A Land System representation for global assessments and land-use modeling

Current global scale land-change models used for integrated assessments and climate modeling are based on classifications of land cover. However, land-use management intensity and livestock keeping are also important aspects of land use, and are an integrated part of land systems. This article aims to classify, map, and to characterize Land Systems (LS) at a global scale and analyze the spatial determinants of these systems. Besides proposing such a classification, the article tests if global assessments can be based on globally uniform allocation rules. Land cover, livestock, and agricultural intensity data are used to map LS using a hierarchical classification method. Logistic regressions are used to analyze variation in spatial determinants of LS. The analysis of the spatial determinants of LS indicates strong associations between LS and a range of socioeconomic and biophysical indicators of human-environment interactions. The set of identified spatial determinants of a LS differs among regions and scales, especially for (mosaic) cropland systems, grassland systems with livestock, and settlements. (Semi-)Natural LS have more similar spatial determinants across regions and scales. Using LS in global models is expected to result in a more accurate representation of land use capturing important aspects of land systems and land architecture: the variation in land cover and the link between land-use intensity and landscape composition. Because the set of most important spatial determinants of LS varies among regions and scales, land-change models that include the human drivers of land change are best parameterized at sub-global level, where similar biophysical, socioeconomic and cultural conditions prevail in the specific regions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Community-based rehabilitation and disability-inclusive development: On a winding path to an uncertain destination

The majority of people with disabilities who live in developing countries, predominantly in the global South, do not receive any formal disability or rehabilitation services. In those countries or regions where at least some disability services are provided, the community-based rehabilitation (CBR) approach, or some form of it, is likely to be the only approach available (Evans et al. 2001)

Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling

Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address

Towards a Learning System for University Campuses as Living Labs for Sustainability

Universities, due to their sizeable estates and populations of staff and students, as well as their connections with, and impact within, their local and wider communities, have significant environmental, social and economic impacts. There is a strong movement for universities to become leaders in driving society towards a more sustainable future, through improving the sustainability of the built environment and the universities’ practices and operations, and through their educational, research and wider community engagement missions. Around the globe the concept of ‘Living Labs’ has emerged as an instrument to integrate these different aspects to deliver sustainability improvements, through engaging multiple stakeholders in all of these areas, and through the co-creation of projects to improve the sustainability of the campus environment and operations, and to link these to the education, research, and wider community missions of the institution. This chapter describes a living, shared framework and methodology, the ‘Campus as Living Lab’ learning system, created through global participatory workshops and Living Lab literature, aimed at supporting universities and their Sustainability (Coordinating) Offices in the development and monitoring of Living Lab projects. The framework includes seven categories of supportive data collection and three levels of details to meet different requirements of potential users. The Living Lab framework presented in this chapter, aims to create value and help universities maximise the benefit of Living Lab projects within an institution, support monitoring, reflection and learning from projects, and facilitate communication with stakeholders, and the sharing of practices and learning between peers across the globe. As a living shared, framework and learning system, the framework will adapt and develop over time and within different contexts. To provide feedback and fast (practical) learning from users, the system will be further developed to facilitate transparent peer reviewing

Revisiting and modelling the woodland farming system of the early Neolithic Linear Pottery Culture (LBK), 5600–4900 B.C

International audienceThis article presents the conception and the conceptual results of a modelling representation of the farming systems of the Linearbandkeramik Culture (LBK). Assuming that there were permanent fields (PF) then, we suggest four ways that support the sustainability of such a farming system over time: a generalized pollarding and coppicing of trees to increase the productivity of woodland areas for foddering more livestock, which itself can then provide more manure for the fields, a generalized use of pulses grown together with cereals during the same cropping season, thereby reducing the needs for manure. Along with assumptions limiting bias on village and family organizations, the conceptual model which we propose for human environment in the LBK aims to be sustainable for long periods and can thereby overcome doubts about the PFs hypothesis for the LBK farming system. Thanks to a reconstruction of the climate of western Europe and the consequent vegetation pattern and productivity arising from it, we propose a protocol of experiments and validation procedures for both testing the PFs hypothesis and defining its eco-geographical area

Instability, investment, disasters, and demography: natural disasters and fertility in Italy (1820–1962) and Japan (1671–1965)

This article examines whether natural disasters affect fertility—a topic little explored but of policy importance given relevance to policies regarding disaster insurance, foreign aid, and the environment. The identification strategy uses historic regional data to exploit natural variation within each of two countries: one European country—Italy (1820–1962), and one Asian country—Japan (1671–1965). The choice of study settings allows consideration of Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory that preindustrial differences in income and population between Asia and Europe resulted from the fertility response to different environmental risk profiles. According to the results, short-run instability, particularly that arising from the natural environment, appears to be associated with a decrease in fertility—thereby suggesting that environmental shocks and economic volatility are associated with a decrease in investment in the population size of future generations. The results also show that, contrary to Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory, differences in fertility between Italy and Japan cannot be explained away by disaster proneness alone. Research on the effects of natural disasters may enable social scientists and environmentalists alike to better predict the potential effects of the increase in natural disasters that may result from global climate change