Physically meaningful uncertainty quantification in probabilistic wind turbine power curve models as a damage-sensitive feature

A wind turbines’ power curve is an easily accessible form of damage-sensitive data, and as such is a key part of structural health monitoring (SHM) in wind turbines. Power curve models can be constructed in a number of ways, but the authors argue that probabilistic methods carry inherent benefits in this use case, such as uncertainty quantification and allowing uncertainty propagation analysis. Many probabilistic power curve models have a key limitation in that they are not physically meaningful – they return mean and uncertainty predictions outside of what is physically possible (the maximum and minimum power outputs of the wind turbine). This paper investigates the use of two bounded Gaussian processes (GPs) in order to produce physically meaningful probabilistic power curve models. The first model investigated was a warped heteroscedastic Gaussian process, and was found to be ineffective due to specific shortcomings of the GP in relation to the warping function. The second model – an approximated GP with a Beta likelihood was highly successful and demonstrated that a working bounded probabilistic model results in better predictive uncertainty than a corresponding unbounded one without meaningful loss in predictive accuracy. Such a bounded model thus offers increased accuracy for performance monitoring and increased operator confidence in the model due to guaranteed physical plausibility

Flux-noise spectra around the Kosterlitz-Thouless transition for two-dimensional superconductors

The flux-noise spectra around the Kosterlitz-Thouless transition are obtained from simulations of the two-dimensional resistively shunted junction model. In particular the dependence on the distance $d$ between the pick-up coil and the sample is investigated. The typical experimental situation corresponds to the large-$d$ limit and a simple relation valid in this limit between the complex impedance and the noise spectra is clarified. Features, which distinguish between the large- and small-$d$ limit, are identified and the possibility of observing these features in experiments is discussed.Comment: 12 pages including 8 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Moving on from Weiser's Vision of Calm Computing: engaging UbiComp experiences

A motivation behind much UbiComp research has been to make our lives convenient, comfortable and informed, following in the footsteps of Weiser's calm computing vision. Three themes that have dominated are context awareness, ambient intelligence and monitoring/tracking. While these avenues of research have been fruitful their accomplishments do not match up to anything like Weiser's world. This paper discusses why this is so and argues that is time for a change of direction in the field. An alternative agenda is outlined that focuses on engaging rather than calming people. Humans are very resourceful at exploiting their environments and extending their capabilities using existing strategies and tools. I describe how pervasive technologies can be added to the mix, outlining three areas of practice where there is much potential for professionals and laypeople alike to combine, adapt and use them in creative and constructive ways

Observation of a molecular muonium polaron and its application to probing magnetic and electronic states

We thank the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC UK) for support via Grants No. EP/M000923/1, No. EP/K036408/1, No. EP/I004483/1, No. EP/S031081/1, and No. EP/S030263/1. L.L., S.S., D.J. and G.T. acknowledge also support from STFC-ISIS Neutron and Muon Source and Ada Lovelace Centre at STFC-SCD. We acknowledge use of the ARCHER (via the U.K. Car–Parrinello Consortium, EP/P022618/1 and EP/P022189/2), U.K. Materials and Molecular Modelling Hub (EP/P020194/1), and STFC Scientific Computing Department's SCARF HCP facilities. We acknowledge support from the Henry Royce Institute. This work was also supported financially through the EPSRC Grant Nos. EP/ P022464/1, and EP/R00661X/1.Muonium is a combination of first- and second-generation matter formed by the electrostatic interaction between an electron and an antimuon (μ+). Although a well-known physical system, their ability to form collective excitations in molecules had not been observed. Here, we give evidence for the detection of a muonium state that propagates in a molecular semiconductor lattice via thermally activated dynamics: a muonium polaron. By measuring the temperature dependence of the depolarization of the muonium state in C60, we observe a thermal narrowing of the hyperfine distribution that we attribute to the dynamics of the muonium between molecular sites. As a result of the time scale for muonium decay, the energies involved, charge and spin selectivity, this quasiparticle is a widely applicable experimental tool. It is an excellent probe of emerging electronic, dynamic, and magnetic states at interfaces and in low dimensional systems, where direct spatial probing is an experimental challenge owing to the buried interface, nanoscale elements providing the functionality localization and small magnitude of the effects.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

