Protectionist but globalised? Latin American custom duties and trade during the pre-1914 belle époque

While it is true that Latin American republics had no rival on maximising revenues from custom collection during the belle époque, this paper shows that Latin American countries were also generous importers, only behind the larger commercial countries of Western Europe in terms of imports per capita. Latin American citizens were much more linked to international trade than citizens of most regions of the world. Their relation to the world economy was tighter both via their imports and their exports relative to their population and income levels. This paper comes to show that there is no contradiction between the high custom collection by the Latin American republics and their high level of interaction with the global economy in the pre-1914 belle époque, although large country differences can be observed when descending from the regional to the national level.First globalisation, Imports, Exports, Custom duties, Protectionism, Latin America

Value and depreciation of mineral resources over the very long run: An empirical contrast of different methods

The paper contrasts empirically the results of alternative methods for estimating the value and the depreciation of mineral resources. The historical data of Mexico and Venezuela, covering the period 1920s-1980s, is used to contrast the results of several methods. These are the present value, the net price method, the user cost method and the imputed income method. The paper establishes that the net price and the user cost are not competing methods as such, but alternative adjustments to different scenarios of closed and open economies. The results prove that the biases of the methods, as commonly described in the theoretical literature, only hold under the most restricted scenario of constant rents over time. It is argued that the difference between what is expected to happen and what actually did happen is for the most part due to a missing variable, namely technological change. This is an important caveat to the recommendations made based on these models.Value, depreciation, mineral assets, net price, user costs, imputed income, environmental accounts

The role of Mexico in the first oil shortage: 1918-1922, an international perspective

In 1921 Mexico produced a quarter of world’s petroleum, making the country the second largest producer in the world, but by 1930 it only accounted for 3 per cent of world’s production. To date the discussion has mostly relied on events taking place in Mexico for explaining the decline of the industry. Very little attention has been placed to developments in petroleum industry elsewhere, except Venezuela. Practically no attention has been paid to the reasons for the rise of oil output in Mexico. This neglects the massive changes taking place in the petroleum industry worldwide during the Great War years and its aftermath, and overall ignores the shortage of oil that occurred in the world’s markets between 1918-1921. These are crucial events in order to understand the early rise of the Mexican oil industry and set the basis for a better understanding of the subsequent sudden decline.World’s petroleum supply, Mexico, First World War, energy shortage

On the accuracy of Latin American trade statistics: A nonparametric test for 1925

This paper proposes a nonparametric test in order to establish the level of accuracy of the foreign trade statistics of 17 Latin American countries when contrasted with the trade statistics of the main partners in 1925. The Wilcoxon Matched-Pairs Ranks test is used to determine whether the differences between the data registered by exporters and importers are meaningful, and if so, whether the differences are systematic in any direction. The paper tests for the reliability of the data registered for two homogeneous products, petroleum and coal, both in volume and value. The conclusion of the several exercises performed is that we cannot accept the existence of statistically significant differences between the data provided by the exporters and the registered by the importing countries in most cases. The qualitative historiography of Latin American describes its foreign trade statistics as mostly unusable. Our quantitative results contest this view.Latin America, statistical accuracy, international trade data, nonparametric methods, petroleum trade, coal trade.

Energy as an indicator of modernisation in Latin America by 1925

In absence of comparable macroeconomic indicators for most of the Latin American economies beyond the 1930s, this paper presents an estimate of the apparent consumption per head of coal and petroleum for 25 countries of Latin American and the Caribbean for the year 1925, doubling the number of countries for which energy consumption estimates were previously available. Energy consumption is then used as an indicator of economic modernisation. As a result, the paper provides the basis for a quantitative comparative analysis of modernisation performance beyond the few countries for which historical national accounts are available in Latin America.Energy consumption, modernisation, Latin America, petroleum, coal

The role of Mexico in the first world oil shortage: 1918–1922, an international perspective

