Projected hydrologic changes over the north of the Iberian Peninsula using a Euro-CORDEX multi-model ensemble

This study explores the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the headwater areas of the Duero River Basin, the largest basin of the Iberian Peninsula. To this end, an ensemble of 18 Euro-CORDEX model experiments was gathered for 1975-2005 and 2021-2100, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and were used as the meteorological forcings of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) during the hydrological modelling exercise. The projected hydrologic changes for the future period were analyzed at annual and seasonal scales using several evaluation metrics, such as the delta changes of the atmospheric and land variables, the runoff and evapotranspiration ratios of the overall water balance, the snowmelt contribution to the total streamflow and the centroid position for the daily hydrograph of the average hydrologic year. Annual streamflow reductions of up to 40% were attained in various parts of the basin for 2071-2100 under RCP8.5 scenario, and resulted from the precipitation decreases in the southern subwatersheds and the combined effect of the precipitation decreases and evapotranspiration increases in the north. The runoff and the evapotranspiration ratios evinced a tendency towards an evaporative regime in the north part of the basin and a strengthening of the evaporative response in the south. Seasonal streamflow changes were mostly negative and dependent on the season considered, with greater detriments in spring and summer, and less intense ones in autumn and winter. The snowmelt contribution to the total streamflow was strongly diminished with decreases reaching -80% in autumn and spring, thus pointing to a change in the snow regime for the Duero mountains. Finally, the annual and seasonal changes of the centroid position accounted for the shape changes of the hydrograph, constituting a measure of seasonality and reflecting high correlations degrees with the streamflow delta changes

The role of the surface evapotranspiration in regional climate modelling: Evaluation and near-term future changes

Surface evapotranspiration (SFCEVP) plays an essential role in the climate, being the link between hydrological and energy cycles. Therefore, how it is approximated and its implication in the regional climate are important aspects to understand the effects of climate change, especially in transitional zones such as the Iberian Peninsula (IP). This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of the SFCEVP using a regional climate model (RCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To this purpose, a set of WRF simulations were completed using different driving data. On the first hand, a recent present (1980–2017) simulation driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis was carried out to evaluate the suitability of the RCM performance. On the other hand, two global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 initiative, the CESM1 and the MPI-ESM-LR, were used as driving data to evaluate the GCM-RCM coupling, which is essential to climate change applications. Finally, projected changes were also investigated for a near-term future (2021–2050) paradigm. In general, the results pointed out the WRF model as a valuable tool to study the spatiotemporal patterns of the SFCEVP in the IP, showing an overall and acceptable ability at different spatial and temporal scales. Concerning projections, the results indicate that the IP is likely to undergo significant changes in the SFCEVP in the near future. These changes will be more apparent over the southernmost, and particularly during spring and summer, being in the latter season the SFCEVP fundamentally reduced. These results agree with projected changes in soil moisture, which is probably associated with changes in precipitation patterns. Additionally, the results reveal the major role of SFCEVP in modulating the climate over this region, which is involved in the complex land-atmosphere processes.Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granad

Projected hydrologic changes over the north of the Iberian Peninsula using a Euro-CORDEX multi-model ensemble

This study explores the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the headwater areas of the Duero River Basin, the largest basin of the Iberian Peninsula. To this end, an ensemble of 18 Euro-CORDEX model experiments was gathered for two periods, 1975–2005 and 2021–2100, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and were used as the meteorological forcings of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) during the hydrological modelling exercise. The projected hydrologic changes for the future period were analyzed at annual and seasonal scales using several evaluation metrics, such as the delta changes of the atmospheric and land variables, the runoff and evapotranspiration ratios of the overall water balance, the snowmelt contribution to the total streamflow and the centroid position for the daily hydrograph of the average hydrologic year. Annual streamflow reductions of up to 40% were attained in various parts of the basin for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, and resulted from the precipitation decreases in the southern subwatersheds and the combined effect of the precipitation decreases and evapotranspiration increases in the north. The runoff and the evapotranspiration ratios evinced a tendency towards an evaporative regime in the north part of the basin and a strengthening of the evaporative response in the south. Seasonal streamflow changes were mostly negative and dependent on the season considered, with greater detriments in spring and summer, and less intense ones in autumn and winter. The snowmelt contribution to the total streamflow was strongly diminished with decreases reaching −80% in autumn and spring, thus pointing to a change in the snow regime for the Duero mountains. Finally, the annual and seasonal changes of the centroid position accounted for the shape changes of the hydrograph, constituting a measure of seasonality and reflecting high correlations degrees with the streamflow delta changes.Departamento Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de GranadaSpanish Ministry of Economy and625 Competitiveness projects CGL2013-48539-R and CGL2017-89836-REuropean Community Funds (FEDER) and by FEDER/Junta de Andalucía-Consejería627 de Economía y Conocimiento/B-RNM-336-UGR18 projectMinistry of Education, Culture and Sport of Spain (FPU grant FPU17/02098

