Social uncertainty is heterogeneous and sometimes valuable

To win friends, help the needy, avoid exploitation or influence strangers, people must make decisions that are inherently uncertain. In their compelling and insightful perspective on resolving social uncertainty1, FeldmanHall and Shenhav (henceforth F&S) join a growing movement combining computational approaches with social psychological theory. F&S identify a range of negative and positive aspects of social uncertainty. Here we offer additional ways to think about social uncertainty and suggest potential avenues for future research

The influence of contextual reward statistics on risk preference

Decision theories mandate that organisms should adjust their behaviour in the light of the contextual reward statistics. We tested this notion using a gambling choice task involving distinct contexts with different reward distributions. The best fitting model of subjects' behaviour indicated that the subjective values of options depended on several factors, including a baseline gambling propensity, a gambling preference dependent on reward amount, and a contextual reward adaptation factor. Combining this behavioural model with simultaneous functional magnetic resonance imaging we probed neural responses in three key regions linked to reward and value, namely ventral tegmental area/substantia nigra (VTA/SN), ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and ventral striatum (VST). We show that activity in the VTA/SN reflected contextual reward statistics to the extent that context affected behaviour, activity in the vmPFC represented a value difference between chosen and unchosen options while VST responses reflected a non-linear mapping between the actual objective rewards and their subjective value. The findings highlight a multifaceted basis for choice behaviour with distinct mappings between components of this behaviour and value sensitive brain regions

Risk taking for potential losses but not gains increases with time of day

Humans exhibit distinct risk preferences when facing choices involving potential gains and losses. These preferences are believed to be subject to neuromodulatory influence, particularly from dopamine and serotonin. As neuromodulators manifest circadian rhythms, this suggests decision making under risk might be affected by time of day. Here, in a large subject sample collected using a smartphone application, we found that risky options with potential losses were increasingly chosen over the course of the day. We observed this result in both a within-subjects design (N = 2599) comparing risky options chosen earlier and later in the day in the same individuals, and in a between-subjects design (N = 26,720) showing our effect generalizes across ages and genders. Using computational modelling, we show this diurnal change in risk preference reflects a decrease in sensitivity to increasing losses, but no change was observed in the relative impacts of gains and losses on choice (i.e., loss aversion). Thus, our findings reveal a striking diurnal modulation in human decision making, a pattern with potential importance for real-life decisions that include voting, medical decisions, and financial investments

Threshold criterion for wetting at the triple point

Grand canonical simulations are used to calculate adsorption isotherms of various classical gases on alkali metal and Mg surfaces. Ab initio adsorption potentials and Lennard-Jones gas-gas interactions are used. Depending on the system, the resulting behavior can be nonwetting for all temperatures studied, complete wetting, or (in the intermediate case) exhibit a wetting transition. An unusual variety of wetting transitions at the triple point is found in the case of a specific adsorption potential of intermediate strength. The general threshold for wetting near the triple point is found to be close to that predicted with a heuristic model of Cheng et al. This same conclusion was drawn in a recent experimental and simulation study of Ar on CO_2 by Mistura et al. These results imply that a dimensionless wetting parameter w is useful for predicting whether wetting behavior is present at and above the triple temperature. The nonwetting/wetting crossover value found here is w circa 3.3.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figure

To wet or not to wet: that is the question

Wetting transitions have been predicted and observed to occur for various combinations of fluids and surfaces. This paper describes the origin of such transitions, for liquid films on solid surfaces, in terms of the gas-surface interaction potentials V(r), which depend on the specific adsorption system. The transitions of light inert gases and H2 molecules on alkali metal surfaces have been explored extensively and are relatively well understood in terms of the least attractive adsorption interactions in nature. Much less thoroughly investigated are wetting transitions of Hg, water, heavy inert gases and other molecular films. The basic idea is that nonwetting occurs, for energetic reasons, if the adsorption potential's well-depth D is smaller than, or comparable to, the well-depth of the adsorbate-adsorbate mutual interaction. At the wetting temperature, Tw, the transition to wetting occurs, for entropic reasons, when the liquid's surface tension is sufficiently small that the free energy cost in forming a thick film is sufficiently compensated by the fluid- surface interaction energy. Guidelines useful for exploring wetting transitions of other systems are analyzed, in terms of generic criteria involving the "simple model", which yields results in terms of gas-surface interaction parameters and thermodynamic properties of the bulk adsorbate.Comment: Article accepted for publication in J. Low Temp. Phy

Horizontal Branch Stars: The Interplay between Observations and Theory, and Insights into the Formation of the Galaxy

We review HB stars in a broad astrophysical context, including both variable and non-variable stars. A reassessment of the Oosterhoff dichotomy is presented, which provides unprecedented detail regarding its origin and systematics. We show that the Oosterhoff dichotomy and the distribution of globular clusters (GCs) in the HB morphology-metallicity plane both exclude, with high statistical significance, the possibility that the Galactic halo may have formed from the accretion of dwarf galaxies resembling present-day Milky Way satellites such as Fornax, Sagittarius, and the LMC. A rediscussion of the second-parameter problem is presented. A technique is proposed to estimate the HB types of extragalactic GCs on the basis of integrated far-UV photometry. The relationship between the absolute V magnitude of the HB at the RR Lyrae level and metallicity, as obtained on the basis of trigonometric parallax measurements for the star RR Lyrae, is also revisited, giving a distance modulus to the LMC of (m-M)_0 = 18.44+/-0.11. RR Lyrae period change rates are studied. Finally, the conductive opacities used in evolutionary calculations of low-mass stars are investigated. [ABRIDGED]Comment: 56 pages, 22 figures. Invited review, to appear in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

EPIdemiology of Surgery-Associated Acute Kidney Injury (EPIS-AKI) : Study protocol for a multicentre, observational trial

More than 300 million surgical procedures are performed each year. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication after major surgery and is associated with adverse short-term and long-term outcomes. However, there is a large variation in the incidence of reported AKI rates. The establishment of an accurate epidemiology of surgery-associated AKI is important for healthcare policy, quality initiatives, clinical trials, as well as for improving guidelines. The objective of the Epidemiology of Surgery-associated Acute Kidney Injury (EPIS-AKI) trial is to prospectively evaluate the epidemiology of AKI after major surgery using the latest Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) consensus definition of AKI. EPIS-AKI is an international prospective, observational, multicentre cohort study including 10 000 patients undergoing major surgery who are subsequently admitted to the ICU or a similar high dependency unit. The primary endpoint is the incidence of AKI within 72 hours after surgery according to the KDIGO criteria. Secondary endpoints include use of renal replacement therapy (RRT), mortality during ICU and hospital stay, length of ICU and hospital stay and major adverse kidney events (combined endpoint consisting of persistent renal dysfunction, RRT and mortality) at day 90. Further, we will evaluate preoperative and intraoperative risk factors affecting the incidence of postoperative AKI. In an add-on analysis, we will assess urinary biomarkers for early detection of AKI. EPIS-AKI has been approved by the leading Ethics Committee of the Medical Council North Rhine-Westphalia, of the Westphalian Wilhelms-University Münster and the corresponding Ethics Committee at each participating site. Results will be disseminated widely and published in peer-reviewed journals, presented at conferences and used to design further AKI-related trials. Trial registration number NCT04165369