Analysis of Greater Sage-grouse Lek Data: Trends in Peak Male Counts 1965-2015

Trends in greater sage-grouse breeding populations are typically indexed by determining the peak number of males attending a lek in a lekking season. Numerous studies have estimated negative trends in sage-grouse breeding populations over time via data collected for the last 50 years. However, the inherent bias in data collection and unknown relationship between lek counts and population size limits the utility of using counts to evaluate range-wide population trends. This study estimated trends in the male segment of greater sage-grouse breeding populations within core and periphery areas in seven habitat management zones during two time periods, 1965-2015 and 2005-2015. In addition, we compared analysis methods used in this study to previous studies, and provided recommendations on future data collection. We developed a hierarchical model that followed individual leks through time and allowed trends at individual leks to inform estimates of regional trends. We fit overdispersed Poisson models using a Bayesian hierarchical framework and Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The average range-wide decline, weighted across management zones, was 2.10% per year, for an average total decline of 66% from 1965-2015. Estimates of trend over 2005-2015 for individual management zones, in both core and periphery areas, indicated that recent annual declines were more severe compared to the average declines over the entire analysis period 1965-2015. The declines estimated in this study were similar to other studies; however, review of the literature reveals numerous issues surrounding the historical data, the on-going monitoring and sampling scheme, and utilization of various statistical methods, all of which limit our inference on population trends. We believe the overdispersed Poisson regression model is the most appropriate analysis method for these and future data, regardless of whether the focus remains on peak male counts or total counts of observed sage-grouse based on a more spatially balanced sample of monitoring sites that are randomly selected

SMS texts on corruption help Ugandan voters hold elected councillors accountable at the polls

Many politicians manipulate information to prevent voters from holding them accountable; however, mobile text messages may make it easier for nongovernmental organizations to credibly share information on official corruption that is difficult for politicians to counter directly. We test the potential for texts on budget management to improve democratic accountability by conducting a large (n = 16,083) randomized controlled trial during the 2016 Ugandan district elections. In cooperation with a local partner, we compiled, simplified, and text-messaged official information on irregularities in local government budgets. Verified recipients of messages that described more irregularities than expected reported voting for incumbent councillors 6% less often; verified recipients of messages conveying fewer irregularities than expected reported voting for incumbent councillors 5% more often. The messages had no observable effect on votes for incumbent council chairs, potentially due to voters\u27 greater reliance on other sources of information for higher profile elections. These mixed results suggest that text messages on budget corruption help voters hold some politicians accountable in settings where elections are not free and fair

ESTIMATING MOOSE ABUNDANCE IN LINEAR SUBARCTIC HABITATS IN LOW SNOW CONDITIONS WITH DISTANCE SAMPLING AND A KERNEL ESTIMATOR

Moose (Alces alces) are colonizing previously unoccupied habitat along the tributaries of the lower Kuskokwim River within the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge (YDNWR) of western Alaska. We delineated a new survey area to encompass these narrow (0.7–4.3 km) riparian corridors that are bounded by open tundra and routinely experience winter conditions that limit snow cover and depth necessary for traditional moose surveys. We tested a line-transect distance sampling approach as an alternative to estimate moose abundance in this region. Additionally, we compared standard semi-parametric detection functions available in the program Distance to a nonparametric kernel-based estimator not previously used for moose distance data. A double-observer technique was used to verify that the probability of detection at the minimum sighting distance was 1.0 (standard assumption). Average moose group size was 2.03 and not correlated with distance from the transect line. The top semi-parametric model in the program Distance was a hazard-rate key function with no expansion terms. This model estimated average probability of detection as 0.70 with an estimated abundance of 352 moose (95% CI = 237–540). The CV for the semi-parametric model was 20% and had an estimated bias of 1.4%. The nonparametric kernel-based model had an average probability of detection of 0.73 and an estimated abundance of 340 (95% CI = 238–472) moose. The CV for the kernel method was 18% and the estimated bias was <0.001%. Line-transect distance sampling with a helicopter worked well in the narrow riparian corridors with low snow conditions, and survey costs were similar to traditional surveys with fixed-wing aircraft. The kernel estimator also performed well compared to the standard semi-parametric models used in program Distance. Our technique provides a viable approach for surveying moose in similar areas that have restrictive conditions for standard aerial surveys

Information about service provision in Uganda is insufficient to affect voting behaviour

