Planning with Information-Processing Constraints and Model Uncertainty in Markov Decision Processes

Information-theoretic principles for learning and acting have been proposed to solve particular classes of Markov Decision Problems. Mathematically, such approaches are governed by a variational free energy principle and allow solving MDP planning problems with information-processing constraints expressed in terms of a Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to a reference distribution. Here we consider a generalization of such MDP planners by taking model uncertainty into account. As model uncertainty can also be formalized as an information-processing constraint, we can derive a unified solution from a single generalized variational principle. We provide a generalized value iteration scheme together with a convergence proof. As limit cases, this generalized scheme includes standard value iteration with a known model, Bayesian MDP planning, and robust planning. We demonstrate the benefits of this approach in a grid world simulation.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figure

Early respiratory morbidity in a multicultural birth cohort: the Generation R Study

Ethnic disparities in the prevalence of asthma symptoms in children have been described. We evaluated to what extent the association between ethnic background and respiratory symptoms during the first 2 years of life could be explained by the mediating effect of risk factors for respiratory morbidity. The Generation R Study is a multiethnic, population-based birth cohort study. Pre and postnatal risk factors for respiratory morbidity were prospectively assessed by questionnaires. Information about ethnicity was available for 5,684 infants. The associations between ethnic background and lower respiratory symptoms at 12 and 24 months were evaluated with log-binomial regression models. Relative risks and 95 % confidence intervals (RR [95 % CI]) were computed for Cape Verdean, Moroccan, Antillean, Surinamese and Turkish ethnicity with Dutch ethnicity as the reference category. We found an increased risk of lower respiratory symptoms at 24 months in Antillean infants (1.32 [95 % CI 1.12–1.57]) that was mediated by early postnatal exposures (pets keeping, siblings, breastfeeding, daycare attendance, smoke exposure). Turkish infants also had an increased risk of lower respiratory symptoms at 12 and 24 months (1.14 [95 % CI 1.02–1.27] and 1.21 [95 % CI 1.07–1.38], respectively), partly explained by previous morbidity (eczema, infections and upper respiratory symptoms). There were no differences for Cape Verdean, Moroccan or Surinamese, as compared to Dutch infants. Hence, ethnic background was associated with respiratory symptoms during the first 2 years of life and this association was largely explained by mediating effects of known pre and postnatal risk factors for respiratory morbidity

Effect of the H1N1 Influenza Pandemic on the Incidence of Epidemic Keratoconjunctivitis and on Hygiene Behavior: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background: EKC is transmitted chiefly by direct hand contact. It is suspected that the 2009/2010 influenza pandemic influenced hand washing. This study aims to examine the relationship between the 2009/2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic and hygiene behavior. Methods: We compared the EKC prevalence trends before, during and after the 2009/2010 influenza pandemic by using a t-test comparison of EKC sentinel surveillance. Results: During the pre-pandemic period, the incidence of EKC increased from the 21st to the 44th week each year. However, during the pandemic period in 2009, there was no epidemic peak. In the post-pandemic period, the epidemic curve was similar to that in the pre-pandemic period. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, the total number of EKC patients during the pandemic period showed a decrease of 44.9 % (t value = 27.23, p = 0.002). Comparing the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods by age group, we found there to be a significant decrease in the number of EKC patients for all age groups (24.12#t value#27.23, all P,0.05). This finding was most evident in the teenage group (62%) compared to the other age groups (decreases of 29 to 44%). Conclusions: A continuing effort should be made to educate the public on basic infection prevention behaviors in th

Profiling quality of care: Is there a role for peer review?

