Mathematical modelling long-term effects of replacing Prevnar7 with Prevnar13 on invasive pneumococcal diseases in England and Wales

England and Wales recently replaced the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) with its 13-valent equivalent (PCV13), partly based on projections from mathematical models of the long-term impact of such a switch compared to ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether. A compartmental deterministic model was used to estimate parameters governing transmission of infection and competition between different groups of pneumococcal serotypes prior to the introduction of PCV13. The best-fitting parameters were used in an individual based model to describe pneumococcal transmission dynamics and effects of various options for the vaccination programme change in England and Wales. A number of scenarios were conducted using (i) different assumptions about the number of invasive pneumococcal disease cases adjusted for the increasing trend in disease incidence prior to PCV7 introduction in England and Wales, and (ii) a range of values representing serotype replacement induced by vaccination of the additional six serotypes in PCV13. Most of the scenarios considered suggest that ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use would cause an increase in invasive pneumococcal disease incidence, while replacing PCV7 with PCV13 would cause an overall decrease. However, the size of this reduction largely depends on the level of competition induced by the additional serotypes in PCV13. The model estimates that over 20 years of PCV13 vaccination, around 5000–62000 IPD cases could be prevented compared to stopping pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether. Despite inevitable uncertainty around serotype replacement effects following introduction of PCV13, the model suggests a reduction in overall invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in all cases. Our results provide useful evidence on the benefits of PCV13 to countries replacing or considering replacing PCV7 with PCV13, as well as data that can be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such a switch

The changing epidemiology of varicella and herpes zoster in Hong Kong before universal varicella vaccination in 2014.

In Hong Kong, universal varicella vaccination started in July 2014. Before this, children could receive varicella vaccine via the private market. We analysed the epidemiology of varicella and zoster before universal vaccination. We estimated varicella vaccination coverage through surveys in preschool children. We estimated the burden of varicella and zoster with varicella notifications from 1999/00 to 2013/14, Accident and Emergency Department (A&E) attendance and inpatient admissions to public hospitals from 2004/05 to 2013/14. We fitted a catalytic model to serological data on antibodies against varicella-zoster virus to estimate the force of infection. We found that varicella vaccination coverage gradually increased to about 50% before programme inception. In children younger than 5 years, the annual rate of varicella notifications, varicella admission and zoster A&E attendance generally declined. The annual notification, A&E attendance and hospitalisation rate of varicella and zoster generally increased for individuals between 10 and 59 years old. Varicella serology indicated an age shift during the study period towards a higher proportion of infections in slightly older individuals, but the change was most notable before vaccine licensure. In conclusion, we observed a shift in the burden of varicella to slightly older age groups with a corresponding increase in incidence but it cannot necessarily be attributed to private market vaccine coverage alone. Increasing varicella vaccination uptake in the private market might affect varicella transmission and epidemiology, but not to the level of interrupting transmission

Global and national estimates of the number of healthcare workers at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection

In order to promote equitable and efficient allocation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, the World Health Organization (WHO) Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (WHO-SAGE-I) has published a 'Roadmap for Prioritizing Uses of COVID-19 Vaccines in the Context of Limited Supply', outlining which groups should be prioritized under various supply scenarios [1]. Healthcare workers (HCWs) at high or very high risk of acquiring and transmitting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) are included in Stage I when supply is very limited

Characteristics of human encounters and social mixing patterns relevant to infectious diseases spread by close contact: a survey in Southwest Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Quantification of human interactions relevant to infectious disease transmission through social contact is central to predict disease dynamics, yet data from low-resource settings remain scarce. METHODS: We undertook a social contact survey in rural Uganda, whereby participants were asked to recall details about the frequency, type, and socio-demographic characteristics of any conversational encounter that lasted for ≥5 min (henceforth defined as 'contacts') during the previous day. An estimate of the number of 'casual contacts' (i.e. < 5 min) was also obtained. RESULTS: In total, 566 individuals were included in the study. On average participants reported having routine contact with 7.2 individuals (range 1-25). Children aged 5-14 years had the highest frequency of contacts and the elderly (≥65 years) the fewest (P < 0.001). A strong age-assortative pattern was seen, particularly outside the household and increasingly so for contacts occurring further away from home. Adults aged 25-64 years tended to travel more often and further than others, and males travelled more frequently than females. CONCLUSION: Our study provides detailed information on contact patterns and their spatial characteristics in an African setting. It therefore fills an important knowledge gap that will help more accurately predict transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies in such areas

