Coupling between annual and ENSO timescales in the malaria-climate association in Colombia.

We present evidence that the El Niño phenomenon intensifies the annual cycle of malaria cases for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in endemic areas of Colombia as a consequence of concomitant anomalies in the normal annual cycle of temperature and precipitation. We used simultaneous analyses of both variables at both timescales, as well as correlation and power spectral analyses of detailed spatial (municipal) and temporal (monthly) records. During "normal years," endemic malaria in rural Colombia exhibits a clear-cut "normal" annual cycle, which is tightly associated with prevalent climatic conditions, mainly mean temperature, precipitation, dew point, and river discharges. During historical El Niño events (interannual time scale), the timing of malaria outbreaks does not change from the annual cycle, but the number of cases intensifies. Such anomalies are associated with a consistent pattern of hydrological and climatic anomalies: increase in mean temperature, decrease in precipitation, increase in dew point, and decrease in river discharges, all of which favor malaria transmission. Such coupling explains why the effect appears stronger and more persistent during the second half of El Niño's year (0), and during the first half of the year (+1). We illustrate this finding with data for diverse localities in Buenaventura (on the Pacific coast) and Caucasia (along the Cauca river floodplain), but conclusions have been found valid for multiple localities throughout endemic regions of Colombia. The identified coupling between annual and interannual timescales in the climate-malaria system shed new light toward understanding the exact linkages between environmental, entomological, and epidemiological factors conductive to malaria outbreaks, and also imposes the coupling of those timescales in public health intervention programs

Double percolation effects and fractal behavior in magnetic/superconducting hybrids

Perpendicular magnetic anisotropy ferromagnetic/superconducting (FM/SC) bilayers with a labyrinth domain structure are used to study nucleation of superconductivity on a fractal network, tunable through magnetic history. As clusters of reversed domains appear in the FM layer, the SC film shows a percolative behavior that depends on two independent processes: the arrangement of initial reversed domains and the fractal geometry of expanding clusters. For a full labyrinth structure, the behavior of the upper critical field is typical of confined superconductivity on a fractal network

Persons with first episode psychosis have distinct profiles of social cognition and metacognition

Altres ajuts: Obra Social La Caixa (RecerCaixa call 2013), by the Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI, Spain). Junta de Andalucía: PI-0634/2011; PI-0193/2014.Subjects with first-episode psychosis experience substantial deficits in social cognition and metacognition. Although previous studies have investigated the role of profiles of individuals in social cognition and metacognition in chronic schizophrenia, profiling subjects with first-episode psychosis in both domains remains to be investigated. We used latent profile analysis to derive profiles of the abilities in 174 persons with first-episode psychosis using the Beck's Cognitive Insight Scale, the Faces Test, the Hinting Task, the Internal, Personal and Situational Attributions Questionnaire, and the Beads Task. Participants received a clinical assessment and a neuropsychological assessment. The best-fitting model was selected according to the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). We assessed the importance of the variables via a classification tree (CART). We derived three clusters with distinct profiles. The first profile (33.3%) comprised individuals with low social cognition. The second profile (60.9%) comprised individuals that had more proneness to present jumping to conclusions. The third profile (5.7%) presented a heterogeneous profile of metacognitive deficits. Persons with lower social cognition presented worse clinical and neuropsychological features than cluster 2 and cluster 3. Cluster 3 presented significantly worst functioning. Our results suggest that individuals with FEP present distinct profiles that concur with specific clinical, neuropsychological, and functional challenges. Each subgroup may benefit from different interventions

Modelling entomological-climatic interactions of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two Colombian endemic-regions: contributions to a National Malaria Early Warning System

BACKGROUND: Malaria has recently re-emerged as a public health burden in Colombia. Although the problem seems to be climate-driven, there remain significant gaps of knowledge in the understanding of the complexity of malaria transmission, which have motivated attempts to develop a comprehensive model. METHODS: The mathematical tool was applied to represent Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two endemic-areas. Entomological exogenous variables were estimated through field campaigns and laboratory experiments. Availability of breeding places was included towards representing fluctuations in vector densities. Diverse scenarios, sensitivity analyses and instabilities cases were considered during experimentation-validation process. RESULTS: Correlation coefficients and mean square errors between observed and modelled incidences reached 0.897–0.668 (P > 0.95) and 0.0002–0.0005, respectively. Temperature became the most relevant climatic parameter driving the final incidence. Accordingly, malaria outbreaks are possible during the favourable epochs following the onset of El Niño warm events. Sporogonic and gonotrophic cycles showed to be the entomological key-variables controlling the transmission potential of mosquitoes' population. Simulation results also showed that seasonality of vector density becomes an important factor towards understanding disease transmission. CONCLUSION: The model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the multiple interactions related to malaria transmission conducive to outbreaks. In the foreseeable future it could be implemented as a tool to diagnose possible dynamical patterns of malaria incidence under several scenarios, as well as a decision-making tool for the early detection and control of outbreaks. The model will be also able to be merged with forecasts of El Niño events to provide a National Malaria Early Warning System

