Effects of the prewhitening method, the time granularity and the time segmentation on the Mann-Kendall trend detection and the associated Sen's slope

The most widely used non-parametric method for trend analysis is the Mann-Kendall test associated with the Sen's slope. The Mann-Kendall test requires serially uncorrelated time series, whereas most of the atmospheric processes exhibit positive autocorrelation. Several prewhitening methods have been designed to overcome the presence of lag-1 autocorrelation. These include a prewhitening, a detrending and/or a correction for the detrended slope and the original variance of the time series. The choice of which prewhitening method and temporal segmentation to apply has consequences for the statistical significance, the value of the slope and of the confidence limits. Here, the effects of various prewhitening methods are analyzed for seven time series comprising in-situ aerosol measurements (scattering coefficient, absorption coefficient, number concentration and aerosol optical depth), Raman Lidar water vapor mixing ratio and the tropopause and zero degree levels measured by radio-sounding. These time series are characterized by a broad variety of distributions, ranges and lag-1 autocorrelation values and vary in length between 10 and 60 years. A common way to work around the autocorrelation problem is to decrease it by averaging the data over longer time intervals than in the original time series. Thus, the second focus of this study is evaluation of the effect of time granularity on long-term trend analysis. Finally, a new algorithm involving three prewhitening methods is proposed in order to maximize the power of the test, to minimize the amount of erroneous detected trends in the absence of a real trend and to ensure the best slope estimate for the considered length of the time series

Validation of aerosol backscatter profiles from Raman lidar and ceilometer using balloon-borne measurements

Remote-sensing measurements by light detection and ranging (lidar) instruments are fundamental for the monitoring of altitude-resolved aerosol optical properties. Here we validate vertical profiles of aerosol backscatter coefficient ( aer) measured by two independent lidar systems using co-located balloon-borne measurements performed by Compact Optical Backscatter Aerosol Detector (COBALD) sondes. COBALD provides high-precision in situ measurements of aer at two wavelengths (455 and 940 nm). The two analyzed lidar systems are the research Raman Lidar for Meteorological Observations (RALMO) and the commercial CHM15K ceilometer (Lufft, Germany). We consider in total 17 RALMO and 31 CHM15K profiles, colocated with simultaneous COBALD soundings performed throughout the years 2014–2019 at the MeteoSwiss observatory of Payerne (Switzerland). The RALMO (355 nm) and CHM15K (1064 nm) measurements are converted to 455 and 940 nm, respectively, using the Ångström exponent profiles retrieved from COBALD data. To account for the different receiver field-of-view (FOV) angles between the two lidars (0.01–0.02 ) and COBALD (6 ), we derive a custom-made correction using Mie-theory scattering simulations. Our analysis shows that both lidar instruments achieve on average a good agreement with COBALD measurements in the boundary layer and free troposphere, up to 6 km altitude. For medium-high-aerosol-content measurements at altitudes below 3 km, the mean standard deviation difference in aer calculated from all considered soundings is -2% 37%(-0:018 0.237Mm-1 sr-1 at 455 nm) for RALMO-COBALD and C5% 43% (C0.009 0.185Mm-1 sr-1 at 940 mm) for CHM15K- COBALD. Above 3 km altitude, absolute deviations generally decrease, while relative deviations increase due to the prevalence of air masses with low aerosol content. Uncertainties related to the FOV correction and spatial- and temporalvariability effects (associated with the balloon’s drift with altitude and different integration times) contribute to the large standard deviations observed at low altitudes. The lack of information on the aerosol size distribution and the high atmospheric variability prevent an accurate quantification of these effects. Nevertheless, the excellent agreement observed in individual profiles, including fine and complex structures in the aer vertical distribution, shows that under optimal conditions, the discrepancies with the in situ measurements are typically comparable to the estimated statistical uncertainties in the remote-sensing measurements. Therefore, we conclude that aer profiles measured by the RALMO and CHM15K lidar systems are in good agreement with in situ measurements by COBALD sondes up to 6 km altitude.Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) European Commission PZ00P2 168114 200021_159950/

Use of automatic radiosonde launchers to measure temperature and humidity profiles from the GRUAN perspective

In the last two decades, technological progress has not only seen improvements to the quality of atmospheric upper-air observations but also provided the opportunity to design and implement automated systems able to replace measurement procedures typically performed manually. Radiosoundings, which remain one of the primary data sources for weather and climate applications, are still largely performed around the world manually, although increasingly fully automated upper-air observations are used, from urban areas to the remotest locations, which minimize operating costs and challenges in performing radiosounding launches. This analysis presents a first step to demonstrating the reliability of the automatic radiosonde launchers (ARLs) provided by Vaisala, Meteomodem and Meisei. The metadata and datasets collected by a few existing ARLs operated by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) certified or candidate sites (Sodankylä, Payerne, Trappes, Potenza) have been investigated and a comparative analysis of the technical performance (i.e. manual versus ARL) is reported. The performance of ARLs is evaluated as being similar or superior to those achieved with the traditional manual launches in terms of percentage of successful launches, balloon burst and ascent speed. For both temperature and relative humidity, the ground-check comparisons showed a negative bias of a few tenths of a degree and % RH, respectively. Two datasets of parallel soundings between manual and ARL-based measurements, using identical sonde models, provided by Sodankylä and Faa'a stations, showed mean differences between the ARL and manual launches smaller than ±0.2 K up to 10 hPa for the temperature profiles. For relative humidity, differences were smaller than 1 % RH for the Sodankylä dataset up to 300 hPa, while they were smaller than 0.7 % RH for Faa'a station. Finally, the observation-minus-background (O–B) mean and root mean square (rms) statistics for German RS92 and RS41 stations, which operate a mix of manual and ARL launch protocols, calculated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast model, are very similar, although RS41 shows larger rms(O–B) differences for ARL stations, in particular for temperature and wind. A discussion of the potential next steps proposed by GRUAN community and other parties is provided, with the aim to lay the basis for the elaboration of a strategy to fully demonstrate the value of ARLs and guarantee that the provided products are traceable and suitable for the creation of GRUAN data products