The Efficacy and Duration of Protection of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines Against Nasopharyngeal Carriage: A Meta-Regression Model.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) reduce disease largely through their impact on nasopharyngeal (NP) carriage acquisition of Streptococcus pneumoniae, a precondition for developing any form of pneumococcal disease. We aimed to estimate the vaccine efficacy (VEC) and duration of protection of PCVs against S. pneumoniae carriage acquisition through meta-regression models. METHODS: We identified intervention studies providing NP carriage estimates among vaccinated and unvaccinated children at any time after completion of a full vaccination schedule. We calculated VEC for PCV7 serotypes, grouped as well as individually, and explored cross-protective efficacy against 6A. Efficacy estimates over time were obtained using a Bayesian meta-logistic regression approach, with time since completion of vaccination as a covariate. RESULTS: We used data from 22 carriage surveys (15 independent studies) from 5 to 64 months after the last PCV dose, including 14,298 children. The aggregate VEC for all PCV7 serotypes 6 months after completion of the vaccination schedule was 57% (95% credible interval: 50-65%), varying by serotype from 38% (19F) to 80%. Our model provides evidence of sustained protection of PCVs for several years, with an aggregate VEC of 42% (95% credible interval: 19-54%) at 5 years, although the waning differed between serotypes. We also found evidence of cross-protection against 6A, with a VEC of 39% 6 months after a complete schedule, decreasing to 0 within 5 years postvaccination. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that PCVs confer reasonable protection against acquisition of pneumococcal carriage of the 7 studied serotypes, for several years after vaccination, albeit with differences across serotypes.<br/

S100A9 is indispensable for survival of pneumococcal pneumonia in mice

S100A8/A9 has important immunomodulatory roles in antibacterial defense, but its relevance in focal pneumonia caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae (S. pneumoniae) is understudied. We show that S100A9 was significantly increased in BAL fluids of patients with bacterial but not viral pneumonia and correlated with procalcitonin and sequential organ failure assessment scores. Mice deficient in S100A9 exhibited drastically elevated Zn$^{2+}$ levels in lungs, which led to bacterial outgrowth and significantly reduced survival. In addition, reduced survival of S100A9 KO mice was characterized by excessive release of neutrophil elastase, which resulted in degradation of opsonophagocytically important collectins surfactant proteins A and D. All of these features were attenuated in S. pneumoniae-challenged chimeric WT→S100A9 KO mice. Similarly, therapy of S. pneumoniae-infected S100A9 KO mice with a mutant S100A8/A9 protein showing increased half-life significantly decreased lung bacterial loads and lung injury. Collectively, S100A9 controls central antibacterial immune mechanisms of the lung with essential relevance to survival of pneumococcal pneumonia. Moreover, S100A9 appears to be a promising biomarker to distinguish patients with bacterial from those with viral pneumonia. Trial registration: Clinical Trials register (DRKS00000620)

Sustained reduction in vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease despite waning effects of a catch-up campaign in Kilifi, Kenya: A mathematical model based on pre-vaccination data

Background: In 2011, Kenya introduced the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine together with a catch-up campaign for children aged <5 years in Kilifi County. In a post-vaccination surveillance study based in Kilifi, there was a substantial decline in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). However, given the continued circulation of the vaccine serotypes, it is possible that vaccine-serotype disease may re-emerge once the effects of the catch-up campaign wear off.Methods: We developed, a compartmental, age-structured dynamic model of pneumococcal carriage and invasive disease for three serotype groups: the 10-valent vaccine serotypes and two groups of non vaccine serotypes based on their susceptibility to mutual competition. The model was calibrated to age- and serotype-specific data on carriage and IPD in the pre-vaccination era and used to predict carriage prevalence and IPD up to ten years post-vaccination in Kilifi. The model was validated against the observed carriage prevalence after vaccine introduction.Results: The model predicts a sustained reduction in vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage prevalence from 33% to 8% in infants and from 30% to 8% in 1-5 year olds over the 10-year period following vaccine introduction. The incidence of IPD is predicted to decline across all age groups resulting in an overall reduction of 56% in the population, corresponding to 10.4 cases per 100,000 per year. The vaccine-type IPD incidence is estimated to decline by 83% while non-vaccine-type IPD incidence is predicted to increase by 52%. The model's predictions of carriage prevalence agrees well with the observed data in the first five years post-vaccination.Conclusion: We predict a sustained and substantial decline in IPD through PCV vaccination and that the current regimen is insufficient to fully eliminate vaccine-serotype circulation in the model. We show that the observed impact is likely to be sustained despite waning effects of the catch-up campaign. (C) 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd

Pneumococcal Serotypes Colonise the Nasopharynx in Children at Different Densities.

