Familial inference: tests for hypotheses on a family of centres

Statistical hypotheses are translations of scientific hypotheses into statements about one or more distributions, often concerning their centre. Tests that assess statistical hypotheses of centre implicitly assume a specific centre, e.g., the mean or median. Yet, scientific hypotheses do not always specify a particular centre. This ambiguity leaves the possibility for a gap between scientific theory and statistical practice that can lead to rejection of a true null. In the face of replicability crises in many scientific disciplines, significant results of this kind are concerning. Rather than testing a single centre, this paper proposes testing a family of plausible centres, such as that induced by the Huber loss function (the Huber family). Each centre in the family generates a testing problem, and the resulting family of hypotheses constitutes a familial hypothesis. A Bayesian nonparametric procedure is devised to test familial hypotheses, enabled by a novel pathwise optimization routine to fit the Huber family. The favourable properties of the new test are demonstrated theoretically and experimentally. Two examples from psychology serve as real-world case studies.Comment: To appear in Biometrik

A novel estrus-synchronization program for anestrous and cycling, suckled, beef cows

We used four herds at three Kansas ranches to evaluate the potential of two new estrus synchronization strategies to increase estrus expression and fertility of 911 crossbred suckled beef cows. The treatments included: 1) 100 μg of GnRH and a 6-mg norgestomet ear implant on day -7 and 25 mg of PG F2" and implant removal on day 0 (GnRH+NORG+PG F2"); 2) 100 μg of GnRH on day - 7 and 25 mg of PGF 2" on day 0 (GnRH+PG F2"); and 3 ) (control) 25- mg injections of PG F2" on days -14 and 0; (2×PGF2" control) . The GnRH+NORG+ PGF 2" and GnRH+PGF treatments increased (P<.01) 2" the overall percentages of cows detected in estrus by 49% and 27% and pregnancy rates by 46% and 37%, respectively, over the control group, without altering conception rate. Both treatments increase d the estrus, conception, and pregnancy rates of noncycling cows, compared to controls

Dazzle Camouflage Affects Speed Perception

Movement is the enemy of camouflage: most attempts at concealment are disrupted by motion of the target. Faced with this problem, navies in both World Wars in the twentieth century painted their warships with high contrast geometric patterns: so-called “dazzle camouflage”. Rather than attempting to hide individual units, it was claimed that this patterning would disrupt the perception of their range, heading, size, shape and speed, and hence reduce losses from, in particular, torpedo attacks by submarines. Similar arguments had been advanced earlier for biological camouflage. Whilst there are good reasons to believe that most of these perceptual distortions may have occurred, there is no evidence for the last claim: changing perceived speed. Here we show that dazzle patterns can distort speed perception, and that this effect is greatest at high speeds. The effect should obtain in predators launching ballistic attacks against rapidly moving prey, or modern, low-tech battlefields where handheld weapons are fired from short ranges against moving vehicles. In the latter case, we demonstrate that in a typical situation involving an RPG7 attack on a Land Rover the reduction in perceived speed is sufficient to make the grenade miss where it was aimed by about a metre, which could be the difference between survival or not for the occupants of the vehicle

A “rotating menu” of medical uncertainty for families affected by telomere biology disorders: A qualitative interview study

