Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006?

In this paper we test the ability of three of the most popular methods to forecast the South African currency crisis of June 2006. In particular we are interested in the out-ofsample performance of these methods. Thus, we choose the latest crisis to conduct an out-of-sample experiment. In sum, the signals approach was not able to forecast the outof- sample crisis of correctly; the probit approach was able to predict the crisis but just with models, that were based on raw data. Employing a Markov-regime-switching approach also allows to predict the out-of-sample crisis. The answer to the question of which method made the run in forecasting the June 2006 currency crisis is: the Markovswitching approach, since it called most of the pre-crisis periods correctly. However, the “victory” is not straightforward. In-sample, the probit models perform remarkably well and it is also able to detect, at least to some extent, out-of-sample currency crises before their occurrence. It can, therefore, not be recommended to focus on one approach only when evaluating the risk for currency crises.currency crises, forecast, predictability, signals approach, probit approach, markov regime switching approach, south africa

Strong Nash Equilibria in Games with the Lexicographical Improvement Property

We introduce a class of finite strategic games with the property that every deviation of a coalition of players that is profitable to each of its members strictly decreases the lexicographical order of a certain function defined on the set of strategy profiles. We call this property the Lexicographical Improvement Property (LIP) and show that it implies the existence of a generalized strong ordinal potential function. We use this characterization to derive existence, efficiency and fairness properties of strong Nash equilibria. We then study a class of games that generalizes congestion games with bottleneck objectives that we call bottleneck congestion games. We show that these games possess the LIP and thus the above mentioned properties. For bottleneck congestion games in networks, we identify cases in which the potential function associated with the LIP leads to polynomial time algorithms computing a strong Nash equilibrium. Finally, we investigate the LIP for infinite games. We show that the LIP does not imply the existence of a generalized strong ordinal potential, thus, the existence of SNE does not follow. Assuming that the function associated with the LIP is continuous, however, we prove existence of SNE. As a consequence, we prove that bottleneck congestion games with infinite strategy spaces and continuous cost functions possess a strong Nash equilibrium

Implementation of Nonlinear Model Predictive Path-Following Control for an Industrial Robot

Many robotic applications, such as milling, gluing, or high precision measurements, require the exact following of a pre-defined geometric path. In this paper, we investigate the real-time feasible implementation of model predictive path-following control for an industrial robot. We consider constrained output path following with and without reference speed assignment. We present results from an implementation of the proposed model predictive path-following controller on a KUKA LWR IV robot.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures; final revised versio

Shark Hunting: International Trade and the Imminent Extinction of Heterogeneous Species

This paper examines the unprecedented decimation of sharks. We develop a Ricardian Gordon-Schaefer model with a continuum of heterogeneous species which are subject to combined harvesting and perfect substitutability in consumption. The model implies that slow-growing species, surviving in autarky, will be driven to extinction in an open trade regime. In the empirical analysis, we show that the model is in line with observations of shark biology and the international shark market. In particular, the likelihood of extinction turns out to be significantly greater for shark species which are part of trade in shark fins and exhibit low intrinsic growth

Developing a Decision Support System for Integrated Decision-Making in Purchasing and Scheduling under Lead Time Uncertainty

Decision-making in supply chain management is complex because of the relations between planning tasks from different stages and planning levels. Uncertainties such as unpredictable supplier lead times and supply chain disruptions further complicate decision-making. Considering the case study of a company in printed circuit board assembly, a three-level concept is proposed that includes a decision support system. The global single-source supply network is characterized by highly variable lead times. Hence, the company maintains high inventory levels to prevent running out of stock. The decision support system considers the purchasing and scheduling decision problems in an integrated way. The prototypical implementation of the purchasing algorithm uses a genetic algorithm that recommends reorder days and order quantities using a simulation model. In addition, it evaluates the risks of the recommended solution by calculating the probability of stockouts for each order cycle