Prevalence of pneumococcal serotypes in carriage and disease has been described but absolute serotype colonisation densities have not been reported. 515 paediatric nasal swab DNA extracts were subjected to lytA qPCR and molecular serotyping by microarray. Absolute serotype densities were derived from total pneumococcal density (qPCR cycle threshold and standard curve) and relative abundance (microarray) and varied widely. Compared to all serotype densities observed, the strongest evidence of differences was seen for serotypes 21 and 35B (higher) and 3, 38 and non-typeables (lower) (p<0.05) with a similar hierarchy when only a single serotype carriage was assessed. There was no evidence of any overall density differences between children with single or multiple serotypes detected but serotypes with mid-range densities were more prevalent. The hierarchy of distinct pneumococcal serotype carriage densities described here for the first time, may help explain the dynamics of transmission between children

Infant contact in day-care centres in Vietnam: A cross-sectional study to understand infant infection risk

Background: Infant contact information (skin-to-skin contact between infants and others) is important to understand Streptococcus pneumoniae transmission patterns. A few studies have investigated infant contact patterns by asking the mother/guardian to record all contacts a child makes in one day. However, this approach does not capture contact behaviour in day-care. Our study describes the frequency and nature of physical contacts of infants in day-care to understand infant infection risk in day-care in Nha Trang, central Vietnam. Methods: This cross-sectional study enrolled infants aged less than 12 months, attending 10 randomly selected day-care centres in Nha Trang. Physical contacts of each infant for one day at the day-care centre were observed and recorded. The mean number of contacts of infants and its factors were assessed using negative binomial regression. Results: In total 14 infants, aged 6 to 11 months, were enrolled, and a total of 96 contacts were observed. The mean number of contacts an infant made in one day was 6.9. Infants who walked independently (age-adjusted rate ratio 1.68, 95% confidence interval 1.06-2.68) and those cared for in a larger group (1.99, 1.42-2.79) had more contacts at day-care. About 50% of infants made contact with at least one person from a commune different from the infant\u27s, and 50% made contact with at least one other infant at day-care. Conclusion: This study found that day-care attendance may be one factor that increases contact rates of infants in Nha Trang and diversifies them in terms of age and geographical spread. In this study, day-care attendance not only increased contact rates beyond those usually experienced by young children cared at home but specifically increased the contact rates with other children and adults from other communes. Day-care may play a key role in the transmission of respiratory pathogens like Streptococcus pneumoniae to infants

Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of satellite-based excess mortality data in 2020

Background: In countries with weak surveillance systems, confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are likely to underestimate the pandemic’s death toll. Many countries also have incomplete vital registration systems, hampering excess mortality estimation. Here, we fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery data of cemeteries in Mogadishu, Somalia during 2020 to estimate the date of introduction and other epidemiologic parameters of the early spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in this low-income, crisis-affected setting. Methods: We performed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting with an age-structured compartmental COVID-19 model to provide median estimates and credible intervals for the date of introduction, the basic reproduction number (R0) and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) up to August 2020. Results: Under the assumption that excess deaths in Mogadishu March-August 2020 were attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infections, we arrived at median estimates of November-December 2019 for the date of introduction and low R0 estimates (1.4-1.7) reflecting the slow and early rise and long plateau of excess deaths. The date of introduction, the amount of external seeding, the infection fatality rate (IFR) and the effectiveness of NPIs are correlated parameters and not separately identifiable in a narrow range from deaths data. Nevertheless, to obtain introduction dates no earlier than November 2019 a higher population-wide IFR (≥0.7%) had to be assumed than obtained by applying age-specific IFRs from high-income countries to Somalia’s age structure. Conclusions: Model fitting of excess mortality data across a range of plausible values of the IFR and the amount of external seeding suggests an early SARS-CoV-2 introduction event may have occurred in Somalia in November-December 2019. Transmissibility in the first epidemic wave was estimated to be lower than in European settings. Alternatively, there was another, unidentified source of sustained excess mortality in Mogadishu from March to August 2020