The price of piracy in Somalia

Somalia is a country ravaged by political instability, internal strife and abject poverty – an ideal breeding ground for piracy. But the short term gains that have filtered through the economy from ransom payments have done little to address the country’s long term economic health, argues LSE’s Ryan Jablonski

Captain Phillips and the causes of piracy

LSE’s Ryan Jablonski and Steven Oliver of the University of California, San Diego explore the reasons for piracy on the Somali economy

What politicians don’t know can hurt you: the effects of information on politicians’ spending decisions

Do well-informed politicians make more effective spending decisions? In experiments with 70% of all elected politicians in Malawi (N=460), we tested the effects of information on public spending. Specifically, we randomly provided information about school needs, foreign aid, and voting patterns prior to officials making real decisions about the allocation of spending. We show that these information interventions reduced inequalities in spending: treatment group politicians were more likely to spend in schools neglected by donors and in schools with greater need. Some information treatment effects were strongest in remote and less populated communities. These results suggest information gaps partially explain inequalities in spending allocation and imply social welfare benefits from improving politicians’ access to information about community needs

Did aid promote democracy in Africa?: the role of technical assistance in Africa’s transitions

Did foreign aid impede or catalyze democratization in Africa in the 1990s? We argue that after the Cold War, donors increased their use of technical assistance in aid packages, improving their monitoring capacity and thus reducing autocrats’ ability to use aid for patronage. To remain in power, autocrats responded by conceding political rights to their opponents—from legalizing opposition parties to staging elections. We test our theory with panel data for all sub-Saharan African countries. While other factors played pivotal roles in Africa’s political liberalization, we find technical assistance helps to explain the timing and extent of Africa’s democratization

SMS texts on corruption help Ugandan voters hold elected councillors accountable at the polls

Many politicians manipulate information to prevent voters from holding them accountable; however, mobile text messages may make it easier for nongovernmental organizations to credibly share information on official corruption that is difficult for politicians to counter directly. We test the potential for texts on budget management to improve democratic accountability by conducting a large (n = 16,083) randomized controlled trial during the 2016 Ugandan district elections. In cooperation with a local partner, we compiled, simplified, and text-messaged official information on irregularities in local government budgets. Verified recipients of messages that described more irregularities than expected reported voting for incumbent councillors 6% less often; verified recipients of messages conveying fewer irregularities than expected reported voting for incumbent councillors 5% more often. The messages had no observable effect on votes for incumbent council chairs, potentially due to voters\u27 greater reliance on other sources of information for higher profile elections. These mixed results suggest that text messages on budget corruption help voters hold some politicians accountable in settings where elections are not free and fair

Information about service provision in Uganda is insufficient to affect voting behaviour

The quality of service provision in Uganda varies greatly across regions and between villages, and yet evidence suggests citizens’ are unable to assess these differences. A research experiment used SMS messages about public services to help Ugandans make informed voting decisions, but it found no effect on voting outcomes. Here is why information alone is sometimes insufficient to affect political behaviour

Individualized text messages about public services fail to sway voters: evidence from a field experiment on Ugandan elections

Mobile communication technologies can provide citizens access to information that is tailored to their specific circumstances. Such technologies may therefore increase citizens' ability to vote in line with their interests and hold politicians accountable. In a large-scale randomized controlled trial in Uganda (n = 16,083), we investigated whether citizens who receive private, timely, and individualized text messages by mobile phone about public services in their community punished or rewarded incumbents in local elections in line with the information. Respondents claimed to find the messages valuable and there is evidence that they briefly updated their beliefs based on the messages; however, the treatment did not cause increased votes for incumbents where public services were better than expected nor decreased votes where public services were worse than anticipated. The considerable knowledge gaps among citizens identified in this study indicate potential for communication technologies to effectively share civic information. Yet the findings imply that when the attribution of public service outcomes is difficult, even individualized information is unlikely to affect voting behavior

The Tortuga disease: the perverse effects of illicit foreign capital

Transnational crime brings substantial foreign capital into a number of fragile and developing states. Yet the economic and political impacts of such capital have rarely been studied due to the challenges of obtaining accurate data on illicit activities. We overcome this challenge by compiling a dataset on the amount and disbursement dates of ransom payments made by ship owners and insurers to Somali pirates from 2005 to 2012, along with sub-national commodity prices and trade flows in Somalia. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we hypothesize and find that ransoms have effects similar to those associated with the Dutch Disease. These effects include appreciating the local currency, decreasing export competitiveness, and increasing import dependence. The results illuminate a new channel through which illicit capital can undermine long-term economic development and foster an economic and political dependency on illicit sectors

Human-like hip joint loading in Australopithecus africanus and Paranthropus robustus.

Adaptations indicative of habitual bipedalism are present in the earliest recognized hominins. However, debate persists about various aspects of bipedal locomotor behavior in fossil hominins, including the nature of gait kinematics, locomotor variability across different species, and the degree to which various australopith species engaged in arboreal behaviors. In this study, we analyze variation in trabecular bone structure of the femoral head using a sample of modern humans, extant non-human hominoids, baboons, and fossil hominins attributed to Australopithecus africanus, Paranthropus robustus, and the genus Homo. We use μCT data to characterize the fabric anisotropy, material orientation, and bone volume fraction of trabecular bone to reconstruct hip joint loading conditions in these fossil hominins. Femoral head trabecular bone fabric structure in australopiths is more similar to that of modern humans and Pleistocene Homo than extant apes, indicating that these australopith individuals walked with human-like hip kinematics, including a more limited range of habitual hip joint postures (e.g., a more extended hip) during bipedalism. Our results also indicate that australopiths have robust femoral head trabecular bone, suggesting overall increased loading of the musculoskeletal system comparable to that imposed by extant apes. These results provide new evidence of human-like bipedal locomotion in Pliocene hominins, even while other aspects of their musculoskeletal systems retain ape-like characteristics