The quality of service provision in Uganda varies greatly across regions and between villages, and yet evidence suggests citizens’ are unable to assess these differences. A research experiment used SMS messages about public services to help Ugandans make informed voting decisions, but it found no effect on voting outcomes. Here is why information alone is sometimes insufficient to affect political behaviour

Individualized text messages about public services fail to sway voters: evidence from a field experiment on Ugandan elections

Mobile communication technologies can provide citizens access to information that is tailored to their specific circumstances. Such technologies may therefore increase citizens' ability to vote in line with their interests and hold politicians accountable. In a large-scale randomized controlled trial in Uganda (n = 16,083), we investigated whether citizens who receive private, timely, and individualized text messages by mobile phone about public services in their community punished or rewarded incumbents in local elections in line with the information. Respondents claimed to find the messages valuable and there is evidence that they briefly updated their beliefs based on the messages; however, the treatment did not cause increased votes for incumbents where public services were better than expected nor decreased votes where public services were worse than anticipated. The considerable knowledge gaps among citizens identified in this study indicate potential for communication technologies to effectively share civic information. Yet the findings imply that when the attribution of public service outcomes is difficult, even individualized information is unlikely to affect voting behavior

Dynamic Responses of Calving Caribou to Oilfields in Northern Alaska

Past research has suggested that during the calving period, caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in Arctic Alaska generally avoid areas within 1 km of oilfield roads with traffic. However, avoidance is not absolute, and caribou may habituate to infrastructure (e.g., buildings, roads, well pads) and human activity. We conducted road-based surveys of caribou in oilfields on Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain during the late calving and post-calving periods of June in 2000–02. We recorded location, composition, and behavior of caribou groups located less than 1 km from active gravel roads and production pads. Caribou groups with calves were on average distributed farther from oilfield infrastructure than were groups without calves, but habituation to oilfield activities, indicated by decreased avoidance, occurred at similar rates for groups with and without calves. During the calving period, sighting rates were greater in areas of low human activity, and calf percentages tended to be greater at night when oilfield activity was reduced. Caribou groups were on average closer to infrastructure during the post-calving periods than during the calving periods in 2000 and 2001, but not in 2002. In 2002, when snow melted early, caribou groups were closer to infrastructure during the calving period than in 2000 and 2001, when snow melted later, emphasizing the importance of examining environmental variables when investigating the dynamic interactions of caribou and oilfields. Overall, caribou appeared to habituate to active oilfield infrastructure after the calving period in 2000, late in the calving period in 2001, and likely before our sampling period in 2002. The timing of annual rehabituation was positively correlated with timing of spring snowmelt. Land and wildlife managers can use information from this study to develop calving period-specific mitigation measures that are more effective and flexible.Selon des recherches antérieures, pendant sa période de vêlage, le caribou (Rangifer tarandus) de l’Alaska arctique évite généralement les régions se trouvant à l’intérieur d’un kilomètre des routes où circulent des véhicules menant aux chantiers pétroliers. Cependant, cet évitement n’est pas absolu, et le caribou peut s’accoutumer aux infrastructures (comme les bâtiments, les routes et les chantiers) et à l’activité humaine. Nous avons effectué le dénombrement des caribous près des routes des champs de pétrole de la plaine côtière arctique de l’Alaska vers la fin de la période de vêlage et après la période de vêlage de juin 2000 à 2002. Nous avons consigné l’emplacement, la composition et le comportement des groupes de caribous se trouvant à moins d’un kilomètre des routes de gravier et des chantiers de production en activité. En moyenne, les caribous qui avaient des petits se tenaient plus loin des infrastructures pétrolières que les groupes de caribous qui n’avaient pas de petits. Cela dit, l’accoutumance aux activités pétrolières, dénotée par un moins grand évitement, survenait à des taux semblables pour les groupes qui avaient des petits et les groupes qui n’en avaient pas. Pendant la période de vêlage, les taux d’observation de caribous étaient plus élevés dans les régions où il y avait peu d’activité humaine, et les pourcentages de petits avaient tendance à être plus élevés la nuit, lorsqu’il y avait peu de va-et-vient aux chantiers. En moyenne, les groupes de caribous s’approchaient plus des infrastructures pendant les périodes suivant le vêlage des années 2000 et 2001, mais pas en 2002. En 2002, quand la neige a fondu plus tôt que d’habitude, les groupes de caribous s’approchaient plus des infrastructures pendant la période de vêlage qu’en 2000 et 2001, lorsque la neige a fondu plus tard. Cela fait ressortir l’importance de tenir compte des variables environnementales lorsque nous faisons des enquêtes sur les interactions dynamiques entre les caribous et les champs de pétrole. Dans l’ensemble, les caribous semblaient s’accoutumer aux infrastructures pétrolières en activité après la période de vêlage en 2000, puis vers la fin de la période de vêlage en 2001, et vraisemblablement avant notre période d’échantillonnage en 2002. Le moment de l’accoutumance annuelle coïncidait positivement avec le moment de la fonte des neiges au printemps. Les gestionnaires des terres et de la faune peuvent se servir de l’information émanant de cette étude pour élaborer des mesures d’atténuation tenant compte de la période de vêlage, mesures qui sont plus efficaces et qui présentent plus de souplesse