Homogenization of the long-term global ozonesonde records

Póster presentado en: WMO Technical Conference on Meteorological and Environmental Instruments and Methods of Observation celebrada del 10 al 13 de octubre de 2022 en París

Controlled weather balloon ascents and descents for atmospheric research and climate monitoring

In situ upper-air measurements are often made with instruments attached to weather balloons launched at the surface and lifted into the stratosphere. Present-day balloon-borne sensors allow near-continuous measurements from the Earth's surface to about 35km (3–5hPa), where the balloons burst and their instrument payloads descend with parachutes. It has been demonstrated that ascending weather balloons can perturb the air measured by very sensitive humidity and temperature sensors trailing behind them, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The use of controlled balloon descent for such measurements has therefore been investigated and is described here. We distinguish between the single balloon technique that uses a simple automatic valve system to release helium from the balloon at a preset ambient pressure, and the double balloon technique that uses a carrier balloon to lift the payload and a parachute balloon to control the descent of instruments after the carrier balloon is released at preset altitude. The automatic valve technique has been used for several decades for water vapor soundings with frost point hygrometers, whereas the double balloon technique has recently been re-established and deployed to measure radiation and temperature profiles through the atmosphere. Double balloon soundings also strongly reduce pendulum motion of the payload, stabilizing radiation instruments during ascent. We present the flight characteristics of these two ballooning techniques and compare the quality of temperature and humidity measurements made during ascent and descent.ISSN:1867-1381ISSN:1867-854

Radiosondes Show That After Decades of Cooling, the Lower Stratosphere Is Now Warming

Since the mid-twentieth century, radiosonde and satellite measurements show that the troposphere has warmed and the stratosphere has cooled. These changes are primarily due to increasing concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases and the depletion of stratospheric ozone. In response to continued greenhouse gas increases and stratospheric ozone depletion, climate models project continued tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling over the coming decades. Global average satellite observations of lower stratospheric temperatures exhibit no significant trends since the turn of the century. In contrast, an analysis of vertically resolved radiosonde measurements from 60 stations shows an increase of lower stratospheric temperature since the turn of the century at altitudes between 15 and 30 km and over most continents. Trend estimates are somewhat sensitive to homogeneity assessment choices, but all investigated radiosonde data sets suggest a change from late twentieth century cooling to early 21st century warming in the lower stratosphere, which is consistent with a reversal from ozone depletion to recovery from the effects of ozone-depleting substances. In comparison, satellite observations at the radiosonde locations show only minor early 21st century warming, possibly due to the compensating effects of continued cooling above the radiosonde altitude range

Balloon-borne match measurements of midlatitude cirrus clouds

Observations of high supersaturations with respect to ice inside cirrus clouds with high ice water content (> 0.01 g kg−1) and high crystal number densities (> 1 cm−3) are challenging our understanding of cloud microphysics and of climate feedback processes in the upper troposphere. However, single measurements of a cloudy air mass provide only a snapshot from which the persistence of ice supersaturation cannot be judged. We introduce here the "cirrus match technique" to obtain information about the evolution of clouds and their saturation ratio. The aim of these coordinated balloon soundings is to analyze the same air mass twice. To this end the standard radiosonde equipment is complemented by a frost point hygrometer, "SnowWhite", and a particle backscatter detector, "COBALD" (Compact Optical Backscatter AerosoL Detector). Extensive trajectory calculations based on regional weather model COSMO (Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling) forecasts are performed for flight planning, and COSMO analyses are used as a basis for comprehensive microphysical box modeling (with grid scale of 2 and 7 km, respectively). Here we present the results of matching a cirrus cloud to within 2–15 km, realized on 8 June 2010 over Payerne, Switzerland, and a location 120 km downstream close to Zurich. A thick cirrus cloud was detected over both measurement sites. We show that in order to quantitatively reproduce the measured particle backscatter ratios, the small-scale temperature fluctuations not resolved by COSMO must be superimposed on the trajectories. The stochastic nature of the fluctuations is captured by ensemble calculations. Possibilities for further improvements in the agreement with the measured backscatter data are investigated by assuming a very slow mass accommodation of water on ice, the presence of heterogeneous ice nuclei, or a wide span of (spheroidal) particle shapes. However, the resulting improvements from these microphysical refinements are moderate and comparable in magnitude with changes caused by assuming different regimes of temperature fluctuations for clear-sky or cloudy-sky conditions, highlighting the importance of proper treatment of subscale fluctuations. The model yields good agreement with the measured backscatter over both sites and reproduces the measured saturation ratios with respect to ice over Payerne. Conversely, the 30% in-cloud supersaturation measured in a massive 4 km thick cloud layer over Zurich cannot be reproduced, irrespective of the choice of meteorological or microphysical model parameters. The measured supersaturation can only be explained by either resorting to an unknown physical process, which prevents the ice particles from consuming the excess humidity, or – much more likely – by a measurement error, such as a contamination of the sensor housing of the SnowWhite hygrometer by a precipitation drop from a mixed-phase cloud just below the cirrus layer or from some very slight rain in the boundary layer. This uncertainty calls for in-flight checks or calibrations of hygrometers under the special humidity conditions in the upper troposphere.ISSN:1680-7375ISSN:1680-736