Estimating the effects of preventive and weight-management interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in England: a modelling study

BACKGROUND: The effects of the systematic delivery of treatments for obesity are unknown. We aimed to estimate the potential effects on the prevalence of childhood obesity of systematically offering preventive and treatment interventions to eligible children in England, based on weight or health status. METHODS: For this modelling study, we developed a cross-sectional simulation model of the child and young adult population in England using data from multiple years of the Health Survey of England conducted between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2019. Individuals were assessed for eligibility via age, BMI, and medical complications. Weight status was defined based on clinical criteria used by the UK National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. Published systematic reviews were used to estimate effect sizes for treatments, uptake, and completion for each weight-management tier. We used all available evidence, including evidence from studies that showed an unfavourable effect. We estimated the effects of two systematic approaches: a staged approach, in which children and young people were simultaneously given the most intensive treatment for which they were eligible, and a stepped approach, in which each management tier was applied sequentially, with additive effects. The primary outcomes were estimated prevalence of clinical obesity, defined as a BMI ≥98th centile on the UK90 growth chart, and difference in comparison with the estimated baseline prevalence. FINDINGS: 18 080 children and young people were included in the analytical sample. Baseline prevalence of clinical obesity was estimated to be 11·2% (95% CI 10·5 to 11·8) for children and young people aged 2-18 years. In modelling, we estimated absolute decreases in the prevalence of obesity of 0·9% (95% CI 0·1 to 1·8) for universal, preventive interventions; 0·2% (0·1 to 0·4) for interventions within a primary-care setting; 1·0% (0·1 to 2·1) for community and lifestyle interventions; 0·2% (0·0 to 0·4) for pharmaceutical interventions; and 0·4% (0·1 to 0·7) for surgical interventions. Staged care was estimated to result in an absolute decrease in the prevalence of obesity of 1·3% (-0·3 to 2·4) and stepped care was estimated to lead to an absolute decrease of 2·4% (0·1 to 4·8). INTERPRETATION: Although individual effect sizes for prevention and treatment interventions were small, when delivered at scale across England, these interventions have the potential to meaningfully contribute to reducing the prevalence of childhood obesity. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research

Basic vocabulary and Bayesian phylolinguistics

Donohue et al.’s critique of our work on the origins and spread of the Austronesian language family is marred by misunderstandings of our approach. We respond to these by noting that our Bayesian phylogenetic approach: (1) distinguishes between retentions and innovations probabilistically, (2) focuses on basic vocabulary not ‘the lexicon’, (3) eliminates known loanwords, (4) produces results that are congruent with the results of the comparative method and conflict with the scenarios requiring unprecedented amounts of language shift postulated by Donohue et al

Is it possible to model the impact of calorie-reduction interventions on childhood obesity at a population level and across the range of deprivation: Evidence from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)

BACKGROUND: Simulated interventions using observational data have the potential to inform policy and public health interventions where randomised controlled trials are not feasible. National childhood obesity policy is one such area. Overweight and obesity are primarily caused by energy-rich and low-nutrient diets that contribute to a positive net energy imbalance. Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), we investigated whether causal modelling techniques could be applied to simulate the potential impact of policy-relevant calorie-reduction interventions on population prevalence and inequalities in obesity in childhood. METHODS: Predicted probabilities of obesity at age 11 (UK90 cut offs) were estimated from logistic marginal structural models (MSM) accounting for observed calorie consumption at age 7 and confounding, overall and by maternal occupational social class. A series of population intervention scenarios were modelled to simulate daily calorie-reduction interventions that differed in effectiveness, targeting mechanism and programme uptake level. RESULTS: The estimated effect of maternal social class on obesity after accounting for confounding and observed calorie intake was provided by the controlled direct effect (CDE), in which, 18.3% of children were living with obesity at age 11 years,. A universal simulation to lower median intake to the estimated average requirement (EAR) (a 6.1% reduction in daily calories) with 75% uptake reduced overall obesity prevalence by 0.6%; there was little impact on inequalities. A targeted intervention to limit consumption to the EAR for children with above average intake reduced population obesity prevalence at 11 years by 1.5% but inequalities remained broadly unchanged. A targeted intervention for children of low-income families reduced prevalence by 0.7% and was found to slightly reduce inequalities. CONCLUSIONS: MSMs allow estimation of effects of simulated calorie-reduction interventions on childhood obesity prevalence and inequalities, although estimates are limited by the accuracy of reported calorie intake. Further work is needed to understand causal pathways and opportunities for intervention. Nevertheless, simulated intervention techniques have promise for informing national policy where experimental data are not available

How Accurate and Robust Are the Phylogenetic Estimates of Austronesian Language Relationships?

We recently used computational phylogenetic methods on lexical data to test between two scenarios for the peopling of the Pacific. Our analyses of lexical data supported a pulse-pause scenario of Pacific settlement in which the Austronesian speakers originated in Taiwan around 5,200 years ago and rapidly spread through the Pacific in a series of expansion pulses and settlement pauses. We claimed that there was high congruence between traditional language subgroups and those observed in the language phylogenies, and that the estimated age of the Austronesian expansion at 5,200 years ago was consistent with the archaeological evidence. However, the congruence between the language phylogenies and the evidence from historical linguistics was not quantitatively assessed using tree comparison metrics. The robustness of the divergence time estimates to different calibration points was also not investigated exhaustively. Here we address these limitations by using a systematic tree comparison metric to calculate the similarity between the Bayesian phylogenetic trees and the subgroups proposed by historical linguistics, and by re-estimating the age of the Austronesian expansion using only the most robust calibrations. The results show that the Austronesian language phylogenies are highly congruent with the traditional subgroupings, and the date estimates are robust even when calculated using a restricted set of historical calibrations

Simultaneous in vivo positron emission tomography and magnetic resonance imaging

Positron emission tomography (PET) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are widely used in vivo imaging technologies with both clinical and biomedical research applications. The strengths of MRI include high-resolution, high-contrast morphologic imaging of soft tissues; the ability to image physiologic parameters such as diffusion and changes in oxygenation level resulting from neuronal stimulation; and the measurement of metabolites using chemical shift imaging. PET images the distribution of biologically targeted radiotracers with high sensitivity, but images generally lack anatomic context and are of lower spatial resolution. Integration of these technologies permits the acquisition of temporally correlated data showing the distribution of PET radiotracers and MRI contrast agents or MR-detectable metabolites, with registration to the underlying anatomy. An MRI-compatible PET scanner has been built for biomedical research applications that allows data from both modalities to be acquired simultaneously. Experiments demonstrate no effect of the MRI system on the spatial resolution of the PET system and <10% reduction in the fraction of radioactive decay events detected by the PET scanner inside the MRI. The signal-to-noise ratio and uniformity of the MR images, with the exception of one particular pulse sequence, were little affected by the presence of the PET scanner. In vivo simultaneous PET and MRI studies were performed in mice. Proof-of-principle in vivo MR spectroscopy and functional MRI experiments were also demonstrated with the combined scanner

Parental modelling, media equipment and screen-viewing among young children : cross-sectional study

Objective: To examine whether parental screenviewing, parental attitudes or access to media equipment were associated with the screen-viewing of 6-year-old to 8-year-old children. Design: Cross-sectional survey. Setting: Online survey. Main outcome: Parental report of the number of hours per weekday that they and, separately, their 6- year-old to 8-year-old child spent watching TV, using a games console, a smart-phone and multiscreen viewing. Parental screen-viewing, parental attitudes and pieces of media equipment were exposures. Results: Over 75% of the parents and 62% of the children spent more than 2 h/weekday watching TV. Over two-thirds of the parents and almost 40% of the children spent more than an hour per day multiscreen viewing. The mean number of pieces of media equipment in the home was 5.9 items, with 1.3 items in the child’s bedroom. Children who had parents who spent more than 2 h/day watching TV were over 7.8 times more likely to exceed the 2 h threshold. Girls and boys who had a parent who spent an hour or more multiscreen viewing were 34 times more likely to also spend more than an hour per day multiscreen viewing. Media equipment in the child’s bedroom was associated with higher TV viewing, computer time and multiscreen viewing. Each increment in the parental agreement that watching TV was relaxing for their child was associated with a 49% increase in the likelihood that the child spent more than 2 h/day watching TV. Conclusions: Children who have parents who engage in high levels of screen-viewing are more likely to engage in high levels of screen-viewing. Access to media equipment, particularly in the child’s bedroom, was associated with higher levels of screen-viewing. Family-based strategies to reduce screen-viewing and limit media equipment access may be important ways to reduce child screen-viewing

Process evaluation of the Teamplay parenting intervention pilot : implications for recruitment, retention and course refinement

Background Parenting programs could provide effective routes to increasing children’s physical activity and reducing screen-viewing. Many studies have reported difficulties in recruiting and retaining families in group parenting interventions. This paper uses qualitative data from the Teamplay feasibility trial to examine parents’ views on recruitment, attendance and course refinement. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 16 intervention and 10 control group parents of 6–8 year old children. Topics discussed with the intervention group included parents’ views on the recruitment, structure, content and delivery of the course. Topics discussed with the control group included recruitment and randomization. Interviews were digitally recorded, transcribed and thematically analyzed. Results Many parents in both the intervention and control group reported that they joined the study because they had been thinking about ways to improve their parenting skills, getting ideas on how to change behavior, or had been actively looking for a parenting course but with little success in enrolling on one. Both intervention and control group parents reported that the initial promotional materials and indicative course topics resonated with their experiences and represented a possible solution to parenting challenges. Participants reported that the course leaders played an important role in helping them to feel comfortable during the first session, engaging anxious parents and putting parents at ease. The most commonly reported reason for parents returning to the course after an absence was because they wanted to learn new information. The majority of parents reported that they formed good relationships with the other parents in the group. An empathetic interaction style in which leaders accommodated parent’s busy lives appeared to impact positively on course attendance. Conclusions The data presented indicate that a face-to-face recruitment campaign which built trust and emphasized how the program was relevant to families positively affected recruitment in Teamplay. Parents found the parenting component of the intervention attractive and, once recruited, attendance was facilitated by enjoyable sessions, empathetic leaders and support from fellow participants. Overall, data suggest that the Teamplay recruitment and retention approaches were successful and with small refinements could be effectively used in a larger trial

Advertising and Young People's Critical Reasoning Abilities: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Young people are exposed to an abundance of advertising for unhealthy products (eg, unhealthy foods, tobacco, alcohol). Because of their developing cognition, children may not be able to understand the intent of advertising. However, advertising restrictions often assume that adolescents have critical reasoning capacity and can resist the effects of advertising. This review seeks to assess whether the evidence supports this assumption. METHODS: Ten databases were searched in December 2020. Inclusion criteria were participants aged 6 to 17 years, any advertising exposure, objectively measured understanding or attitudinal outcome, a comparison, control, and between-group comparison. This study included all languages and excluded studies published pre-2010. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed study quality. RESULTS: Thirty-eight articles were included. Meta-analysis of 9 studies with attitudinal outcomes indicated that unhealthy product advertising generated more positive brand or product attitudes compared with neutral or no advertising control in all ages. There were significant effects for digital and nondigital advertising formats. We found greater understanding did not protect against the impact of advertising on brand or product attitudes. Limitations include the inability to meta-analyze the impact of advertising on understanding or the influence of age. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence shows that the attitudes of young people were influenced by advertising. Critical reasoning abilities did not appear to be fully developed during adolescence and not found to be protective against the impact of advertising. Policymakers should ensure regulations to restrict marketing of unhealthy commodities protects adolescents as well as younger children

Shining new light on mammalian diving physiology using wearable near-infrared spectroscopy

Investigation of marine mammal dive-by-dive blood distribution and oxygenation has been limited by a lack of non-invasive technology for use in freely diving animals. Here, we developed a non-invasive near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) device to measure relative changes in blood volume and haemoglobin oxygenation continuously in the blubber and brain of voluntarily diving harbour seals. Our results show that seals routinely exhibit preparatory peripheral vasoconstriction accompanied by increased cerebral blood volume approximately 15 s before submersion. These anticipatory adjustments confirm that blood redistribution in seals is under some degree of cognitive control that precedes the mammalian dive response. Seals also routinely increase cerebral oxygenation at a consistent time during each dive, despite a lack of access to ambient air. We suggest that this frequent and reproducible reoxygenation pattern, without access to ambient air, is underpinned by previously unrecognised changes in cerebral drainage. The ability to track blood volume and oxygenation in different tissues using NIRS will facilitate a more accurate understanding of physiological plasticity in diving animals in an increasingly disturbed and exploited environment