Planning with Information-Processing Constraints and Model Uncertainty in Markov Decision Processes

Information-theoretic principles for learning and acting have been proposed to solve particular classes of Markov Decision Problems. Mathematically, such approaches are governed by a variational free energy principle and allow solving MDP planning problems with information-processing constraints expressed in terms of a Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to a reference distribution. Here we consider a generalization of such MDP planners by taking model uncertainty into account. As model uncertainty can also be formalized as an information-processing constraint, we can derive a unified solution from a single generalized variational principle. We provide a generalized value iteration scheme together with a convergence proof. As limit cases, this generalized scheme includes standard value iteration with a known model, Bayesian MDP planning, and robust planning. We demonstrate the benefits of this approach in a grid world simulation.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figure

A review of elliptical and disc galaxy structure, and modern scaling laws

A century ago, in 1911 and 1913, Plummer and then Reynolds introduced their models to describe the radial distribution of stars in `nebulae'. This article reviews the progress since then, providing both an historical perspective and a contemporary review of the stellar structure of bulges, discs and elliptical galaxies. The quantification of galaxy nuclei, such as central mass deficits and excess nuclear light, plus the structure of dark matter halos and cD galaxy envelopes, are discussed. Issues pertaining to spiral galaxies including dust, bulge-to-disc ratios, bulgeless galaxies, bars and the identification of pseudobulges are also reviewed. An array of modern scaling relations involving sizes, luminosities, surface brightnesses and stellar concentrations are presented, many of which are shown to be curved. These 'redshift zero' relations not only quantify the behavior and nature of galaxies in the Universe today, but are the modern benchmark for evolutionary studies of galaxies, whether based on observations, N-body-simulations or semi-analytical modelling. For example, it is shown that some of the recently discovered compact elliptical galaxies at 1.5 < z < 2.5 may be the bulges of modern disc galaxies.Comment: Condensed version (due to Contract) of an invited review article to appear in "Planets, Stars and Stellar Systems"(www.springer.com/astronomy/book/978-90-481-8818-5). 500+ references incl. many somewhat forgotten, pioneer papers. Original submission to Springer: 07-June-201

Addressing disparities in maternal health care in Pakistan: gender, class and exclusion

Background: After more than two decades of the Safe Motherhood Initiative and Millennium Development Goals aimed at reducing maternal mortality, women continue to die in childbirth at unacceptably high rates in Pakistan. While an extensive literature describes various programmatic strategies, it neglects the rigorous analysis of the reasons these strategies have been unsuccessful, especially for women living at the economic and social margins of society. A critical gap in current knowledge is a detailed understanding of the root causes of disparities in maternal health care, and in particular, how gender and class influence policy formulation and the design and delivery of maternal health care services. Taking Pakistan as a case study, this research builds upon two distinct yet interlinked conceptual approaches to understanding the phenomenon of inequity in access to maternal health care: social exclusion and health systems as social institutions. Methods/Design: This four year project consists of two interrelated modules that focus on two distinct groups of participants: (1) poor, disadvantaged women and men and (2) policy makers, program managers and health service providers. Module one will employ critical ethnography to understand the key axes of social exclusion as related to gender, class and zaat and how they affect women’s experiences of using maternal health care. Through health care setting observations, interviews and document review, Module two will assess policy design and delivery of maternal health services. Discussion: This research will provide theoretical advances to enhance understanding of the power dynamics of gender and class that may underlie poor women’s marginalization from health care systems in Pakistan. It will also provide empirical evidence to support formulation of maternal health care policies and health care system practices aimed at reducing disparities in maternal health care in Pakistan. Lastly, it will enhance inter-disciplinary research capacity in the emerging field of social exclusion and maternal health and help reduce social inequities and achieve the Millennium Development Goal No. 5

Understanding missed opportunities for more timely diagnosis of cancer in symptomatic patients after presentation.

