Revisionist Economic History? Potential GDP in the United States

EconomicGrowth_Development_TechnicalChangeU.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has finally caught up with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates of potential GDP as of late 2017, even though the National Bureau of Economic Research dates the end of the Great Recession in 2009. This has been a widely recognized long slow recovery back to ‘full employment.’ What is less widely recognized is that this catch-up of actual GDP with potential GDP has occurred as much from CBO downward revisions of its estimates of potential GDP as from growth in actual GDP. Real time projections of potential and actual GDP given by the Congressional Budget Office to policymakers widely underestimated the severity of the recession and overestimated the U.S. economy’s ability to recover. These errors have real-time implications: policymakers used these estimates to assess the level of stimulus needed to boost the economy. This report examines CBO estimates of potential GDP, including estimates of historical values and forecasts of future values, and documents how the CBO continued to revise downward its potential GDP estimates for years after the end of the Great Recession. These CBO revisions were changes in both forecasts of future potential GDP values and estimates of past values of potential GDP. The authors also examine the behavior of factors contributing to the CBO revisions, including changes in the labor force participation rate

"Forecasting" Deficit Spending in the United States: A Look at Projections from the Congressional Budget Office

EconomicGrowth_Development_TechnicalChangeThe Congressional Budget Office, or CBO, is the non-partisan government agency that provides projections of costs and revenues to Congress and the public. CBO projections are conditional forecasts of underlying economic drivers including GDP, potential GDP, and demographic variables. The CBO deficit projections, published semi-annually in the report, “The Budget and Economic Outlook� are then used by legislators to provide a framework for considering the future path of deficits without changes in current law, and subject to CBO projections of economic activity. However, when current law is constantly changing, the CBO deficit projections can be strikingly at variance with actual deficits. This article examines the 10-year deficit projections of the Congressional Budget Office from 2000 to 2017 and compares them to subsequent actual levels of deficit spending. Findings show that CBO projections have sometimes significantly underestimated the level and path of deficits, while they have not over this period significantly overestimated the level and path of deficits. Legislators and the public should take into account that CBO projections are, in this sense, an optimistic projection of future events

Forage Monitoring Technology to Improve Risk Management Decision Making by Herders in the Gobi Region of Mongolia

In the period from 1999 to 2002, Mongolia experienced a series of droughts and severe winters that lowered livestock numbers by approximately 30% countrywide. In the Gobi region, livestock mortality reached 50% with many households losing entire herds (Siurua & Swift 2002). In March 2004, a program was initiated by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) through the Global Livestock Collaborative Research and Support Program (GLCRSP). The goal of this program is to develop forage monitoring technologies that provide early warning of drought and winter disaster to improve livestock herder decision making in the Gobi region. The program has two major objectives: (1) to develop a regional forage monitoring system that provides near-real time spatial and temporal assessment of current and forecasted forage conditions, and (2) to develop a communication infrastructure that provides herders with data on forage conditions to assist them in making timely and specific management decisions

Common GBA Variants in Parkinson\u27s Disease and Lewy Body Dementia Patients

Parkinson’s disease (PD) and Lewy Body Dementias (LBD) are two distinct synucleinopathies with a great amount of symptomatic and genetic overlap. This overlap can often lead to misdiagnosis. Misdiagnosis can result in improper therapy and therefore a poorer prognosis. LBD is a neuropath diagnosis with subcategories, but for the purpose of this project we discuss LBD as a whole. GBA is a gene common to both diseases with different effect sizes in each, although increasing severity of disease for both. Common is defined as a presence greater than 1% in healthy controls. GBA is found in 2-37% of Parkinson cases worldwide, with Ashkenazi Jews having the highest frequency of mutation. Our PD cohort is a clinical series, whereas our LBD cohort is a pathological series. A clinical LBD series can skew results as they are often misdiagnosed, so there is more certainty behind a pathological series. Here, we screened ~200 samples for E365K and T408M, two common GBA variants. We have reviewed the clinical implications of being a GBA carrier for both diseases and have identified differences. We have genotyped ~1200 LBD samples for these two common variants. Now that we know GBA plays a role in each disease, we can better understand the mechanism of pathogenesis and can identify potential therapy targets for GBA carriers. These therapeutic targets could be a gateway to cures and therapies for an otherwise incurable condition

Adult-onset cerebello-brainstem dominant form of X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy presenting as multiple system atrophy: case report and literature review: Cerebello-brainstem dominant form of X-ALD

X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy (X-ALD) is the most common peroxisomal disorder and is caused by ABCD1 mutations. A cerebello-brainstem dominant form that mainly involves the cerebellum and brainstem is summarized in a review of the literature, with autopsy confirmed cases exceedingly rare. We report a 69-year-old white man who was diagnosed with this rare disorder and describe neuropathologic, ultrastructural and genetic analyses. He did not have adrenal insufficiency or a family history of X-ALD or Addison’s disease. His initial symptom was temporary loss of eyesight at age 34 years. His major symptoms were chronic and progressive gait disorder, weakness in his lower extremities, and spasticity, as well as autonomic failure and cerebellar ataxia suggesting possible multiple system atrophy (MSA). He also had seizures, hearing loss, and sensory disturbances. His brain MRI showed no obvious atrophy or significant white matter pathology in cerebrum, brainstem or cerebellum. He died at age 69 years with a diagnosis of multiple system atrophy. Microscopic analysis showed mild, patchy myelin rarefaction with perivascular clusters of PAS-positive, CD68-positive macrophages in the white matter most prominent in the cerebellum and occipital lobe, but also affecting optic tract and internal capsule. Electron microscopy of cerebellar white matter showed cleft-like trilamellar cytoplasmic inclusions in macrophages typical of X-ALD, which prompted genetic analysis that revealed a novel ABCD1 mutation, p.R163G. Given the relatively mild pathological findings and long disease duration, it is likely that the observed pathology was the result of a slow and indolent disease process. We described a patient who had sporadic cerebello-brainstem dominant form of X-ALD with long clinical course, mild pathological findings, and an ABCD1 p.R163G substitution. We also review a total of 34 cases of adult-onset cerebello-brainstem dominant form of X-ALD. Although rare, X-ALD should be considered in the differential diagnosis of MSA

In search of phylogenetic congruence between molecular and morphological data in bryozoans with extreme adult skeletal heteromorphy

peerreview_statement: The publishing and review policy for this title is described in its Aims & Scope. aims_and_scope_url: http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?show=aimsScope&journalCode=tsab20© Crown Copyright 2015. This document is the author's final accepted/submitted version of the journal article. You are advised to consult the publisher's version if you wish to cite from it