Spatial patterns of tree yield explained by endogenous forces through a correspondence between the Ising model and ecology.

Spatial patterning of periodic dynamics is a dramatic and ubiquitous ecological phenomenon arising in systems ranging from diseases to plants to mammals. The degree to which spatial correlations in cyclic dynamics are the result of endogenous factors related to local dynamics vs. exogenous forcing has been one of the central questions in ecology for nearly a century. With the goal of obtaining a robust explanation for correlations over space and time in dynamics that would apply to many systems, we base our analysis on the Ising model of statistical physics, which provides a fundamental mechanism of spatial patterning. We show, using 5 y of data on over 6,500 trees in a pistachio orchard, that annual nut production, in different years, exhibits both large-scale synchrony and self-similar, power-law decaying correlations consistent with the Ising model near criticality. Our approach demonstrates the possibility that short-range interactions can lead to long-range correlations over space and time of cyclic dynamics even in the presence of large environmental variability. We propose that root grafting could be the common mechanism leading to positive short-range interactions that explains the ubiquity of masting, correlated seed production over space through time, by trees

The ‘CSA Papers’: Call for Book Chapter Proposals

The World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), in collaboration with the CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) invites scientists and development actors to submit applications for publication of book chapter in an open-access book investigating obstacles to scaling up climate-smart agriculture (CSA), The CSA Papers

The CSA Papers: Critical investigations to support climate-smart agriculture development. An effort to analyze, publish, and present previously unreleased data on CSA

The CSA Papers aim to generate critical insights into five key areas of CSA based on unpublished scientific information. Contributors of Papers will participate in a writeshop, be provided honoraria, and be eligible for travel grants to showcase their work

Suitability of project M&E systems to support agricultural MRV: The case of the Kenya dairy NAMA

Several countries are developing nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) in the livestock sector. Compared to research on emission factors, much less attention has been paid to understanding systems for collecting activity data on change in livestock management practices and animal performance. This paper presents a framework for synthetic assessment of MRV systems based on UNFCCC criteria for credible MRV. The framework is applied to case studies of two existing monitoring and evaluation systems in Kenya’s dairy sector to investigate the extent to which these systems could be used as the basis for collection and reporting of activity data for a dairy sector NAMA in Kenya. Analysis of the case studies highlights three main findings: (i) codifying data collection, management procedures and roles is important for increasing transparency, while quality control and quality assurance systems play key roles in increasing confidence in data quality; (ii) milk yield is a key indicator used in estimating GHG emissions in the dairy sector, but further research is needed on potential sources of uncertainty and bias associated with different data collection methods; (iii) the involvement of multiple institutions in implementation of the sector- wide NAMA raises challenges related to the consistency and comparability between data collected by different institutions. Options for improvement in MRV practices will be determined to a large extent by the requirements of data users. These issues are not unique to Kenya’s dairy NAMA. Further assessment of the quality of activity data and the characteristics of credible MRV systems will support practical improvements in MRV for agricultural mitigation actions

Can the Great Green Wall deliver more than trees? A rapid review of the potential multidimensional impacts of trees in the Sahel

Key messagesThe Great Green Wall (GGW) is focused on land restoration through tree planting and natural regeneration across 8,000km of the Sahel.Impacts to-date include land restoration on 4m hectares of the official target zone and an additional 14m ha across the target region. USD 90m in revenue has also been generated.The GGW has the potential to contribute to global goals related to climate mitigation, ecological resilience, improved human health and wellbeing, and equity and empowerment.Ensuring and building upon the varied impacts of GGW activities will require specific attention to monitoring and evaluation approaches and activities

Reflections on monitoring and evaluating climate adaptation

Learning session on climate change adaptation metrics for smallholder agriculture, organized by BMGF and TN

Evidence for Resilient Agriculture (ERA): Who is it for?

Climate change impacts are expected to exceed the capacities of smallholder farmers to manage risks, in the absence of adaptations and transformations in the way the food is produced. Management practices and technologies are important building blocks of resilient agriculture. Local and national policies, climate-smart services and investments are built around how farms are managed. Access to robust information on which agricultural management options work where and at what costs enable program developers and implementers to unlock transformative solutions for the sector. Being able to understand expected shifts in production, livelihoods or environmental outcomes, farmers can adapt resource management strategies and be better prepared to manage risks

Foundations for common approaches to measure global adaptation actions in the agriculture sector: Highlights from an analysis of existing climate adaptation frameworks

"Climate adaptation has been on the back seat of the international policy agenda for many years; the Paris Agreement and relating Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) provide new momentum to frame adaptation as a global responsibility and to call for collective measurement approaches. n Decisions on potential global adaptation targets and measurements need to build on existing collections of frameworks, indicators and metrics that provide valuable learning opportunities, rather than reinventing processes. n Reviewing what national M&E systems already track in terms of adaptation may be a pertinent way to advance discussions on how the GGA can be translated into practice via bottom-up, country-driven approaches.