A 24-h forecast of ozone peaks and exceedance levels using neural classifiers and weather predictions

A neural network combined to a neural classifier is used in a real time forecasting of hourly maximum ozone in the centre of France, in an urban atmosphere. This neural model is based on the MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) structure. The inputs of the statistical network are model output statistics of the weather predictions from the French National Weather Service. With this neural classifier, the Success Index of forecasting is 78% whereas it is from 65% to 72% with the classical MLPs. During the validation phase, in the Summer of 2003, six ozone peaks above the threshold were detected. They actually were seven

Variation in local and systemic pro-inflammatory immune markers of wild wood mice after anthelminthic treatment

The immune system represents a host’s main defence against infection to parasites and pathogens. In the wild, a host’s response to immune challenge can vary due to physiological condition, demography (age, sex), and coinfection by other parasites or pathogens. These sources of variation, which are intrinsic to natural populations, can significantly impact the strength and type of immune responses elicited after parasite exposure and infection. Importantly, but often neglected, a host’s immune response can also vary within the individual, across tissues and between local and systemic scales. Consequently, how a host responds at each scale may impact its susceptibility to concurrent and subsequent infections. Here we analysed how characteristics of hosts and their parasite infections drive variation in the pro-inflammatory immune response in wild wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) at both the local and systemic scale by experimentally manipulating within-host parasite communities through anthelminthic drug treatment. We measured concentrations of the pro-inflammatory cytokine TNF-α produced in vitro in response to a panel of TLR agonists at the local (mesenteric lymph nodes, MLN) and systemic (spleen) scales of individuals naturally infected with two gastrointestinal parasites, the nematode Heligmosomoides polygyrus and the protozoan Eimeria hungaryensis. Anthelminthic-treated mice had a 20-fold lower worm burden compared to control mice, as well as a 7-fold higher intensity of the non-drug targeted parasite E. hungaryensis. Anthelminthic treatment differentially impacted levels of TNF-α expression in males and females at the systemic and local scales, with treated males producing higher, and treated females lower, levels of TNF-α, compared to control mice. Also, TNF-α was affected by host age, at the local scale, with MLN cells of young, treated mice producing higher levels of TNF-α than those of old, treated hosts. Using complementary, but distinct, measures of inflammation measured across within-host scales allowed us to better assess the wood mouse immune response to changes in parasite infection dynamics after anthelminthic treatment. This same approach could be used to understand helminth infections and responses to parasite control measures in other systems in order to gain a broader view of how variation impacts the immune response

Closely-related Borrelia burgdorferi (sensu stricto) strains exhibit similar fitness in single infections and asymmetric competition in multiple infections

Wild hosts are commonly co-infected with complex, genetically diverse, pathogen communities. Competition is expected between genetically or ecologically similar pathogen strains which may influence patterns of coexistence. However, there is little data on how specific strains of these diverse pathogen species interact within the host and how this impacts pathogen persistence in nature. Ticks are the most common disease vector in temperate regions with Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease, being the most common vector-borne pathogen in North America. Borrelia burgdorferi is a pathogen of high public health concern and there is significant variation in infection phenotype between strains, which influences predictions of pathogen dynamics and spread.In a laboratory experiment, we investigated whether two closely-related strains of B. burgdorferi (sensu stricto) showed similar transmission phenotypes, how the transmission of these strains changed when a host was infected with one strain, re-infected with the same strain, or co-infected with two strains. Ixodes scapularis, the black-legged tick, nymphs were used to sequentially infect laboratory-bred Peromyscus leucopus, white-footed mice, with one strain only, homologous infection with the same stain, or heterologous infection with both strains. We used the results of this laboratory experiment to simulate long-term persistence and maintenance of each strain in a simple simulation model.Strain LG734 was more competitive than BL206, showing no difference in transmission between the heterologous infection groups and single-infection controls, while strain BL206 transmission was significantly reduced when strain LG734 infected first. The results of the model show that this asymmetry in competition could lead to extinction of strain BL206 unless there was a tick-to-host transmission advantage to this less competitive strain.This asymmetric competitive interaction suggests that strain identity and the biotic context of co-infection is important to predict strain dynamics and persistence

Association of Rare Coding Mutations With Alzheimer Disease and Other Dementias Among Adults of European Ancestry

IMPORTANCE Some of the unexplained heritability of Alzheimer disease (AD) may be due to rare variants whose effects are not captured in genome-wide association studies because very large samples are needed to observe statistically significant associations. OBJECTIVE To identify genetic variants associated with AD risk using a nonstatistical approach. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Genetic association study in which rare variants were identified by whole-exome sequencing in unrelated individuals of European ancestry from the Alzheimer’s Disease Sequencing Project (ADSP). Data were analyzed between March 2017 and September 2018. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Minor alleles genome-wide and in 95 genes previously associated with AD, AD-related traits, or other dementias were tabulated and filtered for predicted functional impact and occurrence in participants with AD but not controls. Support for several findings was sought in a whole-exome sequencing data set comprising 19 affected relative pairs from Utah high-risk pedigrees and whole-genome sequencing data sets from the ADSP and Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. RESULTS Among 5617 participants with AD (3202 [57.0%] women; mean [SD] age, 76.4 [9.3] years) and 4594 controls (2719 [59.0%] women; mean [SD] age, 86.5 [4.5] years), a total of 24 variants with moderate or high functional impact from 19 genes were observed in 10 or more participants with AD but not in controls. These variants included a missense mutation (rs149307620 [p.A284T], n = 10) in NOTCH3, a gene in which coding mutations are associated with cerebral autosomal-dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL), that was also identified in 1 participant with AD and 1 participant with mild cognitive impairment in the whole genome sequencing data sets. Four participants with AD carried the TREM2 rs104894002 (p.Q33X) high-impact mutation that, in homozygous form, causes Nasu-Hakola disease, a rare disorder characterized by early-onset dementia and multifocal bone cysts, suggesting an intermediate inheritance model for the mutation. Compared with controls, participants with AD had a significantly higher burden of deleterious rare coding variants in dementia-associated genes (2314 vs 3354 cumulative variants, respectively; P = .006). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Different mutations in the same gene or variable dose of a mutation may be associated with result in distinct dementias. These findings suggest that minor differences in the structure or amount of protein may be associated with in different clinical outcomes. Understanding these genotype-phenotype associations may provide further insight into the pathogenic nature of the mutations, as well as offer clues for developing new therapeutic targets