Background Medical uncertainty may cause distress and challenge medical decision-making for patients with rare diseases and their caregivers. Few studies have examined the experience and management of medical uncertainty in rare disease and the dynamics of multiple medical uncertainty sources, issues, and management strategies. Objective We explored the experience and management of uncertainty in individuals with telomere biology disorders (TBDs), a set of rare cancer-prone bone marrow failure syndromes, and their caregivers. Design Participants (N=32) in this qualitative-descriptive study were individuals with a TBD (n=17) and/or their caregivers (n=15). We thematically analyzed transcripts to describe the presence and dynamics of medical uncertainty in TBDs using categories from a previously published taxonomy. Results Individuals with TBDs and caregivers described medical uncertainty as a chronic burden embodied amidst a range of interrelated sources and issues. Scientific uncertainty included diagnostic and prognostic ambiguity. Practical uncertainty focused on logistical challenges of building and maintaining medical care teams. Personal uncertainty included difficulty realigning self-identity, goals, and relationship expectations post-diagnosis. Scientific, practical, and personal uncertainty issues were entangled. The rarity of TBDs resulted in limited scientific knowledge, which gave rise to practical and personal uncertainties affecting medical decision-making and relationship formation (e.g., creating trusted care teams where patient knowledge of TBDs may exceed that of clinicians). Participants used multiple strategies for uncertainty management, particularly information-seeking and community-building. However, these management strategies could intensify, rather than resolve, participants’ medical uncertainty. Conclusion In TBDs, medical uncertainty manifests as a network of multiple, interrelated, sources and issues, which require evolving management strategies. Researchers must be mindful that complex, synergistic uncertainty networks contribute to psychosocial challenges in TBDs. Additional research is warranted to address scientific uncertainty in TBDs, including clinical manifestations and underlying biology, and to develop psychosocial interventions that recognize and anticipate evolving uncertainty

3D evolution of a filament disappearance event observed by STEREO

A filament disappearance event was observed on 22 May 2008 during our recent campaign JOP 178. The filament, situated in the southern hemisphere, showed sinistral chirality consistent with the hemispheric rule. The event was well observed by several observatories in particular by THEMIS. One day before the disappearance, H$\alpha$ observations showed up and down flows in adjacent locations along the filament, which suggest plasma motions along twisted flux rope. THEMIS and GONG observations show shearing photospheric motions leading to magnetic flux canceling around barbs. STEREO A, B spacecraft with separation angle 52.4 degrees, showed quite different views of this untwisting flux rope in He II 304 \AA\ images. Here, we reconstruct the 3D geometry of the filament during its eruption phase using STEREO EUV He II 304 \AA\ images and find that the filament was highly inclined to the solar normal. The He II 304 \AA\ movies show individual threads, which oscillate and rise to an altitude of about 120 Mm with apparent velocities of about 100 km s$^{-1}$, during the rapid evolution phase. Finally, as the flux rope expands into the corona, the filament disappears by becoming optically thin to undetectable levels. No CME was detected by STEREO, only a faint CME was recorded by LASCO at the beginning of the disappearance phase at 02:00 UT, which could be due to partial filament eruption. Further, STEREO Fe XII 195 \AA\ images showed bright loops beneath the filament prior to the disappearance phase, suggesting magnetic reconnection below the flux rope

Tamoxifen for prevention of breast cancer: extended long-term follow-up of the IBIS-I breast cancer prevention trial

© Cuzick et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(14)71171-

Initiation and propagation of coronal mass ejections

This paper reviews recent progress in the research on the initiation and propagation of CMEs. In the initiation part, several trigger mechanisms are discussed; In the propagation part, the observations and modelings of EIT waves/dimmings, as the EUV counterparts of CMEs, are described.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure, an invited review, to appear in J. Astrophys. Astro

Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion therapy is associated with reduced retinopathy progression compared with multiple daily injections of insulin

