Improving location prediction services for new users with probabilistic latent semantic analysis

Location prediction systems that attempt to determine the mobility patterns of individuals in their daily lives have become increasingly common in recent years. Approaches to this prediction task include eigenvalue decomposition [5], non-linear time series analysis of arrival times [10], and variable order Markov models [1]. However, these approachesall assume sufficient sets of training data. For new users, by definition, this data is typically not available, leading to poor predictive performance. Given that mobility is a highly personal behaviour, this represents a significant barrier to entry. Against this background, we present a novel framework to enhance prediction using information about the mobility habits of existing users. At the core of the framework is a hierarchical Bayesian model, a type of probabilistic semantic analysis [7], representing the intuition that the temporal features of the new user’s location habits are likely to be similar to those of an existing user in the system. We evaluate this framework on the real life location habits of 38 users in the Nokia Lausanne dataset, showing that accuracy is improved by 16%, relative to the state of the art, when predicting the next location of new users

Mechanism design for eliciting probabilistic estimates from multiple suppliers with unknown costs and limited precision

This paper reports on the design of a novel two-stage mechanism, based on strictly proper scoring rules, that allows a centre to acquire a costly probabilistic estimate of some unknown parameter, by eliciting and fusing estimates from multiple suppliers. Each of these suppliers is capable of producing a probabilistic estimate of any precision, up to a privately known maximum, and by fusing several low precision estimates together the centre is able to obtain a single estimate with a specified minimum precision. Specifically, in the mechanism's first stage M from N agents are pre-selected by eliciting their privately known costs. In the second stage, these M agents are sequentially approached in a random order and their private maximum precision is elicited. A payment rule, based on a strictly proper scoring rule, then incentivises them to make and truthfully report an estimate of this maximum precision, which the centre fuses with others until it achieves its specified precision. We formally prove that the mechanism is incentive compatible regarding the costs, maximum precisions and estimates, and that it is individually rational. We present empirical results showing that our mechanism describes a family of possible ways to perform the pre-selection in the first stage, and formally prove that there is one that dominates all others

Mechanism design for eliciting probabilistic estimates from multiple suppliers with unknown costs and limited precision

This paper reports on the design of a novel two-stage mechanism, based on strictly proper scoring rules, that allows a centre to acquire a costly probabilistic estimate of some unknown parameter, by eliciting and fusing estimates from multiple suppliers. Each of these suppliers is capable of producing a probabilistic estimate of any precision, up to a privately known maximum, and by fusing several low precision estimates together the centre is able to obtain a single estimate with a specified minimum precision. Specifically, in the mechanism's first stage M from N agents are pre-selected by eliciting their privately known costs. In the second stage, these M agents are sequentially approached in a random order and their private maximum precision is elicited. A payment rule, based on a strictly proper scoring rule, then incentivises them to make and truthfully report an estimate of this maximum precision, which the centre fuses with others until it achieves its specified precision. We formally prove that the mechanism is incentive compatible regarding the costs, maximum precisions and estimates, and that it is individually rational. We present empirical results showing that our mechanism describes a family of possible ways to perform the pre-selection in the first stage, and formally prove that there is one that dominates all others

It’s not the model that doesn’t fit, it’s the controller! The role of cognitive skills in understanding the links between natural mapping, performance, and enjoyment of console video games

This study examines differences in performance, frustration, and game ratings of individuals playing first person shooter video games using two different controllers (motion controller and a traditional, pushbutton controller) in a within-subjects, randomized order design. Structural equation modeling was used to demonstrate that cognitive skills such as mental rotation ability and eye/hand coordination predicted performance for both controllers, but the motion control was significantly more frustrating. Moreover, increased performance was only related to game ratings for the traditional controller input. We interpret these data as evidence that, contrary to the assumption that motion controlled interfaces are more naturally mapped than traditional push-button controllers, the traditional controller was more naturally mapped as an interface for gameplay

Red Show, Blue Show: A Content Analysis of Liberals’ and Conservatives’ Respective Television Favorites

Ideological partisans in the United States are increasingly “sorting” themselves along cultural lines, from the cable news stations they watch to the chain restaurants they prefer. How do partisans seem to “know” how to sort themselves along ideological lines in cultural realms that offer no obvious political cues? To investigate this question, I look to the realm of narrative television, where conservatives and liberals have certain unique favorite programs despite the programs lacking any overt political content. I employ a quantitative content analysis to demonstrate that the substance of these polarizing shows relate to the social traits of curiosity, conformity, relativism, dogmatism, tribalism, vigilance, and chastity, which have previously been demonstrated to correspond to political ideology