BACKGROUND: We sought to develop a more reliable structured implicit chart review instrument for use in assessing the quality of care for chronic disease and to examine if ratings are more reliable for conditions in which the evidence base for practice is more developed. METHODS: We conducted a reliability study in a cohort with patient records including both outpatient and inpatient care as the objects of measurement. We developed a structured implicit review instrument to assess the quality of care over one year of treatment. 12 reviewers conducted a total of 496 reviews of 70 patient records selected from 26 VA clinical sites in two regions of the country. Each patient had between one and four conditions specified as having a highly developed evidence base (diabetes and hypertension) or a less developed evidence base (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or a collection of acute conditions). Multilevel analysis that accounts for the nested and cross-classified structure of the data was used to estimate the signal and noise components of the measurement of quality and the reliability of implicit review. RESULTS: For COPD and a collection of acute conditions the reliability of a single physician review was quite low (intra-class correlation = 0.16–0.26) but comparable to most previously published estimates for the use of this method in inpatient settings. However, for diabetes and hypertension the reliability is significantly higher at 0.46. The higher reliability is a result of the reviewers collectively being able to distinguish more differences in the quality of care between patients (p < 0.007) and not due to less random noise or individual reviewer bias in the measurement. For these conditions the level of true quality (i.e. the rating of quality of care that would result from the full population of physician reviewers reviewing a record) varied from poor to good across patients. CONCLUSIONS: For conditions with a well-developed quality of care evidence base, such as hypertension and diabetes, a single structured implicit review to assess the quality of care over a period of time is moderately reliable. This method could be a reasonable complement or alternative to explicit indicator approaches for assessing and comparing quality of care. Structured implicit review, like explicit quality measures, must be used more cautiously for illnesses for which the evidence base is less well developed, such as COPD and acute, short-course illnesses

Prevalence of overweight in children and adolescents with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and autism spectrum disorders: a chart review

BACKGROUND: The condition of obesity has become a significant public health problem in the United States. In children and adolescents, the prevalence of overweight has tripled in the last 20 years, with approximately 16.0% of children ages 6–19, and 10.3% of 2–5 year olds being considered overweight. Considerable research is underway to understand obesity in the general pediatric population, however little research is available on the prevalence of obesity in children with developmental disorders. The purpose of our study was to determine the prevalence of overweight among a clinical population of children diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and autism spectrum disorders (ASD). METHODS: Retrospective chart review of 140 charts of children ages 3–18 years seen between 1992 and 2003 at a tertiary care clinic that specializes in the evaluation and treatment of children with developmental, behavioral, and cognitive disorders. Diagnostic, medical, and demographic information was extracted from the charts. Primary diagnoses of either ADHD or ASD were recorded, as was information on race/ethnicity, age, gender, height, and weight. Information was also collected on medications that the child was taking. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated from measures of height and weight recorded in the child's chart. The Center for Disease Control's BMI growth reference was used to determine an age- and gender-specific BMI z-score for the children. RESULTS: The prevalence of at-risk-for-overweight (BMI >85th%ile) and overweight (BMI > 95th%ile) was 29% and 17.3% respectively in children with ADHD. Although the prevalence appeared highest in the 2–5 year old group (42.9%ile), differences among age groups were not statistically significant. Prevalence did not differ between boys and girls or across age groups (all p > 0.05). For children with ASD, the overall prevalence of at-risk-for-overweight was 35.7% and prevalence of overweight was 19%. CONCLUSION: When compared to an age-matched reference population (NHANES 1999–2002), our estimates indicate that children with ADHD and with ASD have a prevalence of overweight that is similar to children in the general population

Two Brothers with Skewed Thiopurine Metabolism in Ulcerative Colitis Treated Successfully with Allopurinol and Mercaptopurine Dose Reduction

Thiopurine therapy effectively maintains remission in inflammatory bowel disease. However, many patients are unable to achieve optimum benefits from azathioprine or 6-mercaptopurine because of undesirable metabolism related to high thiopurine methyltransferase (TPMT) activity characterized by hepatic transaminitis secondary to increased 6-methylmercaptopurine (6-MMP) production and reduced levels of therapeutic 6-thioguanine nucleotide (6-TGN). Allopurinol can optimize this skewed metabolism. We discuss two brothers who were both diagnosed with ulcerative colitis (UC). Their disease remained active despite oral and topical mesalamines. Steroids followed by 6-mercaptopurine (MP) were unsuccessfully introduced for both patients and both were found to have high 6-MMP and low 6-TGN levels, despite normal TMPT enzyme activity, accompanied by transaminitis. Allopurinol was introduced in combination with MP dose reduction. For both brothers addition of allopurinol was associated with successful remission and optimized MP metabolites. These siblings with active UC illustrate that skewed thiopurine metabolism may occur despite normal TPMT enzyme activity and can lead to adverse events in the absence of disease control. We confirm previous data showing that addition of allopurinol can reverse this skewed metabolism, and reduce both hepatotoxicity and disease activity, but we now also introduce the concept of a family history of preferential MP metabolism as a clue to effective management for other family members

