Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth

This paper re-examines the issue of the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth, using new econometric techniques that provide appropriate procedures for estimation and inference. The threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slows growth is estimated at 1-3 percent for industrial countries and 11-12 percent for developing countries. The negative and significant relationship between inflation and growth, for inflation rates above the threshold level, is quite robust with respect to the estimation method, perturbations in the location of the threshold level, the exclusion of high-inflation observations, data frequency, and alternative specifications. Copyright 2001, International Monetary Fund

Semiparametric Inference and Lower Bounds for Real Elliptically Symmetric Distributions

This paper has a twofold goal. The first aim is to provide a deeper understanding of the family of the Real Elliptically Symmetric (RES) distributions by investigating their intrinsic semiparametric nature. The second aim is to derive a semiparametric lower bound for the estimation of the parametric component of the model. The RES distributions represent a semiparametric model where the parametric part is given by the mean vector and by the scatter matrix while the non-parametric, infinite-dimensional, part is represented by the density generator. Since, in practical applications, we are often interested only in the estimation of the parametric component, the density generator can be considered as nuisance. The first part of the paper is dedicated to conveniently place the RES distributions in the framework of the semiparametric group models. The second part of the paper, building on the mathematical tools previously introduced, the Constrained Semiparametric Cram\'{e}r-Rao Bound (CSCRB) for the estimation of the mean vector and of the constrained scatter matrix of a RES distributed random vector is introduced. The CSCRB provides a lower bound on the Mean Squared Error (MSE) of any robust $M$-estimator of mean vector and scatter matrix when no a-priori information on the density generator is available. A closed form expression for the CSCRB is derived. Finally, in simulations, we assess the statistical efficiency of the Tyler's and Huber's scatter matrix $M$-estimators with respect to the CSCRB.Comment: This paper has been accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Signal Processin

Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis

The paper estimates export demand elasticities for a large number of developing and industrial countries, using time-series techniques that account for the nonstationarity in the data. The average long-run price and income elasticities are found to be approximately -1 and 1.5, respectively. Thus, exports do react to both the trade partners' income and to relative prices. Africa faces the lowest income elasticities for its exports, while Asia has both the highest income and price elasticities. The price and income elasticity estimates have good statistical properties. Copyright 1999, International Monetary Fund

Iron for Africa-Report of an Expert Workshop.

Scientific experts from nine countries gathered to share their views and experience around iron interventions in Africa. Inappropriate eating habits, infections and parasitism are responsible for significant prevalence of iron deficiency, but reliable and country-comparable prevalence estimates are lacking: improvements in biomarkers and cut-offs values adapted to context of use are needed. Benefits of iron interventions on growth and development are indisputable and outweigh risks, which exist in populations with a high infectious burden. Indeed, pathogen growth may increase with enhanced available iron, calling for caution and preventive measures where malaria or other infections are prevalent. Most African countries programmatically fortify flour and supplement pregnant women, while iron deficiency in young children is rather addressed at individual level. Coverage and efficacy could improve through increased access for target populations, raised awareness and lower cost. More bioavailable iron forms, helping to decrease iron dose, or prebiotics, which both may lower risk of infections are attractive opportunities for Africa. Fortifying specific food products could be a relevant route, adapted to local context and needs of population groups while providing education and training. More globally, partnerships involving various stakeholders are encouraged, that could tackle all aspects of the issue

Higgs Physics: Theory

I review the theoretical aspects of the physics of Higgs bosons, focusing on the elements that are relevant for the production and detection at present hadron colliders. After briefly summarizing the basics of electroweak symmetry breaking in the Standard Model, I discuss Higgs production at the LHC and at the Tevatron, with some focus on the main production mechanism, the gluon-gluon fusion process, and summarize the main Higgs decay modes and the experimental detection channels. I then briefly survey the case of the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model. In a last section, I review the prospects for determining the fundamental properties of the Higgs particles once they have been experimentally observed.Comment: 21 pages, 15 figures. Talk given at the XXV International Symposium on Lepton Photon Interactions at High Energies (Lepton Photon 11), 22-27 August 2011, Mumbai, Indi