COVID-19 in Older Patients: Assessment of Post-COVID-19 Sarcopenia

(1) Background: Acute COVID-19 infections produce alterations in the skeletal muscle, leading to acute sarcopenia, but the medium- and long-term consequences are still unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate: (1) body composition; (2) muscle strength and the prevalence of sarcopenia; and (3) the relationship between muscle strength with symptomatic and functional evolution in older patients affected by/recovered from COVID-19; (2) Methods: A prospective, longitudinal study of patients aged ≥65 years who had suffered from COVID-19 infection between 1 March and 31 May 2020, as confirmed by PCR or subsequent seroconversion. Persistent symptoms, as well as anthropometric, clinical, and analytical characteristics, were analyzed at 3 and 12 months after infection. The degree of sarcopenia was determined by dynamometry and with SARC-F; (3) Results: 106 participants, aged 76.8 ± 7 years, were included. At 3 months postinfection, a high percentage of sarcopenic patients was found, especially among women and in those with hospitalization. At 12 months postinfection, this percentage had decreased, coinciding with a functional and symptomatic recovery, and the normalization of inflammatory parameters, especially interleukin-6 (4.7 ± 11.6 pg/mL vs. 1.5 ± 2.4 pg/mL, p < 0.05). The improvement in muscle strength was accompanied by significant weight gain (71.9 ± 12.1 kg vs. 74.7 ± 12.7 kg, p < 0.001), but not by an increase in lean mass (49.6 ± 10 vs. 49.9 ± 10, p 0.29); (4) Conclusions: Older COVID-19 survivors presented a functional, clinical, and muscular recovery 12 months postinfection. Even so, it is necessary to carry out comprehensive follow-ups and assessments that include aspects of nutrition and physical activity.Funding for open access charge: Universidad de Málag

Emergencia del cambio climático en cuencas de la Península Ibérica

Ponencia presentada en: XII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Santiago de Compostela entre el 19 y el 21 de octubre de 2022.[ES]Se espera que el aumento de la concentración de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) a la atmósfera cause importantes cambios en el sistema climático. Sin embargo, cómo será dicho efecto en el comportamiento de las diferentes variables climáticas es aún incierto a escala regional. Este estudio investiga la potencial emergencia de la señal de cambio climático antropogénico para las diferentes cuencas hidrográficas de la Península Ibérica (PI), una región especialmente vulnerable a los efectos del cambio climático. Para ello se analizan proyecciones de cambio climático regional de temperatura y precipitación a partir de la relación señal/ruido (S/N) calculada a escala estacional. Dichas proyecciones se obtuvieron con el modelo Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) el cual fue conducido por el modelo climático global (GCM) MPI-ESM-LR. MPI-ESM-LR fue previamente corregido en sesgo para simular el clima en la PI en el periodo de 1980 a 2100 bajo dos escenarios de emisión, el RCP4.5 y el RCP8.5. En general, los resultados mostraron que la señal de cambio climático antropogénico es probable que emerja durante el siglo XXI, al menos para la temperatura, siendo dicha señal más fuerte bajo el escenario RCP8.5 durante el otoño y verano. Bajo este mismo escenario, la precipitación muestra una señal de cambio más fuerte en primavera y verano. Determinar cómo evolucionará la señal de cambio antropogénica y cuando emergerá es de vital importancia, por lo que estos resultados pueden ayudar a la toma de decisiones y a la implementación de políticas de prevención y adaptación al cambio climático adecuadas.[EN]The rising concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere is expected to cause significant changes in the climate system. However, it is still uncertain how this factor would affect the behavior of different climatic variables on a regional scale.This study explores the potential emergence of the signal of anthropogenic climate change for the different river basins in the Iberian Peninsula (IP), a region that is especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. For this purpose, regional climate change projections of precipitation and temperature were analyzed by means of the signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio at a seasonal scale. These projections were achieved with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which was driven by the MPI-ESM-LR global climate model (GCM). MPI-ESM-LR was previously corrected in bias to simulate the climate in the IP for the period 1979 to 2100 under two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.Overall, the results indicated that the anthropogenic climate change signal is likely to emerge over the twenty-first century, at least for temperature, with this signal being stronger under the RCP8.5 scenario during autumn and summer. Under this same scenario, precipitation shows a stronger signal in summer and spring. Determining how the anthropogenic change signal will evolve and when it will emerge is critical; as a result, these findings can assist decision makers in developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation policies to climate change.Este estudio ha sido financiado por FEDER/Junta de Andalucía-Consejería de Transformación Económica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades (proyecto P20_00035), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (proyecto LifeWatch-2019-10-UGR-01), FEDER/Junta de Andalucía-Consejería de Economía y Conocimiento (proyecto B-RNM-336-UGR18), y Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (proyecto CGL2017-89836-R)