The Lausanne cohort Lc65+: a population-based prospective study of the manifestations, determinants and outcomes of frailty

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a relatively new geriatric concept referring to an increased vulnerability to stressors. Various definitions have been proposed, as well as a range of multidimensional instruments for its measurement. More recently, a frailty phenotype that predicts a range of adverse outcomes has been described. Understanding frailty is a particular challenge both from a clinical and a public health perspective because it may be a reversible precursor of functional dependence. The Lausanne cohort Lc65+ is a longitudinal study specifically designed to investigate the manifestations of frailty from its first signs in the youngest old, identify medical and psychosocial determinants, and describe its evolution and related outcomes. METHODS/DESIGN: The Lc65+ cohort was launched in 2004 with the random selection of 3054 eligible individuals aged 65 to 70 (birth year 1934-1938) in the non-institutionalized population of Lausanne (Switzerland). The baseline data collection was completed among 1422 participants in 2004-2005 through questionnaires, examination and performance tests. It comprised a wide range of medical and psychosocial dimensions, including a life course history of adverse events. Outcomes measures comprise subjective health, limitations in activities of daily living, mobility impairments, development of medical conditions or chronic health problems, falls, institutionalization, health services utilization, and death. Two additional random samples of 65-70 years old subjects will be surveyed in 2009 (birth year 1939-1943) and in 2014 (birth year 1944-1948). DISCUSSION: The Lc65+ study focuses on the sequence "Determinants --&gt; Components --&gt; Consequences" of frailty. It currently provides information on health in the youngest old and will allow comparisons to be made between the profiles of aging individuals born before, during and at the end of the Second World War

Validation of a contemporary prostate cancer grading system using prostate cancer death as outcome

BACKGROUND: Gleason scoring (GS) has major deficiencies and a novel system of five grade groups (GS⩽6; 3+4; 4+3; 8; ⩾9) has been recently agreed and included in the WHO 2016 classification. Although verified in radical prostatectomies using PSA relapse for outcome, it has not been validated using prostate cancer death as an outcome in biopsy series. There is debate whether an ‘overall' or ‘worst' GS in biopsies series should be used. METHODS: Nine hundred and eighty-eight prostate cancer biopsy cases were identified between 1990 and 2003, and treated conservatively. Diagnosis and grade was assigned to each core as well as an overall grade. Follow-up for prostate cancer death was until 31 December 2012. A log-rank test assessed univariable differences between the five grade groups based on overall and worst grade seen, and using univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards. Regression was used to quantify differences in outcome. RESULTS: Using both ‘worst' and ‘overall' GS yielded highly significant results on univariate and multivariate analysis with overall GS slightly but insignificantly outperforming worst GS. There was a strong correlation with the five grade groups and prostate cancer death. CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest conservatively treated prostate cancer cohort with long-term follow-up and contemporary assessment of grade. It validates the formation of five grade groups and suggests that the ‘worst' grade is a valid prognostic measure

The genomes of two key bumblebee species with primitive eusocial organization

Background: The shift from solitary to social behavior is one of the major evolutionary transitions. Primitively eusocial bumblebees are uniquely placed to illuminate the evolution of highly eusocial insect societies. Bumblebees are also invaluable natural and agricultural pollinators, and there is widespread concern over recent population declines in some species. High-quality genomic data will inform key aspects of bumblebee biology, including susceptibility to implicated population viability threats. Results: We report the high quality draft genome sequences of Bombus terrestris and Bombus impatiens, two ecologically dominant bumblebees and widely utilized study species. Comparing these new genomes to those of the highly eusocial honeybee Apis mellifera and other Hymenoptera, we identify deeply conserved similarities, as well as novelties key to the biology of these organisms. Some honeybee genome features thought to underpin advanced eusociality are also present in bumblebees, indicating an earlier evolution in the bee lineage. Xenobiotic detoxification and immune genes are similarly depauperate in bumblebees and honeybees, and multiple categories of genes linked to social organization, including development and behavior, show high conservation. Key differences identified include a bias in bumblebee chemoreception towards gustation from olfaction, and striking differences in microRNAs, potentially responsible for gene regulation underlying social and other traits. Conclusions: These two bumblebee genomes provide a foundation for post-genomic research on these key pollinators and insect societies. Overall, gene repertoires suggest that the route to advanced eusociality in bees was mediated by many small changes in many genes and processes, and not by notable expansion or depauperation