Energy Security prospects in Cyprus and Israel: A focus on Natural Gas

The global production of natural gas has increased from 1226 bcm in 1973 to 3282 bcm in 2010 and is projected to continue rising by an annual growth rate of 1.6% between 2010 to 2035. Cyprus and Israel have recently made major offshore discoveries of natural gas, which can supply to a great extent the two countries’ current domestic energy needs for the next few decades and still export a substantial volume. MESSAGE, a global optimization model was used to explore the possible interactions between the two countries’ energy systems. Scenarios are presented that assess the export potential for electricity (generated by gas-fired power plants), liquefied natural gas (LNG) or gas-to-liquid products (GTL). The results are compared to a scenario without any available reserves to illustrate the financial benefits that will arise from the exploitation of the gas resources in the two countries

Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.Energy Access, Power System Planning, Sub-Saharan Africa

An indicative assessment of investment opportunities in the African electricity supply sector

In the coming decades, demand for electricity will increase considerably on the African continent. Investment in power generation, transmission and distribution is necessary to meet this demand. In this paper a cost-optimization tool is used to assess investment opportunities under varying scenarios of GDP growth, electricity trade and CO2 taxation. Business as usual fuel price outlooks are assumed, and related assumptions are relatively conservative. The goal is to find if there are economic indications that renewable energy might play a significant role in the expansion of the African electricity system. The results show that there is potential of renewable energy (RE) resources to have a significant share in the generation mix. By 2030, 42% and 55% of the total generation is powered by renewables in the high and low GDP scenarios respectively. Promotion of interregional trade can assist in unlocking RE potential across the continent, such as hydro in Central Africa and wind in East Africa; these regions are projected to be net exporters of electricity. Additionally, generation by off-grid technologies increases over time, reaching 12% of the total generation by 2030 in Sub-Saharan Africa

IPCC Workshop on Describing Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk and of Options

This report summarizes an IPCC workshop which was convened to discuss how to communicate areas of risk and uncertainty in the 4th IPCC Assessment Report

Summary for Policymakers IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III

A. Introduction 1. The Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on thescientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects ofmitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third AssessmentReport (TAR) and the Special Reports on COB2B Capture and Storage (SRCCS)and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The following summary is organised into six sections after thisintroduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends, - Mitigation in theshort and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030), -Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030), - Policies, measures andinstruments to mitigate climate change, - Sustainable development andclimate change mitigation, - Gaps in knowledge. References to thecorresponding chapter sections are indicated at each paragraph in squarebrackets. An explanation of terms, acronyms and chemical symbols used inthis SPM can be found in the glossary to the main report

World outlook for nuclear power

The Fukushima Daiichi accident of March 2011 has re-ignited the debate about the role of nuclear power in the future global energy mix. More than one and a half years after the accident, a somewhat clearer picture is emerging – different countries responded with different nuclear policies, e.g., one size does not fit all. While several countries confirmed or decided to phase-out the use of the technology or to cancel their plans of adding nuclear power to their future electricity generating mix, the majority of countries with operating nuclear power plants or plans to eventually start national nuclear power programmes continue with the implementation of their pre-Fukushima nuclear strategies albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Projections of future nuclear capacity expansion for the year 2030 show a likely shift of global nuclear generating capacities by about a decade but no significant retraction of national nuclear power programmes globally. Keywords: Fukushima Daiichi accident, Nuclear power projections, National nuclear policie

The case for nuclear power in the Middle East and North Africa

Several Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries have, over the past decades, declared an interest in nuclear power, although aside from some limited R&D; programmes based on research reactors in a few Arab countries (Egypt, Algeria, and Libya, for example) and Iran, until recently no MENA state has committed to a concrete nuclear power programme. This changed in the new millennium, with the UAE’s firm nuclear programme that will add 20 MW of nuclear power by 2020, turning it into the first Arab country to produce nuclear power for domestic use. Other regional neighbours, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Kuwait have been announcing plans for similar programmes. This article summarizes the rationale for nuclear power in both the GCC and MENA countries, before reviewing economic competitiveness in the regional context, the requirements for infrastructure and regulation, and the status of regional programmes