Direct detection of Higgs-portal dark matter at the LHC

We consider the process in which a Higgs particle is produced in association with jets and show that monojet searches at the LHC already provide interesting constraints on the invisible decays of a 125 GeV Higgs boson. Using the existing monojet searches performed by CMS and ATLAS, we show the 95% confidence level limit on the invisible Higgs decay rate is of the order of the total Higgs production rate in the Standard Model. This limit could be significantly improved when more data at higher center of mass energies are collected, provided systematic errors on the Standard Model contribution to the monojet background can be reduced. We also compare these direct constraints on the invisible rate with indirect ones based on measuring the Higgs rates in visible channels. In the context of Higgs portal models of dark matter, we then discuss how the LHC limits on the invisible Higgs branching fraction impose strong constraints on the dark matter scattering cross section on nucleons probed in direct detection experiments.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures; v2: references added; v3: monojet and Higgs data updated, version published in EPJ

Charged Higgs production from SUSY particle cascade decays at the LHC

We analyze the cascade decays of the scalar quarks and gluinos of the Minimal Supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model, which are abundantly produced at the Large Hadron Collider, into heavier charginos and neutralinos which then decay into the lighter ones and charged Higgs particles, and show that they can have substantial branching fractions. The production rates of these Higgs bosons can be much larger than those from the direct production mechanisms, in particular for intermediate values of the parameter $\tan \beta$, and could therefore allow for the detection of these particles. We also discuss charged Higgs boson production from direct two-body top and bottom squark decays as well as from two- and three-body gluino decays.Comment: 30 pages with 10 figures, latex. Uses axodraw.sty and epsfig.st

Mediterranean Founder Mutation Database (MFMD): Taking Advantage from Founder Mutations in Genetics Diagnosis, Genetic Diversity and Migration History of the Mediterranean Population

The Mediterranean basin has been the theater of migration crossroads followed by settlement of several societies and cultures in prehistoric and historical times, with important consequences on genetic and genomic determinisms. Here, we present the Mediterranean Founder Mutation Database (MFMD), established to offer web-based access to founder mutation information in the Mediterranean population. Mutation data were collected from the literature and other online resources and systematically reviewed and assembled into this database. The information provided for each founder mutation includes DNA change, amino-acid change, mutation type and mutation effect, as well as mutation frequency and coalescence time when available. Currently, the database contains 383 founder mutations found in 210 genes related to 219 diseases. We believe that MFMD will help scientists and physicians to design more rapid and less expensive genetic diagnostic tests. Moreover, the coalescence time of founder mutations gives an overview about the migration history of the Mediterranean population. MFMD can be publicly accessed from http://mfmd.pasteur.ma

Predictions for Higgs production at the Tevatron and the associated uncertainties

We update the theoretical predictions for the production cross sections of the Standard Model Higgs boson at the Fermilab Tevatron collider, focusing on the two main search channels, the gluon-gluon fusion mechanism $gg \to H$ and the Higgs-strahlung processes $q \bar q \to VH$ with $V=W/Z$, including all relevant higher order QCD and electroweak corrections in perturbation theory. We then estimate the various uncertainties affecting these predictions: the scale uncertainties which are viewed as a measure of the unknown higher order effects, the uncertainties from the parton distribution functions and the related errors on the strong coupling constant, as well as the uncertainties due to the use of an effective theory approach in the determination of the radiative corrections in the $gg \to H$ process at next-to-next-to-leading order. We find that while the cross sections are well under control in the Higgs--strahlung processes, the theoretical uncertainties are rather large in the case of the gluon-gluon fusion channel, possibly shifting the central values of the next-to-next-to-leading order cross sections by more than $\approx 40$. These uncertainties are thus significantly larger than the $\approx 10$ error assumed by the CDF and D0 experiments in their recent analysis that has excluded the Higgs mass range $M_H=$162-166 GeV at the 95% confidence level. These exclusion limits should be, therefore, reconsidered in the light of these large theoretical uncertainties.Comment: 40 pages, 12 figures. A few typos are corrected and some updated numbers are provide

Higgs Physics at Future Colliders: recent theoretical developments

I review the physics of the Higgs sector in the Standard Model and its minimal supersymmetric extension, the MSSM. I will discuss the prospects for discovering the Higgs particles at the upgraded Tevatron, at the Large Hadron Collider, and at a future high--energy $e^+e^-$ linear collider with centre--of--mass energy in the 350--800 GeV range, as well as the possibilities for studying their fundamental properties. Some emphasis will be put on the theoretical developments which occurred in the last two years.Comment: 20 pages, latex, 12 figures. Talk given at PASCOS 2003 (Bombay, India