ‘climate tipping points’, where abrupt, nonlinear change in climate occurs, such as the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, using data from Great Britain, we develop a methodology to analyse the impacts of a climate tipping point on land use and economic outcomes for agriculture. We show that economic and land-use impacts of such a tipping point are likely to include widespread cessation of arable farming with losses of agricultural output that are an order of magnitude larger than the impacts of climate change without an AMOC collapse. The agricultural effects of AMOC collapse could be ameliorated by technological adaptations such as widespread irrigation, but the amount of water required and the costs appear to be prohibitive in this instance

Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point

Climate change is expected to impact agricultural land use. Steadily accumulating changes in temperature and water availability can alter the relative profitability of different farming activities and promote land-use changes. There is also potential for high-impact ‘climate tipping points’, where abrupt, nonlinear change in climate occurs, such as the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, using data from Great Britain, we develop a methodology to analyse the impacts of a climate tipping point on land use and economic outcomes for agriculture. We show that economic and land-use impacts of such a tipping point are likely to include widespread cessation of arable farming with losses of agricultural output that are an order of magnitude larger than the impacts of climate change without an AMOC collapse. The agricultural effects of AMOC collapse could be ameliorated by technological adaptations such as widespread irrigation, but the amount of water required and the costs appear to be prohibitive in this instance