Food fussiness and food neophobia share a common etiology in early childhood

BACKGROUND: 'Food fussiness' (FF) is the tendency to be highly selective about which foods one is willing to eat, and emerges in early childhood; 'food neophobia' (FN) is a closely related characteristic but specifically refers to rejection of unfamiliar food. These behaviors are associated, but the extent to which their etiological architecture overlaps is unknown. The objective of this study was to quantify the relative contribution of genetic and environmental influences to variation in FF and FN in early childhood; and to establish the extent to which they share common genetic and environmental influences. METHOD: Participants were 1,921 families with 16-month-old twins from the Gemini birth cohort. Parents completed the Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire which included three FF items and four FN items. Bivariate quantitative genetic modeling was used to quantify: (a) genetic and environmental contributions to variation in FF and FN; and (b) the extent to which genetic or environmental influences on FF and FN are shared across the traits. RESULTS: Food fussiness and FN were strongly correlated (r = .72, p < .001). Proportions of variation in FF were equally explained by genetic (.46; 95% CI: 0.41-0.52) and shared environmental influences (.46; 95% CI: 0.41-0.51). Shared environmental effects accounted for a significantly lower proportion of variation in FN (.22; 95% CI: 0.14-0.30), but genetic influences were not significantly different from those on FF (.58, 95% CI: 0.50-0.67). FF and FN largely shared a common etiology, indicated by high genetic (.73; 95% CI: 0.67-0.78) and shared environmental correlations (.78; 95% CI: 0.69-0.86) across the two traits. CONCLUSIONS: Food fussiness and FN both show considerable heritability at 16 months but shared environmental factors, for example the home environment, influenced more interindividual differences in the expression of FF than in FN. FF and FN largely share a common etiology

Behavioural susceptibility theory: the role of appetite in genetic susceptibility to obesity in early life

Excess weight gained during the early years and, in particular, rapid weight gain in the first 2 years of life, are a major risk factors for adult obesity. The growing consensus is that childhood obesity develops from a complex interaction between genetic susceptibility and exposure to an 'obesogenic' environment. Behavioural susceptibility theory (BST) was developed to explain the nature of this gene-environment interaction, and why the 'obesogenic' environment does not affect all children equally. It hypothesizes that inherited variation in appetite, which is present from birth, determines why some infants and children overeat, and others do not, in response to environmental opportunity. That is, those who inherit genetic variants promoting an avid appetite are vulnerable to overeating and developing obesity, while those who are genetically predisposed to have a smaller appetite and lower interest in food are protected from obesity-or even at risk of being underweight. We review the breadth of research to-date that has contributed to the evidence base for BST, focusing on early life, and discuss implications and future directions for research and theory. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Causes of obesity: theories, conjectures and evidence (Part I)'

The association between childhood adiposity and appetite assessed using the Child Eating Behavior Questionnaire and Baby Eating Behavior Questionnaire: A systematic review and meta-analysis

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to quantify associations between Child Eating Behavior Questionnaire (CEBQ) and Baby Eating Behavior Questionnaire (BEBQ) appetitive traits (food approach: Food Responsiveness [FR], Enjoyment of Food [EF], Emotional Overeating [EOE], and Desire to Drink [DD]; food avoidant: Satiety Responsiveness [SR], Slowness in Eating [SE], Emotional Undereating [EUE], Food Fussiness [FF]) and measures of child adiposity. Searches of six databases up to February 2019 identified 72 studies (CEBQ, n = 67; BEBQ, n = 5), and 27 met the meta-analysis criteria. For cross-sectional studies reporting unadjusted correlations with body mass index z-scores (BMIz) (n = 19), all traits were associated with BMIz in expected directions (positive: FR, EF, EOE, and DD; negative: SR, SE, EUE, and FF). Pooled estimates ranged from r = 0.22 (FR) to r = −0.21 (SR). For cross-sectional studies reporting regression coefficients (n = 10), three traits (FR, EF, and EOE) associated positively, and three traits (SR, SE, and EUE) negatively, with BMIz (β = −0.31 [SR] to β = 0.22 [FR]). Eleven studies reported prospective relationships from appetite to adiposity measures for six scales (positive: FR, EF, EOE, and DD; negative: SR and SE). Five studies reported relationships from adiposity measures to appetite for five traits (positive: FR, EF, and EOE; negative: SR). All BEBQ traits were consistently cross-sectionally associated with adiposity measures. Overall, CEBQ/BEBQ-assessed appetitive traits show consistent cross-sectional relationships with measures of child adiposity