The diagnosis of cancer is a complex, multi-step process. In this paper, we highlight factors involved in missed opportunities to diagnose cancer more promptly in symptomatic patients and discuss responsible mechanisms and potential strategies to shorten intervals from presentation to diagnosis. Missed opportunities are instances in which post-hoc judgement indicates that alternative decisions or actions could have led to more timely diagnosis. They can occur in any of the three phases of the diagnostic process (initial diagnostic assessment; diagnostic test performance and interpretation; and diagnostic follow-up and coordination) and can involve patient, doctor/care team, and health-care system factors, often in combination. In this perspective article, we consider epidemiological 'signals' suggestive of missed opportunities and draw on evidence from retrospective case reviews of cancer patient cohorts to summarise factors that contribute to missed opportunities. Multi-disciplinary research targeting such factors is important to shorten diagnostic intervals post presentation. Insights from the fields of organisational and cognitive psychology, human factors science and informatics can be extremely valuable in this emerging research agenda. We provide a conceptual foundation for the development of future interventions to minimise the occurrence of missed opportunities in cancer diagnosis, enriching current approaches that chiefly focus on clinical decision support or on widening access to investigations.We acknowledge the helpful and incisive comments by Dr Rikke Sand Andersen (Aarhus University, Denmark) in conceptualising this piece and in drafts of the manuscript. The work is independent research supported by different funding schemes. GL was supported by a Post-Doctoral Fellowship by the National Institute for Health Research (PDF-2011-04-047) until the end of 2014 and by a Cancer Research UK Clinician Scientist Fellowship award (A18180) from 2015. HS is supported by the VA Health Services Research and Development Service (CRE 12-033; Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers USA 14-274), the VA National Center for Patient Safety, the Agency for Health Care Research and Quality (R01HS022087) and in part by the Houston VA HSR&D Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness and Safety (CIN 13–413). PV was supported by CaP, funded by The Danish Cancer Society and the Novo Nordisk Foundation.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared at http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2015.4

Early respiratory morbidity in a multicultural birth cohort: the Generation R Study

Ethnic disparities in the prevalence of asthma symptoms in children have been described. We evaluated to what extent the association between ethnic background and respiratory symptoms during the first 2 years of life could be explained by the mediating effect of risk factors for respiratory morbidity. The Generation R Study is a multiethnic, population-based birth cohort study. Pre and postnatal risk factors for respiratory morbidity were prospectively assessed by questionnaires. Information about ethnicity was available for 5,684 infants. The associations between ethnic background and lower respiratory symptoms at 12 and 24 months were evaluated with log-binomial regression models. Relative risks and 95 % confidence intervals (RR [95 % CI]) were computed for Cape Verdean, Moroccan, Antillean, Surinamese and Turkish ethnicity with Dutch ethnicity as the reference category. We found an increased risk of lower respiratory symptoms at 24 months in Antillean infants (1.32 [95 % CI 1.12–1.57]) that was mediated by early postnatal exposures (pets keeping, siblings, breastfeeding, daycare attendance, smoke exposure). Turkish infants also had an increased risk of lower respiratory symptoms at 12 and 24 months (1.14 [95 % CI 1.02–1.27] and 1.21 [95 % CI 1.07–1.38], respectively), partly explained by previous morbidity (eczema, infections and upper respiratory symptoms). There were no differences for Cape Verdean, Moroccan or Surinamese, as compared to Dutch infants. Hence, ethnic background was associated with respiratory symptoms during the first 2 years of life and this association was largely explained by mediating effects of known pre and postnatal risk factors for respiratory morbidity

Effect of the H1N1 Influenza Pandemic on the Incidence of Epidemic Keratoconjunctivitis and on Hygiene Behavior: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background: EKC is transmitted chiefly by direct hand contact. It is suspected that the 2009/2010 influenza pandemic influenced hand washing. This study aims to examine the relationship between the 2009/2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic and hygiene behavior. Methods: We compared the EKC prevalence trends before, during and after the 2009/2010 influenza pandemic by using a t-test comparison of EKC sentinel surveillance. Results: During the pre-pandemic period, the incidence of EKC increased from the 21st to the 44th week each year. However, during the pandemic period in 2009, there was no epidemic peak. In the post-pandemic period, the epidemic curve was similar to that in the pre-pandemic period. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, the total number of EKC patients during the pandemic period showed a decrease of 44.9 % (t value = 27.23, p = 0.002). Comparing the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods by age group, we found there to be a significant decrease in the number of EKC patients for all age groups (24.12#t value#27.23, all P,0.05). This finding was most evident in the teenage group (62%) compared to the other age groups (decreases of 29 to 44%). Conclusions: A continuing effort should be made to educate the public on basic infection prevention behaviors in th

Profiling quality of care: Is there a role for peer review?