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to compare diabetic retinopathy outcomes in people with type 1 diabetes following introduction of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) therapy with outcomes in people receiving continuing therapy with multiple daily insulin injections (MDI). METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study using the Scottish Care Information – Diabetes database for retinal screening outcomes and HbA(1c) changes in 204 adults commenced on CSII therapy between 2013 and 2016, and 211 adults eligible for CSII during the same period but who continued on MDI therapy. Diabetic retinopathy progression (time to minimum one-grade worsening in diabetic retinopathy from baseline grading) was plotted for CSII and MDI cohorts using Kaplan–Meier curves, and outcomes were compared using multivariate Cox regression analysis adjusting for age, sex, baseline HbA(1c), blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking status and socioeconomic quintile. Impact of baseline HbA(1c) and change in HbA(1c) on diabetic retinopathy progression was assessed within CSII and MDI cohorts. RESULTS: CSII participants were significantly younger, were from less socially deprived areas, and had lower HbA(1c) and higher diastolic BP at baseline. There was a larger reduction in HbA(1c) at 1 year in those on CSII vs MDI (−6 mmol/mol [−0.6%] vs −2 mmol/mol [−0.2%], p < 0.01). Diabetic retinopathy progression occurred in a smaller proportion of adults following commencement of CSII vs continued MDI therapy over mean 2.3 year follow-up (26.5% vs 18.6%, p = 0.0097). High baseline HbA(1c) (75 mmol/mol [9%]) was associated with diabetic retinopathy progression in the MDI group (p = 0.0049) but not the CSII group (p = 0.93). Change in HbA(1c) at follow-up, irrespective of baseline glycaemic status, did not significantly affect diabetic retinopathy progression in either group. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: CSII was associated with reduced diabetic retinopathy progression compared with continued MDI therapy, and may be protective against diabetic retinopathy progression for those with high baseline HbA(1c). Progression of diabetic retinopathy over 3 years was not associated with a change in HbA(1c). GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00125-021-05456-w

Turbulence in the Solar Atmosphere: Manifestations and Diagnostics via Solar Image Processing

Intermittent magnetohydrodynamical turbulence is most likely at work in the magnetized solar atmosphere. As a result, an array of scaling and multi-scaling image-processing techniques can be used to measure the expected self-organization of solar magnetic fields. While these techniques advance our understanding of the physical system at work, it is unclear whether they can be used to predict solar eruptions, thus obtaining a practical significance for space weather. We address part of this problem by focusing on solar active regions and by investigating the usefulness of scaling and multi-scaling image-processing techniques in solar flare prediction. Since solar flares exhibit spatial and temporal intermittency, we suggest that they are the products of instabilities subject to a critical threshold in a turbulent magnetic configuration. The identification of this threshold in scaling and multi-scaling spectra would then contribute meaningfully to the prediction of solar flares. We find that the fractal dimension of solar magnetic fields and their multi-fractal spectrum of generalized correlation dimensions do not have significant predictive ability. The respective multi-fractal structure functions and their inertial-range scaling exponents, however, probably provide some statistical distinguishing features between flaring and non-flaring active regions. More importantly, the temporal evolution of the above scaling exponents in flaring active regions probably shows a distinct behavior starting a few hours prior to a flare and therefore this temporal behavior may be practically useful in flare prediction. The results of this study need to be validated by more comprehensive works over a large number of solar active regions.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figure

Coping style and health-related quality of life in caregivers of epilepsy patients

Epilepsy has a significant impact on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of patients and personal coping style is an important determinant. Less is known about home caregivers. This study investigates HRQOL and coping style of both patients and caregivers and their interaction. Epilepsy patients attending the outpatient clinic of the University Medical Centre in Utrecht and their caregivers were sent EQ5D and RAND-36 questionnaires. The Utrecht Coping List was used to chart personal coping styles. HRQOL scores of patients and caregivers were compared to the general Dutch population. The association between patient and caregiver HRQOL scores was calculated. A stepwise backward multivariate linear regression analysis was used to explain variances in caregiver HRQOL. Eighty-six couples (49%) returned all questionnaires. Caregiver HRQOL scores were comparable to the general Dutch population (EQ5D: 0.88–0.88; p = 0.90, RAND-36 MCS: −2 points; p = 0.16), while patients HRQOL scores were lower (EQ5D: 0.79; p < 0.01, RAND-36 MCS −10 points; p < 0.01). However, on several specific domains, associations between patient and caregiver HRQOL scores within couples were found. Passive coping style explained 50% of variation in HRQOL scores of caregivers. As a group, caregivers of epilepsy patients have normal HRQOL, but there are significant associations between patient and caregiver HRQOL scores. Improving caregiver HRQOL through interventions on coping style might benefit patients as well. Recognizing personal coping styles of both patient and caregiver should be part of a patient-oriented approach in treatment