Varespladib and cardiovascular events in patients with an acute coronary syndrome: the VISTA-16 randomized clinical trial

IMPORTANCE: Secretory phospholipase A2(sPLA2) generates bioactive phospholipid products implicated in atherosclerosis. The sPLA2inhibitor varespladib has favorable effects on lipid and inflammatory markers; however, its effect on cardiovascular outcomes is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effects of sPLA2inhibition with varespladib on cardiovascular outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A double-blind, randomized, multicenter trial at 362 academic and community hospitals in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, India, and North America of 5145 patients randomized within 96 hours of presentation of an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) to either varespladib (n = 2572) or placebo (n = 2573) with enrollment between June 1, 2010, and March 7, 2012 (study termination on March 9, 2012). INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomized to receive varespladib (500 mg) or placebo daily for 16 weeks, in addition to atorvastatin and other established therapies. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary efficacy measurewas a composite of cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), nonfatal stroke, or unstable angina with evidence of ischemia requiring hospitalization at 16 weeks. Six-month survival status was also evaluated. RESULTS: At a prespecified interim analysis, including 212 primary end point events, the independent data and safety monitoring board recommended termination of the trial for futility and possible harm. The primary end point occurred in 136 patients (6.1%) treated with varespladib compared with 109 patients (5.1%) treated with placebo (hazard ratio [HR], 1.25; 95%CI, 0.97-1.61; log-rank P = .08). Varespladib was associated with a greater risk of MI (78 [3.4%] vs 47 [2.2%]; HR, 1.66; 95%CI, 1.16-2.39; log-rank P = .005). The composite secondary end point of cardiovascular mortality, MI, and stroke was observed in 107 patients (4.6%) in the varespladib group and 79 patients (3.8%) in the placebo group (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.02-1.82; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In patients with recent ACS, varespladib did not reduce the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events and significantly increased the risk of MI. The sPLA2inhibition with varespladib may be harmful and is not a useful strategy to reduce adverse cardiovascular outcomes after ACS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01130246. Copyright 2014 American Medical Association. All rights reserved

Bayesian Space-Time Patterns and Climatic Determinants of Bovine Anaplasmosis

Citation: Hanzlicek, G. A., Raghavan, R. K., Ganta, R. R., & Anderson, G. A. (2016). Bayesian Space-Time Patterns and Climatic Determinants of Bovine Anaplasmosis. Plos One, 11(3), 13. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0151924The space-time pattern and environmental drivers (land cover, climate) of bovine anaplasmosis in the Midwestern state of Kansas was retrospectively evaluated using Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal models and publicly available, remotely-sensed environmental covariate information. Cases of bovine anaplasmosis positively diagnosed at Kansas State Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory (n = 478) between years 2005-2013 were used to construct the models, which included random effects for space, time and space-time interaction effects with defined priors, and fixed-effect covariates selected a priori using an univariate screening procedure. The Bayesian posterior median and 95% credible intervals for the space-time interaction term in the best-fitting covariate model indicated a steady progression of bovine anaplasmosis over time and geographic area in the state. Posterior median estimates and 95% credible intervals derived for covariates in the final covariate model indicated land surface temperature (minimum), relative humidity and diurnal temperature range to be important risk factors for bovine anaplasmosis in the study. The model performance measured using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value indicated a good performance for the covariate model (>0.7). The relevance of climatological factors for bovine anaplasmosis is discussed

A novel clinical score (InterTAK Diagnostic Score) to differentiate takotsubo syndrome from acute coronary syndrome: results from the International Takotsubo Registry

AIMS. Clinical presentation of takotsubo syndrome (TTS) mimics acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and does not allow differentiation. We aimed to develop a clinical score to estimate the probability of TTS and to distinguish TTS from ACS in the acute stage. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with TTS were recruited from the International Takotsubo Registry ( www.takotsubo-registry.com) and ACS patients from the leading hospital in Zurich. A multiple logistic regression for the presence of TTS was performed in a derivation cohort (TTS, n = 218; ACS, n = 436). The best model was selected and formed a score (InterTAK Diagnostic Score) with seven variables, and each was assigned a score value: female sex 25, emotional trigger 24, physical trigger 13, absence of ST-segment depression (except in lead aVR) 12, psychiatric disorders 11, neurologic disorders 9, and QTc prolongation 6 points. The area under the curve (AUC) for the resulting score was 0.971 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96-0.98] and using a cut-off value of 40 score points, sensitivity was 89% and specificity 91%. When patients with a score of ≥50 were diagnosed as TTS, nearly 95% of TTS patients were correctly diagnosed. When patients with a score ≤31 were diagnosed as ACS, ∼95% of ACS patients were diagnosed correctly. The score was subsequently validated in an independent validation cohort (TTS, n = 173; ACS, n = 226), resulting in a score AUC of 0.901 (95% CI 0.87-0.93). CONCLUSION: The InterTAK Diagnostic Score estimates the probability of the presence of TTS and is able to distinguish TTS from ACS with a high sensitivity and specificity