Behavioural susceptibility theory: the role of appetite in genetic susceptibility to obesity in early life

Excess weight gained during the early years and, in particular, rapid weight gain in the first 2 years of life, are a major risk factors for adult obesity. The growing consensus is that childhood obesity develops from a complex interaction between genetic susceptibility and exposure to an ‘obesogenic’ environment. Behavioural susceptibility theory (BST) was developed to explain the nature of this gene–environment interaction, and why the ‘obesogenic’ environment does not affect all children equally. It hypothesizes that inherited variation in appetite, which is present from birth, determines why some infants and children overeat, and others do not, in response to environmental opportunity. That is, those who inherit genetic variants promoting an avid appetite are vulnerable to overeating and developing obesity, while those who are genetically predisposed to have a smaller appetite and lower interest in food are protected from obesity—or even at risk of being underweight. We review the breadth of research to-date that has contributed to the evidence base for BST, focusing on early life, and discuss implications and future directions for research and theory

Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be Conservative

This article proposes a unifying theory, or the Golden Rule, or forecasting. The Golden Rule of Forecasting is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek out and use all knowledge relevant to the problem, including knowledge of methods validated for the situation. Twenty-eight guidelines are logically deduced from the Golden Rule. A review of evidence identified 105 papers with experimental comparisons; 102 support the guidelines. Ignoring a single guideline increased forecast error by more than two-fifths on average. Ignoring the Golden Rule is likely to harm accuracy most when the situation is uncertain and complex, and when bias is likely. Non-experts who use the Golden Rule can identify dubious forecasts quickly and inexpensively. To date, ignorance of research findings, bias, sophisticated statistical procedures, and the proliferation of big data, have led forecasters to violate the Golden Rule. As a result, despite major advances in evidence-based forecasting methods, forecasting practice in many fields has failed to improve over the past half-century

The role of interleukin-1β as a predictive biomarker and potential therapeutic target during clinical ex vivo lung perfusion

BACKGROUND: Extended criteria donor lungs deemed unsuitable for immediate transplantation can be reconditioned using ex vivo lung perfusion (EVLP). Objective identification of which donor lungs can be successfully reconditioned and will function well post-operatively has not been established. This study assessed the predictive value of markers of inflammation and tissue injury in donor lungs undergoing EVLP as part of the DEVELOP-UK study. METHODS: Longitudinal samples of perfusate, bronchoalveolar lavage, and tissue from 42 human donor lungs undergoing clinical EVLP assessments were analyzed for markers of inflammation and tissue injury. Levels were compared according to EVLP success and post-transplant outcomes. Neutrophil adhesion to human pulmonary microvascular endothelial cells (HPMECs) conditioned with perfusates from EVLP assessments was investigated on a microfluidic platform. RESULTS: The most effective markers to differentiate between in-hospital survival and non-survival post-transplant were perfusate interleukin (IL)-1β (area under the curve = 1.00, p = 0.002) and tumor necrosis factor-α (area under the curve = 0.95, p = 0.006) after 30 minutes of EVLP. IL-1β levels in perfusate correlated with upregulation of intracellular adhesion molecule-1 in donor lung vasculature (R(2) = 0.68, p < 0.001) and to a lesser degree upregulation of intracellular adhesion molecule-1 (R(2) = 0.30, p = 0.001) and E-selectin (R(2) = 0.29, p = 0.001) in conditioned HPMECs and neutrophil adhesion to conditioned HPMECs (R(2) = 0.33, p < 0.001). Neutralization of IL-1β in perfusate effectively inhibited neutrophil adhesion to conditioned HPMECs (91% reduction, p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Donor lungs develop a detectable and discriminatory pro-inflammatory signature in perfusate during EVLP. Blocking the IL-1β pathway during EVLP may reduce endothelial activation and subsequent neutrophil adhesion on reperfusion; this requires further investigation in vivo