First Stars. I. Evolution without mass loss

The first generation of stars was formed from primordial gas. Numerical simulations suggest that the first stars were predominantly very massive, with typical masses M > 100 Mo. These stars were responsible for the reionization of the universe, the initial enrichment of the intergalactic medium with heavy elements, and other cosmological consequences. In this work, we study the structure of Zero Age Main Sequence stars for a wide mass and metallicity range and the evolution of 100, 150, 200, 250 and 300 Mo galactic and pregalactic Pop III very massive stars without mass loss, with metallicity Z=10E-6 and 10E-9, respectively. Using a stellar evolution code, a system of 10 equations together with boundary conditions are solved simultaneously. For the change of chemical composition, which determines the evolution of a star, a diffusion treatment for convection and semiconvection is used. A set of 30 nuclear reactions are solved simultaneously with the stellar structure and evolution equations. Several results on the main sequence, and during the hydrogen and helium burning phases, are described. Low metallicity massive stars are hotter and more compact and luminous than their metal enriched counterparts. Due to their high temperatures, pregalactic stars activate sooner the triple alpha reaction self-producing their own heavy elements. Both galactic and pregalactic stars are radiation pressure dominated and evolve below the Eddington luminosity limit with short lifetimes. The physical characteristics of the first stars have an important influence in predictions of the ionizing photon yields from the first luminous objects; also they develop large convective cores with important helium core masses which are important for explosion calculations.Comment: 17 pages, 24 figures, 2 table

Temperature and Frequency Dependence of Complex Conductance of Ultrathin YBa2Cu3O7-x Films: A Study of Vortex-Antivortex Pair Unbinding

We have studied the temperature dependencies of the complex sheet conductance of 1-3 unit cell (UC) thick YBa2Cu3O7-x films sandwiched between semiconducting Pr0.6Y0.4Ba2Cu3O7-x layers at high frequencies. Experiments have been carried out in a frequency range between: 2 - 30 MHz with one-spiral coil technique, 100 MHz - 1 GHz frequency range with a new technique using the spiral coil cavity and at 30 GHz by aid of a resonant cavity technique. The real and imaginary parts of the mutual-inductance between a coil and a film were measured and converted to complex conductivity by aid of the inversion procedure. We have found a quadratic temperature dependence of the kinetic inductance, L_k^-1(T), at low temperatures independent of frequency, with a break in slope at T^dc_BKT, the maximum of real part of conductance and a large shift of the break temperature and the maximum position to higher temperatures with increasing frequency. We obtain from these data the universal ratio T^dc_BKT/L_k^-1(T^dc_BKT) = 25, 25, and 17 nHK for 1-, 2- and 3UC films, respectively in close agreement with theoretical prediction of 12 nHK for vortex-antivortex unbinding transition. The activated temperature dependence of the vortex diffusion constant was observed and discussed in the framework of vortex-antivortex pair pinning. PACS numbers: 74.80.Dm, 74.25.Nf, 74.72.Bk, 74.76.BzComment: PDF file, 10 pages, 6 figures, to be published in J. Low Temp. Phys.; Proc. of NATO ARW: VORTEX 200

In the eye of the beholder:promoting learner-centric design to develop mobile games for learning

Out of the project EMuRgency a game-based learning environment evolved, which trains school children in providing reanimation and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). The application gets players to act as if they were in a real case of emergency. This paper reports on a formal usability study conducted with two different groups of learners, regular learners and learners with special educational needs (SEN). With the study we compared the two groups of learners with regard to game usability and effectiveness of the intervention. Our intention was to better understand the different needs and requirements to learning materials that game designer need to take into consideration in order to make the learning experience successful for both groups. A total of 89 children played the game simulation. Results showed differences in perception and effectiveness of individual mechanisms for the two groups with regard to usability or switching between tasks and mobile device.This publication was partly financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), regions of the Euregio Meuse-Rhine and the participating institutions under the INTERREG IVa program (EMR.INT4-1.2.-2011-04/070, http://www.emurgency.eu)

Specific Heat of Liquid Helium in Zero Gravity very near the Lambda Point

We report the details and revised analysis of an experiment to measure the specific heat of helium with subnanokelvin temperature resolution near the lambda point. The measurements were made at the vapor pressure spanning the region from 22 mK below the superfluid transition to 4 uK above. The experiment was performed in earth orbit to reduce the rounding of the transition caused by gravitationally induced pressure gradients on earth. Specific heat measurements were made deep in the asymptotic region to within 2 nK of the transition. No evidence of rounding was found to this resolution. The optimum value of the critical exponent describing the specific heat singularity was found to be a = -0.0127+ - 0.0003. This is bracketed by two recent estimates based on renormalization group techniques, but is slightly outside the range of the error of the most recent result. The ratio of the coefficients of the leading order singularity on the two sides of the transition is A+/A- =1.053+ - 0.002, which agrees well with a recent estimate. By combining the specific heat and superfluid density exponents a test of the Josephson scaling relation can be made. Excellent agreement is found based on high precision measurements of the superfluid density made elsewhere. These results represent the most precise tests of theoretical predictions for critical phenomena to date.Comment: 27 Pages, 20 Figure