Identifying influencers in a social network : the value of real referral data

Individuals influence each other through social interactions and marketers aim to leverage this interpersonal influence to attract new customers. It still remains a challenge to identify those customers in a social network that have the most influence on their social connections. A common approach to the influence maximization problem is to simulate influence cascades through the network based on the existence of links in the network using diffusion models. Our study contributes to the literature by evaluating these principles using real-life referral behaviour data. A new ranking metric, called Referral Rank, is introduced that builds on the game theoretic concept of the Shapley value for assigning each individual in the network a value that reflects the likelihood of referring new customers. We also explore whether these methods can be further improved by looking beyond the one-hop neighbourhood of the influencers. Experiments on a large telecommunication data set and referral data set demonstrate that using traditional simulation based methods to identify influencers in a social network can lead to suboptimal decisions as the results overestimate actual referral cascades. We also find that looking at the influence of the two-hop neighbours of the customers improves the influence spread and product adoption. Our findings suggest that companies can take two actions to improve their decision support system for identifying influential customers: (1) improve the data by incorporating data that reflects the actual referral behaviour of the customers or (2) extend the method by looking at the influence of the connections in the two-hop neighbourhood of the customers

Social ties in customer referral programs

Customer referral programs are marketing programs in which existing customers are rewarded for bringing in new customers. The aim is to attract new customers by leveraging the social connections of existing customers with potential customers. Previous research has shown that referred customers are more valuable to a firm than non-referred customers. However, previous research solely focused on the customer lifetimevalueofthenewlyreferredcustomersanddoesnotlookatthe social network characteristics. A study by Kumar et al. (2010) argues that we shouldconsider two parts of customer value, namelycustomer lifetimevalueandcustomerreferralvalue. Thelattercanbeconceived as a customer’s potential to grow the network through referrals. Early work by Granovetter (1973) highlights the importance of weak social connections, like acquaintances, in a network due to their position as bridges, connecting different communities. Extending this knowledge to customer referral programs, we can argue that referrals over weak links are powerful for accessing new communities. In this study, we investigatetheeffectofreferralsandthetiestrengthbetweentheexistingandpotentialcustomerontheresultinggrowthofthenetwork. The finding of this study are particularly useful for start-ups or marketing campaigns aiming to grow the customer base

A nationwide population-based cohort study of peripartum hysterectomy and arterial embolisation in Belgium: results from the Belgian Obstetric Surveillance System

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence of major obstetric haemorrhage managed with peripartum hysterectomy and/or interventional radiology (IR) in Belgium. To describe women characteristics, the circumstances in which the interventions took place, the management of the obstetric haemorrhage, the outcome and additional morbidity of these women. DESIGN: Nationwide population-based prospective cohort study. SETTING: Emergency obstetric care. Participation of 97% of maternities covering 98.6% of deliveries in Belgium. PARTICIPANTS: All women who underwent peripartum hysterectomy and/or IR procedures in Belgium between January 2012 and December 2013. RESULTS: We obtained data on 166 women who underwent peripartum hysterectomy (n=84) and/or IR procedures (n=102), corresponding to 1 in 3030 women undergoing a peripartum hysterectomy and another 1 in 3030 women being managed by IR, thereby preserving the uterus. Seventeen women underwent hysterectomy following IR and three women needed further IR despite hysterectomy. Abnormal placentation and/or uterine atony were the reported causes of haemorrhage in 83.7%. Abnormally invasive placenta was not detected antenatally in 34% of cases. The interventions were planned in 15 women. Three women were transferred antenatally and 17 women postnatally to a hospital with emergency IR service. Urgent peripartum hysterectomy was averted in 72% of the women who were transferred, with no significant difference in need for transfusion. IR procedures were able to stop the bleeding in 87.8% of the attempts. Disseminated intravascular coagulation secondary to major haemorrhage was reported in 32 women (19%). CONCLUSION: The prevalence in Belgium of major obstetric haemorrhage requiring peripartum hysterectomy and/or IR is estimated at 6.6 (95% CI 5.7 to 7.7) per 10 000 deliveries. Increased clinician awareness of the risk factors of abnormal placentation could further improve the management and outcome of major obstetric haemorrhage. A case-by-case in-depth analysis is necessary to reveal whether the hysterectomies and arterial embolisations performed in this study were appropriate or preventable.status: publishe

A nationwide population-based cohort study of peripartum hysterectomy and arterial embolisation in Belgium: results from the Belgian Obstetric Surveillance System.

To assess the prevalence of major obstetric haemorrhage managed with peripartum hysterectomy and/or interventional radiology (IR) in Belgium. To describe women characteristics, the circumstances in which the interventions took place, the management of the obstetric haemorrhage, the outcome and additional morbidity of these women.SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

PRRT2 mutations: exploring the phenotypical boundaries

Mutations in the proline-rich transmembrane protein 2 (PRRT2) gene have been identified in patients with benign (familial) infantile convulsions (B(F)IC), infantile convulsions with choreoathetosis (ICCA) and paroxysmal dyskinesias (PDs). However it remains unknown whether PRRT2 mutations are causal in other epilepsy syndromes. After we discovered a PRRT2 mutation in a large family with ICCA containing one individual with febrile seizures (FS) and one individual with West syndrome, we analysed PRRT2 in a heterogeneous cohort of patients with different types of infantile epilepsy.status: publishe