The Macroeconomic Impacts of a Universal Basic Income : An Application to Scotland

UBI is defined as a payment made to all citizens in a region/ nation that is unconditional, permanent and substantial. We explore the macroeconomic consequences of such a UBI proposal for a regional economy, introduced on a fiscally neutral basis. We use Scotland, a country where the First Minister has indicated her support for the principle behind the idea, to illustrate the application of our analytical approach. The implementation of such a UBI at scale represents a major societal shift that involves substantial rises in taxation as well as in payments. Much of the existing empirical evidence relates to schemes that are small and in which the beneficiaries bear none of the costs, so its applicability here is questionable. Our approach combines microsimulation, to identify the immediate impact of the UBI on the tax/benefit system and distribution of income, with macroeconomic modelling to identify and analyse the wider economic impact of potential behavioural responses. The macroeconomic impact of the UBI depends critically on workers’ and potential migrants’ behavioural responses to the increase in taxation as well as to increased benefits. However, it seems clear that any positive stimulus to productivity as a consequence, for example, of reduced precarity and increased training would need to be substantial to offset any adverse impact on the scale of economic activity, unless policymakers succeed in securing a social contract that dampens or eliminates workers’ pressure for higher wages in response to a reduction in take home pay

Synchronization and partial synchronization of linear maps

We study synchronization of low-dimensional ($d=2,3,4$) chaotic piecewise linear maps. For Bernoulli maps we find Lyapunov exponents and locate the synchronization transition, that numerically is found to be discontinuous (despite continuously vanishing Lyapunov exponent(s)). For tent maps, a limit of stability of the synchronized state is used to locate the synchronization transition that numerically is found to be continuous. For nonidentical tent maps at the partial synchronization transition, the probability distribution of the synchronization error is shown to develop highly singular behavior. We suggest that for nonidentical Bernoulli maps (and perhaps some other discontinuous maps) partial synchronization is merely a smooth crossover rather than a well defined transition. More subtle analysis in the $d=4$ case locates the point where the synchronized state becomes stable. In some cases, however, a riddled basin attractor appears, and synchronized and chaotic behaviors coexist. We also suggest that similar riddling of a basin of attractor might take place in some extended systems where it is known as stable chaos.Comment: 7 pages, eps figures include

ProKnow: Process Knowledge for Safety Constrained and Explainable Question Generation for Mental Health Diagnostic Assistance

Current Virtual Mental Health Assistants (VMHAs) provide counseling and suggestive care. They refrain from patient diagnostic assistance because of a lack of training on safety-constrained and specialized clinical process knowledge (Pro-Know). In this work, we define ProKnow as an ordered set of information that maps to evidence-based guidelines or categories of conceptual understanding to experts in a domain. We also introduce a new dataset of diagnostic conversations guided by safety constraints and ProKnow that healthcare professionals use (ProKnow-data). We develop a method for natural language question generation (NLG) that collects diagnostic information from the patient interactively (ProKnow-algo). We demonstrate the limitations of using state-of-the-art large-scale language models (LMs) on this dataset. ProKnow-algo models the process knowledge through explicitly modeling safety, knowledge capture, and explainability. LMs with ProKnow-algo generated 89% safer questions in the depression and anxiety domain. Further, without ProKnow-algo generations question did not adhere to clinical process knowledge in ProKnow-data. In comparison, ProKnow-algo-based generations yield a 96% reduction in averaged squared rank error. The Explainability of the generated question is assessed by computing similarity with concepts in depression and anxiety knowledge bases. Overall, irrespective of the type of LMs, ProKnow-algo achieved an averaged 82% improvement over simple pre-trained LMs on safety, explainability, and process-guided question generation. We qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate the efficacy of ProKnow-algo by introducing three new evaluation metrics for safety, explainability, and process knowledge-adherence. For reproducibility, we will make ProKnow-data and the code repository of ProKnow-algo publicly available upon acceptance

Modelling the Economic Impact of a Citizen’s Basic Income in Scotland

The report, co-authored by researchers from the Fraser of Allander Institute, Manchester Metropolitan University and IPPR Scotland, looks at the costs and benefits of implementing a citizen’s basic income (CBI) in Scotland and the channels through which it may impact upon the economy

Arrhythmogenesis in Fabry Disease

Purpose of Review: Fabry Disease (FD) is a rare lysosomal storage disorder characterised by multiorgan accumulation of glycosphingolipid due to deficiency in the enzyme α-galactosidase A. Cardiac sphingolipid accumulation triggers various types of arrhythmias, predominantly ventricular arrhythmia, bradyarrhythmia, and atrial fibrillation. Arrhythmia is likely the primary contributor to FD mortality with sudden cardiac death, the most frequent cardiac mode of death. Traditionally FD was seen as a storage cardiomyopathy triggering left ventricular hypertrophy, diastolic dysfunction, and ultimately, systolic dysfunction in advanced disease. The purpose of this review is to outline the current evidence exploring novel mechanisms underlying the arrhythmia substrate. Recent Findings: There is growing evidence that FD cardiomyopathy is a primary arrhythmic disease with each stage of cardiomyopathy (accumulation, hypertrophy, inflammation, and fibrosis) contributing to the arrhythmia substrate via various intracellular, extracellular, and environmental mechanisms. It is therefore important to understand how these mechanisms contribute to an individual’s risk of arrhythmia in FD. Summary: In this review, we outline the epidemiology of arrhythmia, pathophysiology of arrhythmogenesis, risk stratification, and cardiac therapy in FD. We explore how advances in conventional cardiac investigations performed in FD patients including 12-lead electrocardiography, transthoracic echocardiography, and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging have enabled early detection of pro-arrhythmic substrate. This has allowed for appropriate risk stratification of FD patients. This paves the way for future work exploring the development of therapeutic initiatives and risk prediction models to reduce the burden of arrhythmia.<br/

Systematic review of the incidence and clinical risk predictors of atrial fibrillation and permanent pacemaker implantation for bradycardia in Fabry disease

Introduction Fabry disease (FD) is an X-linked lysosomal storage disorder caused by enzyme deficiency, leading to glycosphingolipid accumulation. Cardiac accumulation triggers local tissue injury, electrical instability and arrhythmia. Bradyarrhythmia and atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence are reported in up to 16% and 13%, respectively.Objective We conducted a systematic review evaluating AF burden and bradycardia requiring permanent pacemaker (PPM) implantation and report any predictive risk factors identified.Methods We conducted a literature search on studies in adults with FD published from inception to July 2019. Study outcomes included AF or bradycardia requiring therapy. Databases included Embase, Medline, PubMed, Web of Science, CINAHL and Cochrane. The Risk of Bias Agreement tool for Non-Randomised Studies (RoBANS) was utilised to assess bias across key areas.Results 11 studies were included, eight providing data on AF incidence or PPM implantation. Weighted estimate of event rates for AF were 12.2% and 10% for PPM. Age was associated with AF (OR 1.05–1.20 per 1-year increase in age) and a risk factor for PPM implantation (composite OR 1.03). Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) was associated with AF and PPM implantation.Conclusion Evidence supporting AF and bradycardia requiring pacemaker implantation is limited to single-centre studies. Incidence is variable and choice of diagnostic modality plays a role in detection rate. Predictors for AF (age, LVH and atrial dilatation) and PPM (age, LVH and PR/QRS interval) were identified but strength of association was low. Incidence of AF and PPM implantation in FD are variably reported with arrhythmia burden likely much higher than previously thought.PROSPERO database CRD42019132045

Atomic layer deposition of Al-incorporated Zn(O,S) thin films with tunable electrical properties

Zinc oxysulfide, Zn(O,S), films grown by atomic layer deposition were incorporated with aluminum to adjust the carrier concentration. The electron carrier concentration increased up to one order of magnitude from 1019 to 1020 cm−3 with aluminum incorporation and sulfur content in the range of 0 ≤ S/(Zn+Al) ≤ 0.16. However, the carrier concentration decreased by five orders of magnitude from 1019 to 1014 cm−3 for S/(Zn+Al) = 0.34 and decreased even further when S/(Zn+Al) > 0.34. Such tunable electrical properties are potentially useful for graded buffer layers in thin-film photovoltaic applications.Chemistry and Chemical Biolog