BACKGROUND: We sought to develop a more reliable structured implicit chart review instrument for use in assessing the quality of care for chronic disease and to examine if ratings are more reliable for conditions in which the evidence base for practice is more developed. METHODS: We conducted a reliability study in a cohort with patient records including both outpatient and inpatient care as the objects of measurement. We developed a structured implicit review instrument to assess the quality of care over one year of treatment. 12 reviewers conducted a total of 496 reviews of 70 patient records selected from 26 VA clinical sites in two regions of the country. Each patient had between one and four conditions specified as having a highly developed evidence base (diabetes and hypertension) or a less developed evidence base (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or a collection of acute conditions). Multilevel analysis that accounts for the nested and cross-classified structure of the data was used to estimate the signal and noise components of the measurement of quality and the reliability of implicit review. RESULTS: For COPD and a collection of acute conditions the reliability of a single physician review was quite low (intra-class correlation = 0.16–0.26) but comparable to most previously published estimates for the use of this method in inpatient settings. However, for diabetes and hypertension the reliability is significantly higher at 0.46. The higher reliability is a result of the reviewers collectively being able to distinguish more differences in the quality of care between patients (p < 0.007) and not due to less random noise or individual reviewer bias in the measurement. For these conditions the level of true quality (i.e. the rating of quality of care that would result from the full population of physician reviewers reviewing a record) varied from poor to good across patients. CONCLUSIONS: For conditions with a well-developed quality of care evidence base, such as hypertension and diabetes, a single structured implicit review to assess the quality of care over a period of time is moderately reliable. This method could be a reasonable complement or alternative to explicit indicator approaches for assessing and comparing quality of care. Structured implicit review, like explicit quality measures, must be used more cautiously for illnesses for which the evidence base is less well developed, such as COPD and acute, short-course illnesses

Prevalence of overweight in children and adolescents with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and autism spectrum disorders: a chart review

BACKGROUND: The condition of obesity has become a significant public health problem in the United States. In children and adolescents, the prevalence of overweight has tripled in the last 20 years, with approximately 16.0% of children ages 6–19, and 10.3% of 2–5 year olds being considered overweight. Considerable research is underway to understand obesity in the general pediatric population, however little research is available on the prevalence of obesity in children with developmental disorders. The purpose of our study was to determine the prevalence of overweight among a clinical population of children diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and autism spectrum disorders (ASD). METHODS: Retrospective chart review of 140 charts of children ages 3–18 years seen between 1992 and 2003 at a tertiary care clinic that specializes in the evaluation and treatment of children with developmental, behavioral, and cognitive disorders. Diagnostic, medical, and demographic information was extracted from the charts. Primary diagnoses of either ADHD or ASD were recorded, as was information on race/ethnicity, age, gender, height, and weight. Information was also collected on medications that the child was taking. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated from measures of height and weight recorded in the child's chart. The Center for Disease Control's BMI growth reference was used to determine an age- and gender-specific BMI z-score for the children. RESULTS: The prevalence of at-risk-for-overweight (BMI >85th%ile) and overweight (BMI > 95th%ile) was 29% and 17.3% respectively in children with ADHD. Although the prevalence appeared highest in the 2–5 year old group (42.9%ile), differences among age groups were not statistically significant. Prevalence did not differ between boys and girls or across age groups (all p > 0.05). For children with ASD, the overall prevalence of at-risk-for-overweight was 35.7% and prevalence of overweight was 19%. CONCLUSION: When compared to an age-matched reference population (NHANES 1999–2002), our estimates indicate that children with ADHD and with ASD have a prevalence of overweight that is similar to children in the general population

Two Brothers with Skewed Thiopurine Metabolism in Ulcerative Colitis Treated Successfully with Allopurinol and Mercaptopurine Dose Reduction

Thiopurine therapy effectively maintains remission in inflammatory bowel disease. However, many patients are unable to achieve optimum benefits from azathioprine or 6-mercaptopurine because of undesirable metabolism related to high thiopurine methyltransferase (TPMT) activity characterized by hepatic transaminitis secondary to increased 6-methylmercaptopurine (6-MMP) production and reduced levels of therapeutic 6-thioguanine nucleotide (6-TGN). Allopurinol can optimize this skewed metabolism. We discuss two brothers who were both diagnosed with ulcerative colitis (UC). Their disease remained active despite oral and topical mesalamines. Steroids followed by 6-mercaptopurine (MP) were unsuccessfully introduced for both patients and both were found to have high 6-MMP and low 6-TGN levels, despite normal TMPT enzyme activity, accompanied by transaminitis. Allopurinol was introduced in combination with MP dose reduction. For both brothers addition of allopurinol was associated with successful remission and optimized MP metabolites. These siblings with active UC illustrate that skewed thiopurine metabolism may occur despite normal TPMT enzyme activity and can lead to adverse events in the absence of disease control. We confirm previous data showing that addition of allopurinol can reverse this skewed metabolism, and reduce both hepatotoxicity and disease activity, but we now also introduce the concept of a family history of preferential MP metabolism as a clue to effective management for other family members