Observation of the Crab Nebula with the HAWC Gamma-Ray Observatory

The Crab Nebula is the brightest TeV gamma-ray source in the sky and has been used for the past 25 years as a reference source in TeV astronomy, for calibration and verification of new TeV instruments. The High Altitude Water Cherenkov Observatory (HAWC), completed in early 2015, has been used to observe the Crab Nebula at high significance across nearly the full spectrum of energies to which HAWC is sensitive. HAWC is unique for its wide field-of-view, nearly 2 sr at any instant, and its high-energy reach, up to 100 TeV. HAWC's sensitivity improves with the gamma-ray energy. Above $\sim$1 TeV the sensitivity is driven by the best background rejection and angular resolution ever achieved for a wide-field ground array. We present a time-integrated analysis of the Crab using 507 live days of HAWC data from 2014 November to 2016 June. The spectrum of the Crab is fit to a function of the form $\phi(E) = \phi_0 (E/E_{0})^{-\alpha -\beta\cdot{\rm{ln}}(E/E_{0})}$. The data is well-fit with values of $\alpha=2.63\pm0.03$, $\beta=0.15\pm0.03$, and log$_{10}(\phi_0~{\rm{cm}^2}~{\rm{s}}~{\rm{TeV}})=-12.60\pm0.02$ when $E_{0}$ is fixed at 7 TeV and the fit applies between 1 and 37 TeV. Study of the systematic errors in this HAWC measurement is discussed and estimated to be $\pm$50\% in the photon flux between 1 and 37 TeV. Confirmation of the Crab flux serves to establish the HAWC instrument's sensitivity for surveys of the sky. The HAWC survey will exceed sensitivity of current-generation observatories and open a new view of 2/3 of the sky above 10 TeV.Comment: Submitted 2017/01/06 to the Astrophysical Journa

Daily monitoring of TeV gamma-ray emission from Mrk 421, Mrk 501, and the Crab Nebula with HAWC

We present results from daily monitoring of gamma rays in the energy range $\sim0.5$ to $\sim100$ TeV with the first 17 months of data from the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Observatory. Its wide field of view of 2 steradians and duty cycle of $>95$% are unique features compared to other TeV observatories that allow us to observe every source that transits over HAWC for up to $\sim6$ hours each sidereal day. This regular sampling yields unprecedented light curves from unbiased measurements that are independent of seasons or weather conditions. For the Crab Nebula as a reference source we find no variability in the TeV band. Our main focus is the study of the TeV blazars Markarian (Mrk) 421 and Mrk 501. A spectral fit for Mrk 421 yields a power law index $\Gamma=2.21 \pm0.14_{\mathrm{stat}}\pm0.20_{\mathrm{sys}}$ and an exponential cut-off $E_0=5.4 \pm 1.1_{\mathrm{stat}}\pm 1.0_{\mathrm{sys}}$ TeV. For Mrk 501, we find an index $\Gamma=1.60\pm 0.30_{\mathrm{stat}} \pm 0.20_{\mathrm{sys}}$ and exponential cut-off $E_0=5.7\pm 1.6_{\mathrm{stat}} \pm 1.0_{\mathrm{sys}}$ TeV. The light curves for both sources show clear variability and a Bayesian analysis is applied to identify changes between flux states. The highest per-transit fluxes observed from Mrk 421 exceed the Crab Nebula flux by a factor of approximately five. For Mrk 501, several transits show fluxes in excess of three times the Crab Nebula flux. In a comparison to lower energy gamma-ray and X-ray monitoring data with comparable sampling we cannot identify clear counterparts for the most significant flaring features observed by HAWC.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa

VAMOS: a Pathfinder for the HAWC Gamma-Ray Observatory

VAMOS was a prototype detector built in 2011 at an altitude of 4100m a.s.l. in the state of Puebla, Mexico. The aim of VAMOS was to finalize the design, construction techniques and data acquisition system of the HAWC observatory. HAWC is an air-shower array currently under construction at the same site of VAMOS with the purpose to study the TeV sky. The VAMOS setup included six water Cherenkov detectors and two different data acquisition systems. It was in operation between October 2011 and May 2012 with an average live time of 30%. Besides the scientific verification purposes, the eight months of data were used to obtain the results presented in this paper: the detector response to the Forbush decrease of March 2012, and the analysis of possible emission, at energies above 30 GeV, for long gamma-ray bursts GRB111016B and GRB120328B.Comment: Accepted for pubblication in Astroparticle Physics Journal (20 pages, 10 figures). Corresponding authors: A.Marinelli and D.Zaboro

Extended gamma-ray sources around pulsars constrain the origin of the positron flux at Earth

The unexpectedly high flux of cosmic ray positrons detected at Earth may originate from nearby astrophysical sources, dark matter, or unknown processes of cosmic-ray secondary production. We report the detection, using the HighAltitude Water Cherenkov Observatory (HAWC), of extended tera-electron volt gamma-ray emission coincident with the locations of two nearby middle-aged pulsars (Geminga and PSR B0656+14). The HAWC observations demonstrate that these pulsars are indeed local sources of accelerated leptons, but the measured tera-electron volt emission profile constrains the diffusion of particles away from these sources to be much slower than previously assumed. We demonstrate that the leptons emitted by these objects are therefore unlikely to be the origin of the excess positrons, which may have a more exotic origin.Comment: 16 pages (including supplementary material), 5 figure