Estudio de la habilidad de las predicciones climáticas decenales para reproducir patrones de circulación atmosférica de gran escala

Ponencia presentada en: XII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Santiago de Compostela entre el 19 y el 21 de octubre de 2022.[ES]El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar la capacidad del Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) para reproducir los principales patrones de circulación atmosférica del hemisferio norte. El DPLE está constituido por una serie de simulaciones climáticas decenales llevadas a cabo con el Community Earth System Model (CESM) e inicializadas cada año en noviembre desde 1954 hasta 2015. Para cada fecha de inicialización, un total de 40 realizaciones fueron generadas mediante la perturbación aleatoria de las condiciones iniciales atmosféricas. En este estudio se han analizado los principales modos de variabilidad espaciotemporal en invierno (diciembre, enero y febrero) de la presión a nivel del mar (SLP) del DPLE mediante un análisis de componentes principales (PCA). Se ha tomado como referencia la SLP del reanálisis del Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) en la evaluación de los resultados. La mayor correspondencia entre los modos de variabilidad del DPLE y los de referencia se da para el rango de predicción de 1-4 años, aunque las correlaciones existentes entre las componentes principales rotadas no superan el valor de 0.5. Las correlaciones disminuyen para los rangos de predicción de 3-6 y 6-9 años.[EN]The aim of this study is to evaluate the skill of Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) in reproducing the main atmospheric circulation patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. The DPLE encompasses a collection of near-term climate simulations carried out with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and initialised every year in November from 1954 to 2015. For each initial date, an ensemble of 40 members was generated by randomly perturbing the initial atmospheric conditions. In this study, the main spatio-temporal variability modes of DPLE sea level pressure (SLP) in winter (December, January, and February) have been analysed by means of a principal component analysis (PCA). SLP data from the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) has been used as a reference dataset in the evaluation of the results. The largest similarities between the DPLE and reference variability modes have been found in the forecast range of 1-4 years, although the correlations between the rotated principal components do not surpass 0.5. The correlations decrease for the forecast ranges of 3-6 and 6-9 years.Este estudio ha sido realizado en el marco del proyecto CGL2017-89836-R, financiado por el Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, y con fondos FEDER adicionales: B-RNM-336- UGR18, financiado por FEDER/Junta de Andalucía - Conserjería de Economía y Conocimiento, y P20_00035, financiado por FEDER/Junta de Andalucía-Conserjería de Transformación Económica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades, y Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (proyecto LifeWatch-2019-10-UGR-01)

TGFβ Governs the Pleiotropic Activity of NDRG1 in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Progression

In triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), the pleiotropic NDRG1 (N-Myc downstream regulated gene 1) promotes progression and worse survival, yet contradictory results were documented, and the mechanisms remain unknown. Phosphorylation and localization could drive NDRG1 pleiotropy, nonetheless, their role in TNBC progression and clinical outcome was not investigated. We found enhanced p-NDRG1 (Thr346) by TGFβ1 and explored whether it drives NDRG1 pleiotropy and TNBC progression. In tissue microarrays of 81 TNBC patients, we identified that staining and localization of NDRG1 and p-NDRG1 (Thr346) are biomarkers and risk factors associated with shorter overall survival. We found that TGFβ1 leads NDRG1, downstream of GSK3β, and upstream of NF-κB, to differentially regulate migration, invasion, epithelial-mesenchymal transition, tumor initiation, and maintenance of different populations of cancer stem cells (CSCs), depending on the progression stage of tumor cells, and the combination of TGFβ and GSK3β inhibitors impaired CSCs. The present study revealed the striking importance to assess both total NDRG1 and p-NDRG1 (Thr346) positiveness and subcellular localization to evaluate patient prognosis and their stratification. NDRG1 pleiotropy is driven by TGFβ to differentially promote metastasis and/or maintenance of CSCs at different stages of tumor progression, which could be abrogated by the inhibition of TGFβ and GSK3β.Instituto de Salud Carlos III European Commission PI15/00336 PI19/01533 CP14/00197 CP19/00029 PIE16/00045Ministry of Science and Innovation, Spain (MICINN)Instituto de Salud Carlos IIISpanish Government RTI2018.101309B-C22Chair "Doctors Galera-Requena in cancer stem cell research" CMC-CTS963European Regional Development Fund (European Union)Ministerio de Universidades FPU19/04450Junta de Andalucia RH-0139-2020Sistema Nacional de Garantia Juvenil (Fondo Social Europeo) 8064Junta de Andalucia, Consejeria de Transformacion Economica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades DOC_01686Fundacion Cientifica Asociacion Espanola Contra el Cancer, Junta Provincial de Jaen (AECC) PRDJA19001BLA