In 1921 Mexico produced a quarter of the world’s petroleum, making the country the second largest producer in the world, but by 1930 it only accounted for 3 per cent of production. To date, the debate surrounding this decline has relied mainly on events taking place in Mexico. Very little attention has been paid to developments elsewhere in the petroleum industry, except in Venezuela. Practically no attention has been paid to the reasons for the rise of oil output in Mexico. The massive changes which took place in the petroleum industry during the Great War years and its aftermath and especially the shortage of oil which occurred on world markets between 1918 and 1921 have been neglected. These events are crucial in order to understand the initial rise of the Mexican oil industry and help to understand the subsequent sudden decline.En 1921 México producía un cuarto del petróleo mundial, siendo el segundo mayor productor en el mundo, pero para 1930 ya sólo representaba el 3 por cien de la producción. Hasta la fecha la mayor parte de la discusión se ha basado en los hechos acaecidos en México para explicar el declive de la industria petrolera, poniéndose muy poca atención en los acontecimientos de la industria petrolera en otros lugares, salvo en Venezuela. Prácticamente ningún esfuerzo se ha dedicado a entender las razones del auge, ignorando así los cambios masivos que tuvieron lugar en la industria petrolera durante la Primera Guerra Mundial y la inmediata posguerra, y sobre todo, olvidando la crisis energética que se produjo entre 1918 y 1921. Estos eventos son cruciales a la hora de comprender el primer auge de la industria petrolera mexicana y sientan las bases para comprender mejor el posterior súbito declive

The Energy Mix Concentration Index (EMCI): Methodological considerations for implementation

The Energy Mix Concentration Index (EMCI)is a quantitative indicator of concentration of the energy mix based upon the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. We use the EMCI to compare the evolution of the diversification (versus concentration)of energy mixes in the long-term in order to reveal the transformations of the energy structures which determine energy transitions. In this methodological paper we make explicit how to aggregate the energy sources in order to calculate the EMCI, including questions of detail such us the level of aggregation and the transformation of primary electricity to add it up to total consumption. We present alternative figures that illustrate some additional aspects of the relation of the EMCI to total consumption, consumption per capita and energy annual growth. We also show the sensitivity of the indicator to alternative specifications (with and without pre-modern energy sources)and alternative data sets, proving its robustness. • Indicate how to aggregate energy carriers in the calculation of a quantitative index of concentration of the energy mix. • Compare alternative specifications (with or without pre-modern energy carriers). • EMCI focus on the major energy sources in the energy systems

200 years diversifying the energy mix? Diversification paths of the energy baskets of European early comers vs. latecomers

The changes in the composition of the energy basket in the long run lead to energy transitions. Primary energy substitution models allow addressing these phenomena. However, the diversification paths of the energy mix of different countries in a long term compared perspective have not been studied yet. This paper proposes an indicator, based on the Herfindahl‐Hirschman Index, the Energy Mix Concentration Index (EMCI), to quantify the degree of diversification of the primary energy basket of eight European countries over the last two centuries. The results reveal that early comers, which are large energy consumers, required a huge concentration of their energy basket in the 19th century; however, the observed countries had converged to similar levels of diversification of their energy mixes from the second half of the 20th century, and more crucially after the oil crises. For some countries, today’s degree of diversification is the largest in their energy histories, but it is not the case for all of them. Our results suggest that small energy consuming countries would be able to achieve higher diversification, and therefore to do a faster transition to a low carbon economy, than large energy consumer

Modern energy consumption and economic modernisation in Latin America and the Caribbean between 1890 and 1925

In the absence of comparable macroeconomic indicators for most of the Latin American economies before the 1930s, the apparent consumption of energy is used in this paper as a proxy of the degree of modernisation of Latin America and the Caribbean. This paper presents an estimate of the apparent consumption per head of modern energies (coal, petroleum and hydroelectricity) for 30 countries of Latin American and the Caribbean for 1890 to 1925, multiplying the number of countries for which energy consumption estimates were previously available. As a result, the paper provides the basis for a quantitative comparative analysis of modernisation performance beyond the few countries for which historical national accounts are available in Latin America.Energy consumption, economic modernisation, Latin America