Binary Cosmic Strings

The properties of cosmic strings have been investigated in detail for their implications in early-universe cosmology. Although many variations of the basic structure have been discovered, with implications for both the microscopic and macroscopic properties of cosmic strings, the cylindrical symmetry of the short-distance structure of the string is generally unaffected. In this paper we describe some mechanisms leading to an asymmetric structure of the string core, giving the defects a quasi-two-dimensional character. We also begin to investigate the consequences of this internal structure for the microscopic and macroscopic physics.Comment: 19 pages; uses harvmac (not included

Perfect weddings abroad

Approximately 16% of UK couples are currently married abroad. However, academic or practitioner focused research that explores the complex nature of a couple’s buying preferences or the development of innovative marketing strategies by businesses operating within the weddings abroad niche sector, is almost non-existent. This exploratory paper examines the role and relevance of marketing within the weddings abroad sector. The complex nature of customer needs in this high emotional and involvement experience, are identified and explored. A case study of Perfect Weddings Abroad Ltd highlights distinctive features and characteristics. Social networking and the use of home-workers, with a focus on reassurance and handholding are important tools used to develop relationships with customers. These tools and techniques help increase the tangibility of a weddings abroad package. Clusters of complementary services that are synergistic and provide sources of competitive advantage are identified and an agenda for future research is developed

SLIM Ultrahigh Resolution Ion Mobility Spectrometry Separations of Isotopologues and Isotopomers Reveal Mobility Shifts due to Mass Distribution Changes

We report on separations of ion isotopologues and isotopomers using ultrahigh-resolution traveling wave-based Structures for Lossless Ion Manipulations with serpentine ultralong path and extended routing ion mobility spectrometry coupled to mass spectrometry (SLIM SUPER IMS-MS). Mobility separations of ions from the naturally occurring ion isotopic envelopes (e.g., [M], [M+1], [M+2], ... ions) showed the first and second isotopic peaks (i.e., [M+1] and [M+2]) for various tetraalkylammonium ions could be resolved from their respective monoisotopic ion peak ([M]) after SLIM SUPER IMS with resolving powers of ∼400–600. Similar separations were obtained for other compounds (e.g., tetrapeptide ions). Greater separation was obtained using argon versus helium drift gas, as expected from the greater reduced mass contribution to ion mobility described by the Mason–Schamp relationship. To more directly explore the role of isotopic substitutions, we studied a mixture of specific isotopically substituted (15N, 13C, and 2H) protonated arginine isotopologues. While the separations in nitrogen were primarily due to their reduced mass differences, similar to the naturally occurring isotopologues, their separations in helium, where higher resolving powers could also be achieved, revealed distinct additional relative mobility shifts. These shifts appeared correlated, after correction for the reduced mass contribution, with changes in the ion center of mass due to the different locations of heavy atom substitutions. The origin of these apparent mass distribution-induced mobility shifts was then further explored using a mixture of Iodoacetyl Tandem Mass Tag (iodoTMT) isotopomers (i.e., each having the same exact mass, but with different isotopic substitution sites). Again, the observed mobility shifts appeared correlated with changes in the ion center of mass leading to multiple monoisotopic mobilities being observed for some isotopomers (up to a ∼0.04% difference in mobility). These mobility shifts thus appear to reflect details of the ion structure, derived from the changes due to ion rotation impacting collision frequency or momentum transfer, and highlight the potential for new approaches for ion structural characterization