Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale

From technology pathways to policy roadmaps to enabling measures – A multi-model approach

Integrating a range of complementary energy models is becoming an increasingly common method for informing low carbon energy pathways at both national and global levels. Multi-modelling approaches facilitate improved understanding of the detailed technology pathways required to meet decarbonisation targets; however, to-date there has been limited attention on the policy roadmaps and enabling measures that might achieve these decarbonisation targets. This paper addresses this gap by developing a multi-model approach using an energy systems optimisation model, a sectoral simulation model together with scrutiny of individual policy measures to explore decarbonisation of the private car sector in the Irish transport system commensurate with an 80% reduction in national carbon emissions by 2050. The results comprise a cost optimal technology pathway for private cars in a future energy system constrained by a maximum level of carbon emissions, a policy roadmap identifying annual changes in energy efficiency, renewable energy and electrification, and a suite of enabling measures including changes to vehicle registration tax, a biofuel obligation on suppliers and a suite of measures to increase the share of electric vehicles in the fleet. The level of confidence in the different enabling measures to achieve the policy goals is compared and discussed

Recession or retrofit: An ex-post evaluation of Irish residential space heating trends

Analysis of the technical potential for energy efficiency often highlights very large potential savings; however, the reality of savings achieved often falls far short of this potential. Ex-post analysis is known to be important for quantifying realised energy-efficiency savings, but is often neglected for many reasons. This paper describes an approach to an ex-post analysis that uses readily available administrative data and provides insights into the impact of an energy-efficiency policy measure of residential energy-efficiency retrofitting (upgrades). Ex-post analyses have the advantage of including the impacts of events and behaviours that coincide with energy-efficiency programs and thus facilitate disentangling external influences and avoidance of misattribution of savings. Three different quantitative approaches are used to determine whether the national energy-efficiency retrofit programmes or the economic recession was responsible for the sharp fall in residential space-heating energy demand in Ireland between 2007 and 2012. The analysis finds that while Government energy-efficiency retrofitting programmes have played a role in reducing energy consumption, the biggest influence by far between 2007 and 2012 was the economic recession. The top down decomposition analysis recorded energy savings (including â savingsâ that were due to the recession) that were 3.9 times greater than bottom-up retrofit savings related to residential space-heating measures over the period 2006 â 2012. The analysis highlights that an important policy challenge is to achieve reduced consumption due to behavioural changes while experiencing economic growth

Beyond car efficiency and electrification: Examining the role of demand reduction, public transit, and active travel measures to reduce GHG emissions in transport

This paper applies a data set of passenger kilometre transport demand by trip-purpose, mode type and tripdistance based on the outcomes of a National Travel Survey. The Irish Passenger Transport Emissions and Mobility (IPTEM) model enables a system-wide perspective on various measures which could be introduced to reduce passenger transport emissions. Combined with the LEAP Ireland 2050 energy systems simulation model, the carbon abatement potential of trip-purpose based policies, modal shift policies and technology improvements in public transport can be assessed. The results indicate that significant savings can be achieved from modal shift in Ireland, and that trip-purpose based targets and policies have a relevance in the effort to reduce Ireland’s energy related transport CO2 emissions. The active mode scenarios, which focus on increased walking and cycling achieve a 0.2 – 1 MTCO2 reduction in annual passenger transport emissions in 2030. The range of public transport scenarios, inspired by targets set out by the Irish Government’s Climate Action Plan achieve a between 0.001 – 0.3 MTCO2 reduction in annual passenger transport emissions in 2030. In addition, traffic camera data is used to model the impact of COVID-19 travel restrictions on transport CO2 emissions. The calculated reduction in transport CO2 emissions is 3.9 MTCO2 for 2020 and 2021. This study highlights the importance of factoring modal shift, trip distance and trip purpose into scenario analysis for transport emissions reduction, as it provides a framework for looking beyond only improving technologies in private vehicle transport

The role of carbon budgets in translating the Paris Agreement into national climate policy

