In Defence of No Best World

Recent work in the philosophy of religion has resurrected Leibniz’s idea that there is a best possible world, perhaps ours. In particular, Klaas Kraay’s [2010] construction of a theistic multiverse and Nevin Climenhaga’s [2018] argument from infinite value theory are novel defenses of a best possible world. I do not think that there is a best world, and show how both Kraay and Climenhaga may be resisted. First, I argue that Kraay’s construction of a theistic multiverse can be resisted from plausible assumptions about set theory. Next, I argue against the value-theoretic assumptions that underlie Climenhaga’s argument and show how to give an infinite value theory where there is no best world

Surreal Decisions

Although expected utility theory has proven a fruitful and elegant theory in the finite realm, attempts to generalize it to infinite values have resulted in many paradoxes. In this paper, we argue that the use of John Conway's surreal numbers shall provide a firm mathematical foundation for transfinite decision theory. To that end, we prove a surreal representation theorem and show that our surreal decision theory respects dominance reasoning even in the case of infinite values. We then bring our theory to bear on one of the more venerable decision problems in the literature: Pascal's Wager. Analyzing the wager showcases our theory's virtues and advantages. To that end, we analyze two objections against the wager: Mixed Strategies and Many Gods. After formulating the two objections in the framework of surreal utilities and probabilities, our theory correctly predicts that (1) the pure Pascalian strategy beats all mixed strategies, and (2) what one should do in a Pascalian decision problem depends on what one's credence function is like. Our analysis therefore suggests that although Pascal's Wager is mathematically coherent, it does not deliver what it purports to, a rationally compelling argument that people should lead a religious life regardless of how confident they are in theism and its alternatives

Performance analysis and optimal selection of large mean-variance portfolios under estimation risk

We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of assets remains comparable in magnitude to the sample size, we provide a characterization of the estimation risk by providing deterministic equivalents of the portfolio out-of-sample performance in terms of the underlying investment scenario. The previous estimates represent a means of quantifying the amount of risk underestimation and return overestimation of improved portfolio constructions beyond standard ones. Well-known for the latter, if not corrected, these deviations lead to inaccurate and overly optimistic Sharpe-based investment decisions. Our results are based on recent contributions in the field of random matrix theory. Along with the asymptotic analysis, the analytical framework allows us to find bias corrections improving on the achieved out-of-sample performance of typical portfolio constructions. Some numerical simulations validate our theoretical findings

Fermion Pairing and the Scalar Boson of the 2D Conformal Anomaly

We analyze the phenomenon of fermion pairing into an effective boson associated with anomalies and the anomalous commutators of currents bilinear in the fermion fields. In two spacetime dimensions the chiral bosonization of the Schwinger model is determined by the axial current anomaly of massless Dirac fermions. A similar bosonized description applies to the 2D conformal trace anomaly of the fermion stress tensor. For both the chiral and conformal anomalies, correlation functions involving anomalous currents, $j^{\mu}_5$ or $T^{\mu\nu}$ of massless fermions exhibit a massless boson $1/k^2$ pole, and the associated spectral functions obey a UV finite sum rule, becoming $\delta$-functions in the massless limit. In both cases the corresponding effective action of the anomaly is non-local, but may be expressed in a local form by the introduction of a new bosonic field, which becomes a bona fide propagating quantum field in its own right. In both cases this is expressed in Fock space by the anomalous Schwinger commutators of currents becoming the canonical commutation relations of the corresponding boson. The boson has a Fock space operator realization as a coherent superposition of massless fermion pairs, which saturates the intermediate state sums in quantum correlation functions of fermion currents. The Casimir energy of fermions on a finite spatial interval $[0,L]$ can also be described as a coherent scalar condensation of pairs, and the one-loop correlation function of any number $n$ of fermion stress tensors $\langle TT\dots T\rangle$ may be expressed as a combinatoric sum of $n!/2$ linear tree diagrams of the scalar boson.Comment: 58 pages, 8 figures; v2: minor revision, to appear in JHE