The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets and financial services trade

This paper examines empirically the question whether the presence of foreign banks and a liberal trade regime with regard to financial services can contribute to a stabilization of capital flows to emerging markets. Since foreign banks, so the argument goes, provide better information to foreign investors and increase transparency, the danger of herding is reduced. Previous findings by Kono and Schuknecht (1998) confirmed empirically that such an effect does exist. This study expands their data set with respect to the length of the time period and the number of countries. Contrary to Kono and Schuknecht, it is found that foreign bank penetration tends to rather increase the volatility of capital flows. The trade regime variables are not significant in explaining cross-country variations in the volatility of capital flows. This result does not change significantly when alternative measures of volatility are considered. This paper was presented at the conference ''Financial crisis in transition countries: recent lessons and problems yet to solve'' on 13-14 July 2000 at the Institute for Economic Research (IWH) in Halle, Germany

Do country fundamentals explain emerging market bond spreads?

This paper shows that emerging market eurobond spreads after the Asian crisis can be almost completely explained by market expectations about macroeconomic fundamentals and international interest rates. Contrary to the claim that emerging market bond spreads are driven by market variables such as stock market volatility in the developed countries, it is found that this did not play a significant role after the Asian crisis. Using panel data techniques, it is shown that the determinants of bond spreads can be divided into long-term structural variables and medium-term variables which explain month-to-month changes in bond spreads. As relevant medium-term variables, ''consensus forecasts'' of real GDP growth and inflation, and international interest rates are identified. The long-term structural factors do not explicitly enter the model and show up as fixed or random country-specific effects. These intercepts are highly correlated with the countries' credit rating

The magnetic field along the jets of NGC 4258 as deduced from high frequency radio observations

We present 2.4" resolution, high sensitivity radio continuum observations of the nearby spiral galaxy NGC 4258 in total intensity and linear polarization obtained with the Very Large Array at 3.6 cm (8.44 GHz). The radio emission along the northern jet and the center of the galaxy is polarized and allows investigation of the magnetic field. Assuming energy-equipartition between the magnetic field and the relativistic particles and distinguishing between (1) a relativistic electron-proton jet and (2) a relativistic electron-positron jet, we obtain average magnetic field strengths of about (1) 310\muG and (2) 90\muG. The rotation measure is determined to range from -400 to -800 rad/m^2 in the northern jet. Correcting the observed E-vectors of polarized intensity for Faraday rotation, the magnetic field along the jet turns out to be orientated mainly along the jet axis. An observed tilt with respect to the jet axis may indicate also a toroidal magnetic field component or a slightly helical magnetic field around the northern jet.Comment: 9 pages with 9 figures. Accepted for publication in A&

Macroeconomic and financial stability challenges for acceding and candidate countries

This paper – based on a report by a Task Force established by the International Relations Committee (IRC) of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) – reviews macroeconomic and financial stability challenges for acceding (Bulgaria and Romania) and candidate countries (Croatia and Turkey). In an environment characterised by strong growth and capital inflows, the main macroeconomic challenges relate to the recent pick-up of inflation and the large and widening current account deficits. Moreover, rapid credit growth has been a recent feature of financial development in all countries and thus constitutes the main financial stability challenge. In general, monetary authorities have responded to these challenges by tightening monetary conditions and prudential standards, with concrete measures also reflecting the different monetary and exchange rate regimes in the region. The paper also highlights four specific features of financial development in the countries under review, namely the dominance of banks in financial intermediation, the strong participation of foreign-owned banks, the widespread use of foreign currencies and the strengthening of supervisory frameworks. JEL Classification: E65, G21, G38, O16, P27.South-East Europe, macroeconomic performance, credit growth, financial stability.

Metallkomplexe mit biologisch wichtigen Liganden, LXV

Cp*Co(CO)I2 (Cp* = 5-C5Me5), [(6-arene)RuCl2]2 (arene = p-cymene, hexamethylbenzene), and [Cp*MCl2]2 (M = Rh, Ir) react with -amino amides and various peptide esters to give the N,O-chelate complexes [Cp*(I)Co - NH2C(H)(R1)C(NHR2)-O]+ (1), [(6-arene)(Cl)Ru - NH2C(H)(R1)C(NHR2)O]+ (2), and [CP*(Cl)M - NH2CH2C(NHR)O]+ (M = Rh, Ir) (5, in solution), respectively. In the solid state the ligands are 1N-bonded in 5. By deprotonation of the peptide bond in 2 and 5 the neutral N, N-chelate complexes (6-arene)(Cl)Ru - NH2C(H)(R1)C(O)-2 (6) and Cp*(Cl)M - NH2C(H)(R1)C(O)NR2 (M = Rh, Ir) (7) have been obtained. Glycinenitrile is 1-bonded in (6-p-cymene)(Cl)2Ru(NH2CH2CN) (3) and Cp*(Cl)2Rh(NH2CH2CN) (4). Double deprotonated triglycine methyl ester is a N,N,N-tridentate ligand in (6-C6Me6)Ru(NH2CH2C(O)NCH2C(O)-NCH2CO2Me) (8). The anions of L-asparagine and of aspartame (L-aspartyl-L-phenylalanine methyl ester) give the complexes 9-12 with tridentate O,N,O- or O,N,N-chelate ligands. The crystal structures of 1d (L = glyglyOEt), 5a (L = glycinamide), 6e (L = glyglyOEt), and 7k (L = glyglyglyOEt) have been determined by X-ray structural analysis

Long-term growth prospects for the Russian economy

This paper provides an assessment of Russia’s long-term growth prospects. In particular, it addresses the question of the medium- and long-term sustainability of the country’s currently high growth rates. Starting from the notion that Russia’s fast economic expansion in recent years has benefited from a number of singular factors such as the unprecedented rise in oil prices, the paper presents new evidence on Russia’s oil price dependency using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework. The findings indicate that the positive impact of rising oil prices on Russia’s GDP growth has increased in recent years, but tends to be buffered by an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate which is stimulating imports. Additionally, there is empirical confirmation that growth in the service sector – a symptom usually associated with the Dutch disease phenomenon – is mainly a result of the transition process. Finally, the paper provides an overview of the relevant factors that are likely to affect Russia’s growth performance in the future. JEL Classification: O43, O 47, O51, O11, O14.Russia, economic growth.

Towards Ideal Semantics for Analyzing Stream Reasoning

The rise of smart applications has drawn interest to logical reasoning over data streams. Recently, different query languages and stream processing/reasoning engines were proposed in different communities. However, due to a lack of theoretical foundations, the expressivity and semantics of these diverse approaches are given only informally. Towards clear specifications and means for analytic study, a formal framework is needed to define their semantics in precise terms. To this end, we present a first step towards an ideal semantics that allows for exact descriptions and comparisons of stream reasoning systems.Comment: International Workshop on Reactive Concepts in Knowledge Representation (ReactKnow 2014), co-located with the 21st European Conference on Artificial Intelligence (ECAI 2014). Proceedings of the International Workshop on Reactive Concepts in Knowledge Representation (ReactKnow 2014), pages 17-22, technical report, ISSN 1430-3701, Leipzig University, 2014. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:15-qucosa-150562 2014,

Percussion Ensemble, April 10, 2001

This is the concert program of the Percussion Ensemble performance on Tuesday, April 10, 2001 at 8:00 p.m., at Boston University Concert Hall, 855 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts. Works performed were Four Four for Four by Anthony Cirone, Double Music by Cage and Harrison, Concerto for Timpani and Percussion by John Beck, First Construction in Metal by John Cage, Music for Pieces of Wood by Steve Reich, and Stained Glass by David Gillingham. Digitization for Boston University Concert Programs was supported by the Boston University Humanities Library Endowed Fund

Institution building and growth in transition economies

Drawing on the recent literature on economic institutions and the origins of economic development, the authors offer a political economy explanation of why institution building has varied so much across transition economies. They identify dependence on natural resources and the historical experience of these countries during socialism as major determinants of institution building during transition by influencing the political structure and process during the initial years. Their empirical analysis shows that countries that are more reliant on natural resources and spent a longer time under socialist governments are more likely to see former communists remain in power and to start the transition process with less open political systems, with negative repercussions for the development of market-compatible institutions. Using natural resource reliance and the years under socialism to extract the exogenous component of institution building, the authors also show the importance of institutions in explaining the variation in economic development and growth across transition economies during the first decade of transition.