How often should we monitor for reliable detection of atrial fibrillation recurrence? Efficiency considerations and implications for study design

OBJECTIVE: Although atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence is unpredictable in terms of onset and duration, current intermittent rhythm monitoring (IRM) diagnostic modalities are short-termed and discontinuous. The aim of the present study was to investigate the necessary IRM frequency required to reliably detect recurrence of various AF recurrence patterns. METHODS: The rhythm histories of 647 patients (mean AF burden: 12±22% of monitored time; 687 patient-years) with implantable continuous monitoring devices were reconstructed and analyzed. With the use of computationally intensive simulation, we evaluated the necessary IRM frequency to reliably detect AF recurrence of various AF phenotypes using IRM of various durations. RESULTS: The IRM frequency required for reliable AF detection depends on the amount and temporal aggregation of the AF recurrence (p<0.0001) as well as the duration of the IRM (p<0.001). Reliable detection (>95% sensitivity) of AF recurrence required higher IRM frequencies (>12 24-hour; >6 7-day; >4 14-day; >3 30-day IRM per year; p<0.0001) than currently recommended. Lower IRM frequencies will under-detect AF recurrence and introduce significant bias in the evaluation of therapeutic interventions. More frequent but of shorter duration, IRMs (24-hour) are significantly more time effective (sensitivity per monitored time) than a fewer number of longer IRM durations (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Reliable AF recurrence detection requires higher IRM frequencies than currently recommended. Current IRM frequency recommendations will fail to diagnose a significant proportion of patients. Shorter duration but more frequent IRM strategies are significantly more efficient than longer IRM durations. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: Unique identifier: NCT00806689

Experiences of refugees and asylum seekers in general practice: a qualitative study

Background: There has been much debate regarding the refugee health situation in the UK. However most of the existing literature fails to take account of the opinions of refugees themselves. This study was established to determine the views of asylum seekers and refugees on their overall experiences in primary care and to suggest improvements to their care. Methods: Qualitative study of adult asylum seekers and refugees who had entered the UK in the last 10 years. The study was set in Barnet Refugee Walk in Service, London. 11 Semi structured interviews were conducted and analysed using framework analysis. Results: Access to GPs may be more difficult for failed asylum seekers and those without support from refugee agencies or family. There may be concerns amongst some in the refugee community regarding the access to and confidentiality of professional interpreters. Most participants stated their preference for GPs who offered advice rather than prescriptions. The stigma associated with refugee status in the UK may have led to some refugees altering their help seeking behaviour. Conclusion: The problem of poor access for those with inadequate support may be improved by better education and support for GPs in how to provide for refugees. Primary Care Trusts could also supply information to newly arrived refugees on how to access services. GPs should be aware that, in some situations, professional interpreters may not always be desired and that instead, it may be advisable to reach a consensus as to who should be used as an interpreter. A better doctor-patient experience resulting from improvements in access and communication may help to reduce the stigma associated with refugee status and lead to more appropriate help seeking behaviour. Given the small nature of our investigation, larger studies need to be conducted to confirm and to quantify these results

The science of clinical practice: disease diagnosis or patient prognosis? Evidence about "what is likely to happen" should shape clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis is the traditional basis for decision-making in clinical practice. Evidence is often lacking about future benefits and harms of these decisions for patients diagnosed with and without disease. We propose that a model of clinical practice focused on patient prognosis and predicting the likelihood of future outcomes may be more useful. DISCUSSION: Disease diagnosis can provide crucial information for clinical decisions that influence outcome in serious acute illness. However, the central role of diagnosis in clinical practice is challenged by evidence that it does not always benefit patients and that factors other than disease are important in determining patient outcome. The concept of disease as a dichotomous 'yes' or 'no' is challenged by the frequent use of diagnostic indicators with continuous distributions, such as blood sugar, which are better understood as contributing information about the probability of a patient's future outcome. Moreover, many illnesses, such as chronic fatigue, cannot usefully be labelled from a disease-diagnosis perspective. In such cases, a prognostic model provides an alternative framework for clinical practice that extends beyond disease and diagnosis and incorporates a wide range of information to predict future patient outcomes and to guide decisions to improve them. Such information embraces non-disease factors and genetic and other biomarkers which influence outcome. SUMMARY: Patient prognosis can provide the framework for modern clinical practice to integrate information from the expanding biological, social, and clinical database for more effective and efficient care

Atmospheric Ice‐Nucleating Particles in the Dusty Tropical Atlantic

Desert dust is one of the most important atmospheric ice-nucleating aerosol species around the globe. However, there have been very few measurements of ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations in dusty air close to desert sources. In this study we report the concentration of INPs in dust laden air over the tropical Atlantic within a few days' transport of one of the world's most important atmospheric sources of desert dust, the Sahara. These measurements were performed as part of the Ice in Clouds Experiment-Dust campaign based in Cape Verde, during August 2015. INP concentrations active in the immersion mode, determined using a droplet-on-filter technique, ranged from around 10² m⁻³ at -12°C to around 10⁵ m⁻³ at -23°C. There is about 2 orders of magnitude variability in INP concentration for a particular temperature, which is determined largely by the variability in atmospheric dust loading. These measurements were made at altitudes from 30 to 3,500 m in air containing a range of dust loadings. The ice active site density (n s ) for desert dust dominated aerosol derived from our measurements agrees with several laboratory-based parameterizations for ice nucleation by desert dust within 1 to 2 orders of magnitude. The small variability in n s values determined from our measurements (within about 1 order of magnitude) is striking given that the back trajectory analysis suggests that the sources of dust were geographically diverse. This is consistent with previous work, which indicates that desert dust's ice-nucleating activity is only weakly dependent on source