Two articles of the Paris Agreement are particularly relevant to countries as they seek to mitigate their impact on global warming. Article 2 sets a target for long-term temperature stabilisation, seeking to hold the increase in global average temperature to “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C”. Article 4 includes a target to “peak greenhouse gases (GHGs) as soon as possible” and thereafter to achieve “rapid reductions” in emissions so that sources of emissions are balanced by sinks (i.e. achieving net zero emissions) in the second half of the 21st century. Despite the ratification of the Paris Agreement, there is no political or scientific consensus on precisely how these targets should be translated into national decarbonisation trajectories. As a result, countries are developing and setting their own carbon reduction strategies in different ways: increasingly, countries are implementing net zero targets for mid-century. Although consistent with Article 4, given the linear relationship between warming and cumulative net emissions of long-lived GHGs, net-zero target dates only specify when temperatures are stabilised, but not at what temperature. To comply with Paris Agreement temperature goals, international and national climate action policy must have regard to cumulative reductions in GHG emissions, not just single year targets. Broadly, this requires a carbon budget approach. In this discussion paper we review some of the ways that a carbon budget approach has been used in climate action policy. One approach is based on developing a so-called Climate Science Carbon Budget derived from a Global Carbon Budget (GCB) associated with a particular temperature goal and an equitable effort-sharing approach to share the GCB. This is contrasted with other approaches including national frameworks for climate policy such as the UK’s net zero emissions by 2050 where the carbon budgets are for a shorter time period (i.e. 5 years). We call this latter approach Climate Policy Carbon Budgets, that is carbon budgets that aren’t derived from a global temperature target, but instead from national decarbonisation trajectories. This discussion paper also explores approaches to developing decarbonisation pathways for Ireland which are consistent with the Paris Agreement using a carbon budget approach. This discussion paper outlines a broad approach to generating a national long-term climate science carbon budget for Ireland and translating it into five-year sectoral carbon budgets. The process for developing such carbon budgets will require an appropriate set of robust energy system modelling tools, that are iteratively developed and examined, together with an extensive stakeholder engagement process. This discussion paper concludes with some reflections on the governance arrangements for setting, monitoring, and reviewing carbon budgets

Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party’s then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80–95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO2 by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5–10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in

Challenging energy engineering undergraduates with diverse perspectives on nuclear power

As part of an introductory energy engineering undergraduate module at University College Cork, student presentations on a zero-carbon energy plan for Ireland have shown a high preference for nuclear energy, despite a complete absence of nuclear energy from the same module curriculum. Nuclear power has never been built or generated in Ireland, is currently illegal, and faces high levels of public opposition. The origins of a high preference for nuclear energy among undergraduate student engineers is therefore unclear. In response to this high preference for, but critically unengaged view of nuclear power, the authors developed a participatory learning activity for first year undergraduate engineering students to engage with a range of maximally different perspectives on nuclear power. Four different perspectives on whether Ireland needs nuclear power were presented to this year’s class: definitely yes; definitely no; maybe yes; maybe no. These perspectives involved a number of different framings of nuclear power and ranged across a spectrum from techno-economic to socio-technical. They emphasised to a greater or lesser degree issues around risk, cost, system impacts, timing, social acceptability, and sustainability. The activity took place in a room divided into four quadrants with each quadrant representing one of the four different perspectives on nuclear power. At the start of activity, students were invited to go to the quadrant that best represented their initial views. Each perspective on nuclear power was then delivered in a short expert presentation by one of the co- authors. Throughout these presentations, students were invited to remain in or move from their quadrant as they were persuaded or not by the arguments advanced. At the start of the activity, an overwhelming majority (96%) of the students indicated a yes preference with the majority of these being maybe yes (79%); at the end of the debate the total yes share had significantly decreased (to 54%), with the largest share of the lost vote moving to the maybe no category which finished at 36% (having started at 0%). Overall, there was a greater distribution of students across all four categories than at the start. Evaluations on the activity format were largely positive. Student reasons for changing their views were mostly socio-technical points specific to Ireland that included the electricity system, overall energy needs, costs and expert availability. Closing reflections introduced the idea of a wicked problem and highlighted the importance of values to questions such as “Should Ireland Go Nuclear”, i.e. avoiding an exclusively narrow scientific framing

A review of approaches to uncertainty assessment in energy system optimization models

Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) have been used extensively in providing insights to decision makers on issues related to climate and energy policy. However, there is a concern that the uncertainties inherent in the model structures and input parameters are at best underplayed and at worst ignored. Compared to other types of energy models, ESOMs tend to use scenarios to handle uncertainties or treat them as a marginal issue. Without adequately addressing uncertainties, the model insights may be limited, lack robustness, and may mislead decision makers. This paper provides an in-depth review of systematic techniques that address uncertainties for ESOMs. We have identified four prevailing uncertainty approaches that have been applied to ESOM type models: Monte Carlo analysis, stochastic programming, robust optimization, and modelling to generate alternatives. For each method, we review the principles, techniques, and how they are utilized to improve the robustness of the model results to provide extra policy insights. In the end, we provide a critical appraisal on the use of these methods

Innovative methods of community engagement: towards a low carbon climate resilient future

The proceedings of the Innovative Methods of Community Engagement: Toward a Low Carbon, Climate Resilient Future workshop have been developed by the Imagining2050 team in UCC and the Secretariat to the National Dialogue on Climate Action (NDCA). The NDCA also funded the workshop running costs. The proceedings offer a set of recommendations and insights into leveraging different community engagement approaches and methodologies in the area of climate action. They draw from interdisciplinary knowledge and experiences of researchers for identifying, mobilizing and mediating communities. The work presented below derives from a workshop held in the Environmental Research Institute in UCC on the 17th January 2019. These proceedings are complementary to an earlier workshop also funded by the NDCA and run by MaREI in UCC, titled ‘How do we Engage Communities in Climate Action? – Practical Learnings from the Coal Face’. The earlier workshop looked more closely at community development groups and other non-statutory organizations doing work in the area of climate change