Babes, bones, and isotopes: a stable isotope investigation on non-adults from Aventicum, Roman Switzerland (1st-3rd c. CE)

The study of infant feeding practices in archaeological populations can aid in the understanding of cultural attitudes towards dietary choices and how specific circumstances experienced by mothers and their offspring influence childhood health and survivorship. Breastfeeding and weaning patterns have received increased interest in Roman bioarchaeology, especially through the application of stable isotopic investigation of nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) values. This study presents the stable isotopic results of the first Roman bone sample analyzed from Switzerland (30 non-adults and 9 females), allowing us an unprecedented insight into health and diet at the site of Aventicum/Avenches, the capital city of the territory of Helvetii in Roman times (1st-3rd c. AD). The fact that the majority of the non-adult samples subject to stable isotope analysis were perinates, highlights the complex relationship between their δ15N and δ13C values and those of adult females, as different factors, including variation of fetal and maternal stable isotope values, the possible effects of intrauterine growth, as well as maternal/fetal disease and/or nutritional stress (e.g. nutritional deficiencies such as scurvy, parasitic infections, such as malaria), could have influenced the observed elevated δ15N values

Child and parent predictors of picky eating from preschool to school age

Background: Picky eating is prevalent in childhood. Because pickiness concerns parents and is associated with nutrient deficiency and psychological problems, the antecedents of pickiness need to be identified. We propose an etiological model of picky eating involving child temperament, sensory sensitivity and parent-child interaction. Methods: Two cohorts of 4-year olds (born 2003 or 2004) in Trondheim, Norway were invited to participate (97.2% attendance; 82.0% consent rate, n = 2475) and a screen-stratified subsample of 1250 children was recruited. We interviewed 997 parents about their child’s pickiness and sensory sensitivity using the Preschool Age Psychiatric Assessment (PAPA). Two years later, 795 of the parents completed the interview. The Children’s Behavior Questionnaire (CBQ) was used to assess children’s temperament. Parent- child interactions were videotaped and parental sensitivity (i.e., parental awareness and appropriate responsiveness to children’s verbal and nonverbal cues) and structuring were rated using the Emotional Availability Scales (EAS). Results: At both measurement times, 26% of the children were categorized as picky eaters. Pickiness was moderately stable from preschool to school age (OR = 5.92, CI = 3.95, 8.86), and about half of those who displayed pickiness at age 4 were also picky eaters two years later. While accounting for pickiness at age 4, sensory sensitivity at age 4 predicted pickiness at age 6 (OR = 1.25, CI = 1.08, 2.23), whereas temperamental surgency (OR = 0.88, CI = 0.64, 1.22) and negative affectivity (OR = 1.17, CI = 0.75, 1.84) did not. Parental structuring was found to reduce the risk of children’s picky eating two years later (OR = 0.90, CI = 0.82, 0.99), whereas parental sensitivity increased the odds for pickiness (OR = 1.10, CI = 1.00, 1.21). Conclusions: Although pickiness is stable from preschool to school age, children who are more sensory sensitive are at higher risk for pickiness two years later, as are children whose parents display relatively higher levels of sensitivity and lower levels of structuring. Our findings suggest that interventions targeting children’s sensory sensitivity, as well as parental sensitivity and structuring, might reduce the risk of childhood pickiness. Health care providers should support parents of picky eaters in repeatedly offering unfamiliar and rejected foods to their children without pressure and acknowledging child autonomy

Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination