Estimating causal networks in biosphere–atmosphere interaction with the PCMCI approach

Local meteorological conditions and biospheric activity are tightly coupled. Understanding these links is an essential prerequisite for predicting the Earth system under climate change conditions. However, many empirical studies on the interaction between the biosphere and the atmosphere are based on correlative approaches that are not able to deduce causal paths, and only very few studies apply causal discovery methods. Here, we use a recently proposed causal graph discovery algorithm, which aims to reconstruct the causal dependency structure underlying a set of time series. We explore the potential of this method to infer temporal dependencies in biosphere-atmosphere interactions. Specifically we address the following questions: How do periodicity and heteroscedasticity influence causal detection rates, i.e. the detection of existing and non-existing links? How consistent are results for noise-contaminated data? Do results exhibit an increased information content that justifies the use of this causal-inference method? We explore the first question using artificial time series with well known dependencies that mimic real-world biosphere-atmosphere interactions. The two remaining questions are addressed jointly in two case studies utilizing observational data. Firstly, we analyse three replicated eddy covariance datasets from a Mediterranean ecosystem at half hourly time resolution allowing us to understand the impact of measurement uncertainties. Secondly, we analyse global NDVI time series (GIMMS 3g) along with gridded climate data to study large-scale climatic drivers of vegetation greenness. Overall, the results confirm the capacity of the causal discovery method to extract time-lagged linear dependencies under realistic settings. The violation of the method's assumptions increases the likelihood to detect false links. Nevertheless, we consistently identify interaction patterns in observational data. Our findings suggest that estimating a directed biosphere-atmosphere network at the ecosystem level can offer novel possibilities to unravel complex multi-directional interactions. Other than classical correlative approaches, our findings are constrained to a few meaningful set of relations which can be powerful insights for the evaluation of terrestrial ecosystem models

Quantum simulations of the superfluid-insulator transition for two-dimensional, disordered, hard-core bosons

We introduce two novel quantum Monte Carlo methods and employ them to study the superfluid-insulator transition in a two-dimensional system of hard-core bosons. One of the methods is appropriate for zero temperature and is based upon Green's function Monte Carlo; the other is a finite-temperature world-line cluster algorithm. In each case we find that the dynamical exponent is consistent with the theoretical prediction of $z=2$ by Fisher and co-workers.Comment: Revtex, 10 pages, 3 figures (postscript files attached at end, separated by %%%%%% Fig # %%%%%, where # is 1-3). LA-UR-94-270

Green Function Monte Carlo with Stochastic Reconfiguration

A new method for the stabilization of the sign problem in the Green Function Monte Carlo technique is proposed. The method is devised for real lattice Hamiltonians and is based on an iterative ''stochastic reconfiguration'' scheme which introduces some bias but allows a stable simulation with constant sign. The systematic reduction of this bias is in principle possible. The method is applied to the frustrated J1-J2 Heisenberg model, and tested against exact diagonalization data. Evidence of a finite spin gap for J2/J1 >~ 0.4 is found in the thermodynamic limit.Comment: 13 pages, RevTeX + 3 encapsulated postscript figure

Two-dimensional Superfluidity and Localization in the Hard-Core Boson Model: a Quantum Monte Carlo Study

Quantum Monte Carlo simulations are used to investigate the two-dimensional superfluid properties of the hard-core boson model, which show a strong dependence on particle density and disorder. We obtain further evidence that a half-filled clean system becomes superfluid via a finite temperature Kosterlitz-Thouless transition. The relationship between low temperature superfluid density and particle density is symmetric and appears parabolic about the half filling point. Disorder appears to break the superfluid phase up into two distinct localized states, depending on the particle density. We find that these results strongly correlate with the results of several experiments on high-$T_c$ superconductors.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures upon request, RevTeX version 3, (accepted for Phys. Rev. B

Ground state parameters, finite-size scaling, and low-temperature properties of the two-dimensional S=1/2 XY model

We present high-precision quantum Monte Carlo results for the S=1/2 XY model on a two-dimensional square lattice, in the ground state as well as at finite temperature. The energy, the spin stiffness, the magnetization, and the susceptibility are calculated and extrapolated to the thermodynamic limit. For the ground state, we test a variety of finite-size scaling predictions of effective Lagrangian theory and find good agreement and consistency between the finite-size corrections for different quantities. The low-temperature behavior of the susceptibility and the internal energy is also in good agreement with theoretical predictions.Comment: 6 pages, 8 figure

Mortality of Cranes (Gruidae) Associated with Powerlines over a Major Roost on the Platte River, Nebraska

Two 69-kilovolt powerlines spanning the Platte River in south central Nebraska are suspected to cause substantial mortality to sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) and pose a threat to endangered whooping cranes (G. americana) that roost overnight on the river during spring and fall migrations. Most studies of crane collisions with powerlines in the region have focused on counts of carcasses away from night roosts on the river and none have accounted for potential biases in detecting carcasses. We found 61 carcasses of sandhill cranes below over-river segments of the two powerlines during 4 March to 7 April 2006 and 90 such carcasses between 5 March and 13 April 2007. In 2007 we estimated the number of carcasses undetected in our surveys due to removal by scavengers, loss to downstream flow, and observer oversight. We estimated between 165 and 219 sandhill cranes were killed by the two powerlines during spring 2007. These cnlculations exclude mortalities from individuals injured by powerline collisions and dying elsewhere, as well as those killed before or after our 5 March to 13 April survey period. We detected no evidence of mortality for whooping cranes during our surveys. Our results corroborate anecdotal evidence of signficant sandhill crane mortality each spring due to collisions with above-ground powerlines at this major night roost. Collisions by sandhill cranes will continue and collisions by Whooping cranes seem likely unless an effective means of averting birds from powerlines is implemented at this site

The Debye-Waller Factor in solid 3He and 4He

The Debye-Waller factor and the mean-squared displacement from lattice sites for solid 3He and 4He were calculated with Path Integral Monte Carlo at temperatures between 5 K and 35 K, and densities between 38 nm^(-3) and 67 nm^(-3). It was found that the mean-squared displacement exhibits finite-size scaling consistent with a crossover between the quantum and classical limits of N^(-2/3) and N^(-1/3), respectively. The temperature dependence appears to be T^3, different than expected from harmonic theory. An anisotropic k^4 term was also observed in the Debye-Waller factor, indicating the presence of non-Gaussian corrections to the density distribution around lattice sites. Our results, extrapolated to the thermodynamic limit, agree well with recent values from scattering experiments.Comment: 5 figure

Total energies from variational functionals of the Green function and the renormalized four-point vertex

We derive variational expressions for the grand potential or action in terms of the many-body Green function $G$ which describes the propagation of particles and the renormalized four-point vertex $\Gamma$ which describes the scattering of two particles in many-body systems. The main ingredient of the variational functionals is a term we denote as the $\Xi$-functional which plays a role analogously to the usual $\Phi$-functional studied by Baym (G.Baym, Phys.Rev. 127, 1391 (1962)) in connection with the conservation laws in many-body systems. We show that any $\Xi$-derivable theory is also $\Phi$-derivable and therefore respects the conservation laws. We further set up a computational scheme to obtain accurate total energies from our variational functionals without having to solve computationally expensive sets of self-consistent equations. The input of the functional is an approximate Green function $\tilde{G}$ and an approximate four-point vertex $\tilde{\Gamma}$ obtained at a relatively low computational cost. The variational property of the functional guarantees that the error in the total energy is only of second order in deviations of the input Green function and vertex from the self-consistent ones that make the functional stationary. The functionals that we will consider for practical applications correspond to infinite order summations of ladder and exchange diagrams and are therefore particularly suited for applications to highly correlated systems. Their practical evaluation is discussed in detail.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures. Physical Review B (accepted