Nutrición parenteral domiciliaria en España, 2019: informe del Grupo de Nutrición Artificial Domiciliaria y Ambulatoria NADYA

RESUMEN Objetivo: comunicar los datos de nutrición parenteral domiciliaria (NPD) obtenidos del registro del grupo NADYA-SENPE (www.nadyasenpe.com) del año 2019. Material y métodos: análisis descriptivo de los datos recogidos de pacientes adultos y pediátricos con NPD en el registro NADYA-SENPE desde el 1 de enero al 31 de diciembre de 2019. Resultados: se registraron 283 pacientes (51,9 %, mujeres), 31 niños y 252 adultos procedentes de 47 hospitales españoles, lo que representa una tasa de prevalencia de 6,01 pacientes/millón de habitantes/año 2019. El diagnóstico más frecuente en los adultos fue “oncológico paliativo” y “otros” (21,0 %). En los niños fue la enfermedad de Hirschsprung junto a la enterocolitis necrotizante, las alteraciones de la motilidad intestinal y la pseudoobstrucción intestinal crónica, con 4 casos cada uno (12,9 %). El primer motivo de indicación fue el síndrome del intestino corto tanto en los niños (51,6 %) como en los adultos (37,3 %). El tipo de catéter más utilizado fue el tunelizado tanto en los niños (75,9 %) como en los adultos (40,8 %). Finalizaron 68 episodios, todos en adultos: la causa más frecuente fue el fallecimiento (54,4 %). Pasaron a la vía oral el 38,2 %. Conclusiones: el número de centros y profesionales colaboradores con el registro NADYA va incrementándose. Se mantienen estables las principales indicaciones y los motivos de finalización de la NPD

Estudio de las proyecciones de futuro en sequía e incendios en la zona mediterránea

Ponencia presentada en: XI Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Cartagena entre el 17 y el 19 de octubre de 2018.[ES]El objetivo principal del trabajo ha consistido en la realización de proyecciones de futuro para la sequía y el área quemada (BA, Burned Area) por los incendios en verano sobre las regiones de la Europa mediterránea. Para la evaluación de la intensidad de la sequía se ha empleado el índice SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index), calculado a partir de datos de precipitación y de evapotranspiración potencial que se han obtenido de un modelo regional (MM5) alimentado por varios modelos globales. La BA se ha calculado utilizando un modelo empírico de regresión lineal que tiene al SPEI como variable. Las proyecciones de futuro han sido realizadas sobre tres de los escenarios de emisiones empleados en el cuarto informe del IPCC, el A2, el A1B y el B1, para las diferentes configuraciones del MM5 y han consistido en el cálculo de la diferencia de promedios temporales del SPEI y de la BA entre un período futuro, 2021-2050, y otro de referencia, 1971-2000. Los resultados indican que las regiones más afectadas por la sequía y los incendios podrían ser las de Portugal, las de la costa de Italia y las de Grecia. En este último caso, el índice SPEI en agosto experimenta descensos (incremento de la sequía) de entre -0.75 y -0.5 z (unidades estandarizadas). Los mayores incrementos netos en la BA tienen lugar en Portugal: entre 10 y 15 kha (miles de hectáreas). En Grecia se proyecta el mayor aumento relativo en la BA en el intervalo [100, 150] %.[EN]The main aim of this study was to carry out projections of future drought and burned area (BA) by fires in summer over Mediterranean Europe. To evaluate drought intensity, we have used the SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Index), computed with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data which have been obtained from a regional model (MM5) driven by several global models. We have calculated BA using an empirical linear regression model which has SPEI as predictor variable. Future projections have been made over three of the emission scenarios employed in the fourth IPCC assessment report, A2, A1B and B1 scenarios, for several MM5 averages between a future period, 2021-2050, and another reference one, 1971-2000. The results show that the most affected regions by drought and fires could be placed in Portugal, the Italian coast and Greece. In the latter case, SPEI shows a decrease in August (increase of drought intensity) between -0.75 z and -0.5 z (standardized units). The largest net increases in BA has taken place in Portugal: between 10 and 15 kha (thousands of hectares). In Greece, the largest relative increase in BA is projected in the [100, 150] % interval