Halloween in Urban North America: Liminality and Hyperreality

Halloween, a relatively free-form holiday under no particular jurisdiction, has managed to retain the revelrous, liminal nature characteristic of many festivals in the past. With its roots in the pagan festival of Samhain or summersend, All Hallows Eve remained a festival of popular divinatory practices, of bonfires to ward off evil spirits or to help souls in purgatory, and of omens and magic. Rites of masking, treating, revelry, and mischief were well established before the major waves of Irish and Scottish immigration to North America, but Halloween did not attract much public attention until the 1880s as rival holidays declined. Halloween’s modern popularity, however, also stems from its immersion in consumer culture and in the hyperreality of films, videos, spook houses, and ‘‘terror trains’’, in which the distinction between the real and the imaginary is blurred.La Halloween, un congé à forme relativement libre ne relevant d’aucune autorité particulière, a réussi à conserver la nature festive et ésotérique de bon nombre de festivals d’antan. La veille de la Toussaint, qui remonte au festival païen de la Samhain, ou de fin d’été, demeure un festival de pratiques divinatoires populaires, de feux de joie pour chasser les mauvais esprits ou pour aider les âmes au purgatoire, de présages et de magie. Les rituels du port du masque, de la sollicitation de friandises, des festivités et de l’espièglerie étaient bien établis avant l’arrivée en vagues massives des immigrants irlandais et écossais en Amérique du Nord, mais la Halloween intéressa peu la population jusque dans les années 1880, au moment du déclin de fêtes rivales. La popularité moderne de la Halloween tient toutefois à son immersion dans la culture de la consommation et dans l’hyperréalité des films, vidéos, maisons hantées et « trains de la terreur », où se confondent le réel et l’imaginaire

Policing the Poor in Eighteenth-Century London: The Vagrancy Laws and Their Administration

The treatment of vagrancy in eighteenth-century England has conventionally been seen as amateurish, arbitrary and corrupt. This paper argues that, even in London, vagrancy was shaped by local discretionary code that recognized the diversity and complexity of vagrancy and the requirements of a capitalist economy for male, mobile labour. It was only as the metropolitan labour market contracted that the defects of the vagrancy laws became apparent. In this context, local administrative policies gave way to broader, interventionist strategies as new kinds of "moral entrepreneurs" persuaded ratepayers that more expensive, carceral alternatives were necessary to police London's wandering poor.Le vagabondage dans l'Angleterre du XVIIIe siècle a été assujetti, estime-t-on généralement, à un traitement fantaisiste, arbitraire et malhonnête. Pourtant, soutient l'auteur de cet article, Londres faisait preuve d'une grande souplesse à cet égard, dans le respect des particularismes locaux et des exigences de l'économie capitaliste en matière de main-d'oeuvre masculine et de mobilité. Ce n'est qu'au moment où le marché du travail s'est rétréci que les carences de la législation sur le vagabondage devinrent manifestes et que, aiguillonnés par les « entrepreneurs en moralité », les contribuables poussèrent les administrations locales à recourir à l'incarcération pour contrôler les clochards et les errants

Burning Tom Paine: Loyalism and Counter-Revolution in Britain, 1792-1793

Between November 1792 and March 1793, the author of The Rights of Man, Tom Paine, was burnt in effigy in a number of places throughout England. Occurring at the time of Louis Capet’s trial and execution and at the onset of the Terror in France, the effigy burnings of Paine are often seen as evidence of the basically conservative and traditionally libertarian sentiments of the British populace and, in some instances, as testimony to a populist, counter-revolutionary nationalism. However, an examination of some 200 incidents noted in the London and provincial press and of the “pulp literature” of loyalism indicates that the effigy burnings were an attempt by sectors of the British ruling class and its middling allies to fashion a “popular” loyalism without encouraging democratic sentiments and to warn radicals against disseminating their views. The effigy burnings were successful in capturing public space for the loyalist cause, but their ability to win over a large audience was more problematic. The opposition to naval recruitment in early 1793 suggests that the loyalist encouragement of the war effort met with a mixed response; the high incidence of food rioting in 1794 and 1795 suggests that the loyalist investment in economic growth and social paternalism met with considerable scepticism, if not contempt. Loyalists might trumpet the social reciprocities between rich and poor, but their ability to command popular allegiance depended ultimately upon performing those responsibilities, not simply parading them.De novembre 1792 à mars 1793, on brûla en effigie l’auteur de The Rights of Man, Tom Paine, dans un certain nombre d’endroits en Angleterre. Ces événements, qui se déroulaient en même temps que le procès et l’exécution de Louis Capet et au début de la Terreur en France, sont souvent pris en preuve des sentiments fondamentalement conservateurs et traditionnellement libertariens de la population britannique et, dans certains cas, comme le témoignage d’un nationalisme populiste contre-révolutionnaire. Toutefois, un examen de quelque 200 incidents signalés dans la presse londonienne et provinciale et dans la « littérature bon marché » du loyalisme indique que le brûlage des effigies était une tentative par les secteurs de la classe dirigeante britannique et ses alliés de fabriquer un loyalisme « populaire » sans encourager les sentiments démocratiques et de prévenir les radicaux de ne pas propager leurs vues. Le brûlage des effigies a réussi à faire connaître la cause loyaliste sur la place publique, mais il a eu plus de difficulté à rallier un vaste auditoire. L’opposition au recrutement naval au début de 1793 donne à croire que l’encouragement loyaliste à l’effort de guerre a reçu un accueil mitigé; l’incidence élevée d’émeutes alimentaires en 1794 et en 1795 semble indiquer que l’investissement loyaliste dans la croissance économique et le paternalisme social a suscité beaucoup de scepticisme, voire du mépris. Les loyalistes pouvaient claironner les réciprocités sociales entre les riches et les pauvres, mais leur capacité à commander l’allégeance du peuple dépendait en bout de ligne de l’exercice de ces responsabilités, pas de leur seul étalage