Disease prevention versus data privacy : using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock

Vacuum-UV negative photoion spectroscopy of CH4

Using synchrotron radiation in the range 12-35 eV, negative ions are detected by mass spectrometry following vacuum-UV photoexcitation of methane. Ion yields for H$^-$, CH$^-$ and CH$_2^-$ are recorded, the spectra of CH$^-$ and CH$_2^-$ for the first time. All ions display a linear dependence of signal with pressure, showing that they arise from unimolecular ion-pair dissociation. Cross sections for ion-pair formation are put onto an absolute scale by calibrating the signal strengths with those of F$^-$ from SF$_6$ and CF$_4$. Following normalisation to total vacuum-UV absorption cross sections, quantum yields for anion production are reported. There is a major discrepancy in the H$^-$ cross section with an earlier measurement, which remains unresolved. The anions arise from both direct and indirect ion-pair mechanisms. For a generic polyatomic molecule AB, the former is defined as AB $\rightarrow$ A$^-$ + B$^+$ (+ neutrals), the latter as the predissociative crossing of an initially-excited Rydberg state of AB by an ion-pair state. In a separate experiment, the threshold photoelectron spectrum of the second valence band of CH$_4$, ionisation to CH$_4^+$ A $^2$A$_1$ at 22.4 eV, is recorded with an instrumental resolution of 0.004 eV; many of the Rydberg states observed in indirect ion-pair formation converge to this state. The widths of the peaks are lifetime limited, increasing with increasing $v$ in the $v_1$ (a$_1$) vibrational ladder. They are the first direct measurement of an upper value to the dissociation rate of these levels into fragment ions

One-by-one trap activation in silicon nanowire transistors

Flicker or 1/f noise in metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFETs) has been identified as the main source of noise at low frequency. It often originates from an ensemble of a huge number of charges trapping and detrapping. However, a deviation from the well-known model of 1/f noise is observed for nanoscale MOSFETs and a new model is required. Here, we report the observation of one-by-one trap activation controlled by the gate voltage in a nanowire MOSFET and we propose a new low-frequency-noise theory for nanoscale FETs. We demonstrate that the Coulomb repulsion between electronically charged trap sites avoids the activation of several traps simultaneously. This effect induces a noise reduction by more than one order of magnitude. It decreases when increasing the electron density in the channel due to the electrical screening of traps. These findings are technologically useful for any FETs with a short and narrow channel.Comment: One file with paper and supplementary informatio

Nonperiodic inspections to guarantee a prescribed level of reliability

A cost-optimal nonperiodic inspection policy is derived for complex multicomponent systems. The model takes into consideration the degradation of all the components in the system with the use of a Bessel process with drift. The inspection times are determined by a deterministic function and depend on the system’s performance measure. The nonperiodic policy is developed by evaluating the expected lifetime costs and the optimal policy by an optimal choice of inspection function. The model thus gives a guaranteed level of reliability throughout the life of the project

Epstein-Barr virus nuclear protein EBNA3C directly induces expression of AID and somatic mutations in B cells

Activation-induced cytidine deaminase (AID), the enzyme responsible for induction of sequence variation in immunoglobulins (Igs) during the process of somatic hypermutation (SHM) and also Ig class switching, can have a potent mutator phenotype in the development of lymphoma. Using various Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) recombinants, we provide definitive evidence that the viral nuclear protein EBNA3C is essential in EBV-infected primary B cells for the induction of AID mRNA and protein. Using lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs) established with EBV recombinants conditional for EBNA3C function, this was confirmed, and it was shown that transactivation of the AID gene (AICDA) is associated with EBNA3C binding to highly conserved regulatory elements located proximal to and upstream of the AICDA transcription start site. EBNA3C binding initiated epigenetic changes to chromatin at specific sites across the AICDA locus. Deep sequencing of cDNA corresponding to the IgH V-D-J region from the conditional LCL was used to formally show that SHM is activated by functional EBNA3C and induction of AID. These data, showing the direct targeting and induction of functional AID by EBNA3C, suggest a novel role for EBV in the etiology of B cell cancers, including endemic Burkitt lymphoma

Evaluation of early and late presentation of patients with ocular mucous membrane pemphigoid to two major tertiary referral hospitals in the United Kingdom

PURPOSE: Ocular mucous membrane pemphigoid (OcMMP) is a sight-threatening autoimmune disease in which referral to specialists units for further management is a common practise. This study aims to describe referral patterns, disease phenotype and management strategies in patients who present with either early or established disease to two large tertiary care hospitals in the United Kingdom.\ud \ud PATIENTS AND METHODS: In all, 54 consecutive patients with a documented history of OcMMP were followed for 24 months. Two groups were defined: (i) early-onset disease (EOD:<3 years, n=26, 51 eyes) and (ii) established disease (EstD:>5 years, n=24, 48 eyes). Data were captured at first clinic visit, and at 12 and 24 months follow-up. Information regarding duration, activity and stage of disease, visual acuity (VA), therapeutic strategies and clinical outcome were analysed.\ud \ud RESULTS: Patients with EOD were younger and had more severe conjunctival inflammation (76% of inflamed eyes) than the EstD group, who had poorer VA (26.7%=VA<3/60, P<0.01) and more advanced disease. Although 40% of patients were on existing immunosuppression, 48% required initiation or switch to more potent immunotherapy. In all, 28% (14) were referred back to the originating hospitals for continued care. Although inflammation had resolved in 78% (60/77) at 12 months, persistence of inflammation and progression did not differ between the two phenotypes. Importantly, 42% demonstrated disease progression in the absence of clinically detectable inflammation.\ud \ud CONCLUSIONS: These data highlight that irrespective of OcMMP phenotype, initiation or escalation of potent immunosuppression is required at tertiary hospitals. Moreover, the conjunctival scarring progresses even when the eye remains clinically quiescent. Early referral to tertiary centres is recommended to optimise immunosuppression and limit long-term ocular damage.\ud \u

Infection of a yellow baboon with simian immunodeficiency virus from African green monkeys:evidence for cross-species transmission in the wild

Many African primates are known to be naturally infected with simian immunodeficiency viruses (SIVs), but only a fraction of these viruses has been molecularly characterized. One primate species for which only serological evidence of SIV infection has been reported is the yellow baboon (Papio hamadryas cynocephalus). Two wild-living baboons with strong SIVAGM seroreactivity were previously identified in a Tanzanian national park where baboons and African green monkeys shared the same habitat (T. Kodama, D. P. Silva, M. D. Daniel, J. E. Phillips-Conroy, C. J. Jolly, J. Rogers, and R. C. Desrosiers, AIDS Res. Hum. Retroviruses 5:337-343, 1989). To determine the genetic identity of the viruses infecting these animals, we used PCR to examine SIV sequences directly in uncultured leukocyte DNA. Targeting two different, nonoverlapping genomic regions, we amplified and sequenced a 673-bp gag gene fragment and a 908-bp env gene fragment from one of the two baboons. Phylo-genetic analyses revealed that this baboon was infected with an SIVAGM strain of the vervet subtype. These results provide the first direct evidence for simian-to-simian cross-species transmission of SIV in the wild