Evaluation of Cause of Deaths' Validity Using Outcome Measures from a Prospective, Population Based Cohort Study in Tehran, Iran

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity of cause of death stated in death certificates in Tehran using outcome measures of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS), an ongoing prospective cohort study. METHODS: The cohort was established in 1999 in a population of 15005 people, 3 years old and over, living in Tehran; 3551 individuals were added to this population three years later. As part of cohort's outcome measures, deaths occurring in the cohort are investigated by a panel of medical specialists (Cohort Outcome Panel--COP) and underlying cause of death is determined for each death. The cause of death assigned in a deceased's original death certificate was evaluated against the cause of death determined by COP and sensitivity and positive predictive values (PPV) were determined. In addition, determinants of assigning accurate underlying cause of death were determined using logistic regression model. RESULT: A total of 231 death certificates were evaluated. The original death certificates over reported deaths due to neoplasms and underreported death due to circulatory system and transport accidents. Neoplasms with sensitivity of 0.91 and PPV of 0.71 were the most valid category. The disease of circulatory system showed moderate degree of validity with sensitivity of 0.67 and PPV of 0.78. The result of logistic regression indicated if the death certificate is issued by a general practitioner, there is 2.3 (95% CI 1.1, 5.1) times chance of being misclassified compared with when it is issued by a specialist. If the deceased is more than 60 years, the chance of misclassification would be 2.5 times (95% CI of 1.1, 5.9) compared with when the deceased is less than 60 years

Spatiotemporal Correlations between Blood-Brain Barrier Permeability and Apparent Diffusion Coefficient in a Rat Model of Ischemic Stroke

Variations in apparent diffusion coefficient of water (ADC) and blood-brain barrier (BBB) permeability after ischemia have been suggested, though the correlation between ADC alterations and BBB opening remains to be studied. We hypothesized that there are correlations between the alteration of ADC and BBB permeability. Rats were subjected to 2 h of transient middle cerebral artery occlusion and studied at 3 and 48 h of reperfusion, which are crucial times of BBB opening. BBB permeability and ADC values were measured by dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI and diffusion-weighted imaging, respectively. Temporal and spatial analyses of the evolution of BBB permeability and ADC alteration in cortical and subcortical regions were conducted along with the correlation between ADC and BBB permeability data. We found significant increases in BBB leakage and reduction in ADC values between 3 and 48 h of reperfusion. We identified three MR tissue signature models: high Ki and low ADC, high Ki and normal ADC, and normal Ki and low ADC. Over time, areas with normal Ki and low ADC transformed into areas with high Ki. We observed a pattern of lesion evolution where the extent of initial ischemic injury reflected by ADC abnormalities determines vascular integrity. Our results suggest that regions with vasogenic edema alone are not likely to develop low ADC by 48 h and may undergo recovery

Frequency, course and correlates of alcohol use from adolescence to young adulthood in a Swiss community survey

BACKGROUND: Few studies have analyzed the frequency of alcohol use across time from adolescence to young adulthood and its outcome in young adulthood. A Swiss longitudinal multilevel assessment project using various measures of psychopathology and psychosocial variables allowed for the study of the frequency and correlates of alcohol use so that this developmental trajectory may be better understood. METHOD: Alcohol use was studied by a questionnaire in a cohort of N = 593 subjects who had been assessed at three times between adolescence and young adulthood within the Zurich Psychology and Psychopathology Study (ZAPPS). Other assessment included questionnaire data measuring emotional and behavioural problems, life events, coping style, self-related cognitions, perceived parenting style and school environment, and size and efficiency of the social network. RESULTS: The increase of alcohol use from early adolescence to young adulthood showed only a few sex-specific differences in terms of the amount of alcohol consumption and the motives to drink. In late adolescence and young adulthood, males had a higher amount of alcohol consumption and were more frequently looking for drunkenness and feeling high. Males also experienced more negative consequences of alcohol use. A subgroup of heavy or problem drinkers showed a large range of emotional and behavioural problems and further indicators of impaired psychosocial functioning both in late adolescence and young adulthood. CONCLUSION: This Swiss community survey documents that alcohol use is problematic in a sizeable proportion of youth and goes hand in hand with a large number of psychosocial problems

Measurement of the branching fraction and CP content for the decay B(0) -> D(*+)D(*-)

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APS.We report a measurement of the branching fraction of the decay B0→D*+D*- and of the CP-odd component of its final state using the BABAR detector. With data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.4  fb-1 collected at the Υ(4S) resonance during 1999–2000, we have reconstructed 38 candidate signal events in the mode B0→D*+D*- with an estimated background of 6.2±0.5 events. From these events, we determine the branching fraction to be B(B0→D*+D*-)=[8.3±1.6(stat)±1.2(syst)]×10-4. The measured CP-odd fraction of the final state is 0.22±0.18(stat)±0.03(syst).This work is supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the A.P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation