Parametric uncertainty in complex environmental models: a cheap emulation approach for models with high-dimensional output

In order to understand underlying processes governing environmental and physical processes, and predict future outcomes, a complex computer model is frequently required to simulate these dynamics. However there is inevitably uncertainty related to the exact parametric form or the values of such parameters to be used when developing these simulators, with \emph{ranges} of plausible values prevalent in the literature. Systematic errors introduced by failing to account for these uncertainties have the potential to have a large effect on resulting estimates in unknown quantities of interest. Due to the complexity of these types of models, it is often unfeasible to run large numbers of training runs that are usually required for full statistical emulators of the environmental processes. We therefore present a method for accounting for uncertainties in complex environmental simulators without the need for very large numbers of training runs and illustrate the method through an application to the Met Office's atmospheric transport model NAME. We conclude that there are two principle parameters that are linked with variability in NAME outputs, namely the free tropospheric turbulence parameter and particle release height. Our results suggest the former should be significantly larger than is currently implemented as a default in NAME, whilst changes in the latter most likely stem from inconsistencies between the model specified ground height at the observation locations and the true height at this location. Estimated discrepancies from independent data are consistent with the discrepancy between modelled and true ground height

Attributing and Referencing (Research) Software: Best Practices and Outlook from Inria

Software is a fundamental pillar of modern scientiic research, not only in computer science, but actually across all elds and disciplines. However, there is a lack of adequate means to cite and reference software, for many reasons. An obvious rst reason is software authorship, which can range from a single developer to a whole team, and can even vary in time. The panorama is even more complex than that, because many roles can be involved in software development: software architect, coder, debugger, tester, team manager, and so on. Arguably, the researchers who have invented the key algorithms underlying the software can also claim a part of the authorship. And there are many other reasons that make this issue complex. We provide in this paper a contribution to the ongoing eeorts to develop proper guidelines and recommendations for software citation, building upon the internal experience of Inria, the French research institute for digital sciences. As a central contribution, we make three key recommendations. (1) We propose a richer taxonomy for software contributions with a qualitative scale. (2) We claim that it is essential to put the human at the heart of the evaluation. And (3) we propose to distinguish citation from reference

Community based aquaculture in the western Indian Ocean: Challenges and opportunities for developing sustainable coastal livelihoods

The small-fisheries social-ecological system in the western Indian Ocean (WIO) represents a typical social-ecological trap setting where very poor natural resources dependent coastal communities face local and global threats and engage in unsustainable practices of exploiting limited resources. Community-based aquaculture (CBA) has been implemented as an important alternative or supplementary income generating activity for minimizing the overdependence on marine natural resources and promoting biodiversity conservation. Despite its proliferation throughout the WIO region in recent decades, little is known about the degree to which CBA activities have contributed to achieving the objectives of breaking the cycle of poverty and environmental degradation and promoting community development and biodiversity conservation. In order to improve understanding of common challenges and to generate recommendations for best practice, we assessed the most common CBA activities practiced in the region through literature review and workshop discussion involving practitioners and key stakeholders. Findings indicated that despite favorable environmental conditions for various CBA practices, the sector remains underdeveloped, with few activities delivering the intended benefits for coastal livelihoods or conservation. Constraints included a shortage of seed and feed supplies, low investment, limited technical capacity and skills, insufficient political support, and lack of a clear strategy for aquaculture development. These are compounded by a lack of engagement of local stakeholders, with decision making often dominated by donors, development agencies, and private sector partners. Many of the region’s CBA projects are designed along unrealistically short time frames, driven by donors rather than entrepreneurs, and so are unable to achieve financial sustainability, which limits the opportunity for capacity building and longer-term development. There is little or no monitoring on ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Except for a few isolated cases, links between CBA and marine conservation outcomes have rarely been demonstrated. Realizing the potential of CBA in contributing toward food security in the WIO will necessitate concerted investment and capacity strengthening to overcome these systemic challenges in the sector. Lessons herein offer managers, scientists, and policy advisors guidance on addressing the challenges faced in building strategic development initiatives around aquaculture in developing countries

Design for a Darwinian Brain: Part 1. Philosophy and Neuroscience

Physical symbol systems are needed for open-ended cognition. A good way to understand physical symbol systems is by comparison of thought to chemistry. Both have systematicity, productivity and compositionality. The state of the art in cognitive architectures for open-ended cognition is critically assessed. I conclude that a cognitive architecture that evolves symbol structures in the brain is a promising candidate to explain open-ended cognition. Part 2 of the paper presents such a cognitive architecture.Comment: Darwinian Neurodynamics. Submitted as a two part paper to Living Machines 2013 Natural History Museum, Londo