Estimating demographic parameters using a combination of known-fate and open N-mixture models

1. Accurate estimates of demographic parameters are required to infer appropriate ecological relationships and inform management actions. Recently developed N-mixture models use count data from unmarked individuals to estimate demographic parameters, but a joint approach combining the strengths of both analytical tools has not been developed. 2. We present an integrated model combining known-fate and open N-mixture models, allowing the estimation of detection probability, recruitment, and the joint estimation of survival. We first use a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the model relative to known values. We then provide an applied example using 4 years of wolf survival data consisting of relocations of radio-collared wolves within packs and counts of associated pack-mates. The model is implemented in both maximum-likelihood and Bayesian frameworks using a new R package kfdnm and the BUGS language. 3. The simulation results indicated that the integrated model was able to reliably recover parameters with no evidence of bias, and estimates were more precise under the joint model as expected. Results from the applied example indicated that the marked sample of wolves was biased towards individuals with higher apparent survival rates (including losses due to mortality and emigration) than the unmarked pack-mates, suggesting estimates of apparent survival based on joint estimation could be more representative of the overall population. Estimates of recruitment were similar to direct observations of pup production, and overlap of the credible intervals suggested no clear differences in recruitment rates. 4. Our integrated model is a practical approach for increasing the amount of information gained from future and existing radio-telemetry and other similar mark-resight datasets.Comment: 22 pages, 2 figures, 2 appendice

A genetic assessment of parentage in the blackspot sergeant damselfish, Abudefduf sordidus (Pisces: Pomacentridae)

Microsatellite markers were used to investigate the reproductive behavior of the damselfish Abudefduf sordidus at Johnston Atoll, Central Pacific Ocean. Genetic results indicated that ten males maintained guardianship over their nest territories for up to nine nest cycles during a 3.5 month period. Genotypes of 1025 offspring sampled from 68 nests (composed of 129 clutches) were consistent with 95% of the offspring being sired by the guardian male. Offspring lacking paternal alleles at two or more loci were found in 19 clutches, indicating that reproductive parasitism and subsequent alloparental care occurred. Reconstructed maternal genotypes allowed the identification of a minimum of 74 different females that spawned with these ten territorial males. Males were polygynous, mating with multiple females within and between cycles. Genetic data from nests, which consisted of up to four clutches during a reproductive cycle, indicated that each clutch usually had only one maternal contributor and that different clutches each had different dams. Females displayed sequential polyandry spawning with one male within a cycle but switched males in subsequent spawning cycles. These results highlight new findings regarding male parasitic spawning, polygyny, and sequential polyandry in a marine fish with exclusive male paternal care.Published versio

Imputation Approaches for Animal Movement Modeling

The analysis of telemetry data is common in animal ecological studies. While the collection of telemetry data for individual animals has improved dramatically, the methods to properly account for inherent uncertainties (e.g., measurement error, dependence, barriers to movement) have lagged behind. Still, many new statistical approaches have been developed to infer unknown quantities affecting animal movement or predict movement based on telemetry data. Hierarchical statistical models are useful to account for some of the aforementioned uncertainties, as well as provide population-level inference, but they often come with an increased computational burden. For certain types of statistical models, it is straightforward to provide inference if the latent true animal trajectory is known, but challenging otherwise. In these cases, approaches related to multiple imputation have been employed to account for the uncertainty associated with our knowledge of the latent trajectory. Despite the increasing use of imputation approaches for modeling animal movement, the general sensitivity and accuracy of these methods have not been explored in detail. We provide an introduction to animal movement modeling and describe how imputation approaches may be helpful for certain types of models. We also assess the performance of imputation approaches in a simulation study. Our simulation study suggests that inference for model parameters directly related to the location of an individual may be more accurate than inference for parameters associated with higher-order processes such as velocity or acceleration. Finally, we apply these methods to analyze a telemetry data set involving northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) in the Bering Sea

On the exponential convergence to a limit of solutions of perturbed linear Volterra equations

We consider a system of perturbed Volterra integro-differential equations for which the solution approaches a nontrivial limit and the difference between the solution and its limit is integrable. Under the condition that the second moment of the kernel is integrable we show that the solution decays exponentially to its limit if and only if the kernel is exponentially integrable and the tail of the perturbation decays exponentially

Are Amphipod invaders a threat to the regional biodiversity? Conservation prospects for the Loire River

The impact of invasions on local biodiversity is well established, but their impact on regional biodiversity has so far been only sketchily documented. To address this question, we studied the impact at various observation scales (ranging from the microhabitat to the whole catchment) of successive arrivals of non-native amphipods on the amphipod assemblage of the Loire River basin in France. Amphipod assemblages were studied at 225 sites covering the whole Loire catchment. Non-native species were dominant at all sites in the main channel of the Loire River, but native species were still present at most of the sites. We found that the invaders have failed to colonize most of tributaries of the Loire River. At the regional scale, we found that since the invaders first arrived 25 years ago, the global amphipod diversity has increased by 33% (from 8 to 12 species) due to the arrival of non-native species. We discuss the possibility that the lack of any loss of biodiversity may be directly linked to the presence of refuges at the microhabitat scale in the Loire channel and in the tributaries, which invasive species have been unable to colonize. The restoration of river quality could increase the number of refuges for native species, thus reducing the impact of invader

Core/Combustor-Noise Baseline Measurements for the DGEN Aeropropulsion Research Turbofan

Contributions from the combustor to the overall propulsion noise of civilian transport aircraft are starting to become important due to turbofan design trends and advances in mitigation of other noise sources. Future propulsion systems for ultra-efficient commercial air vehicles are projected to be of increasingly higher bypass ratio from larger fans combined with much smaller cores, with ultra-clean burning fuel-flexible combustors. Unless effective noise-eduction strategies are developed, combustor noise is likely to become a prominent contributor to overall airport community noise in the future. The new NASA DGEN Aeropropulsion Research Turbofan (DART) is a cost-efficient testbed for the study of core-noise physics and mitigation. This paper describes the recently completed DART core/combustor-noise baseline test in the NASA GRC Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Laboratory (AAPL). Acoustic data was simultaneously acquired using the AAPL overhead microphone array in the engine aft quadrant far field, a single midfield microphone, and two semi-infinite-tube unsteady pressure sensors at the core-nozzle exit. Combustor-noise components of measured total-noise signatures were educed using a two-signal source-separation method and are found to occur in the expected frequency range. The acoustic data compares well with results from a limited 2014 feasibility test and will serve as a high-quality baseline for future research using the DART. The research described herein is aligned with the NASA Ultra-Efficient Commercial Transport strategic thrust and is supported by the NASA Advanced Air Vehicle Program, Advanced Air Transport Technology Project, under the Aircraft Noise Reduction Subproject