Ampliación y Mejora del Laboratorio Virtual de Meteorología y Clima

Depto. de Física de la Tierra y AstrofísicaFac. de Ciencias FísicasFALSEsubmitte

Explosive cyclones in the North Atlantic: NAO influence and multidecadal variability

Ponencia presentada en: VIII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Salamanca entre el 25 y el 28 de septiembre de 2012.[EN]In this study we have analyzed the variability of explosive cyclones affecting Europe at different timescales. Cyclones have been identified and tracked through an automatic algorithm that has been applied to the MSLP NCEP reanalysis data. Subsequently, explosive cyclones affecting Europe have been selected from the whole climatology of extratropical North Atlantic cyclones (406 total cases from Oct-Mar 1950-2010).[ES]En este estudio se ha analizado la variabilidad en diferentes escalas temporales de las ciclogénesis explosivas que afectan Europa. La identificación y seguimiento de ciclones se ha realizado a través de la utilización de un algoritmo automático aplicado sobre los datos de MSLP del reanálisis de NCEP. En total, 406 casos de ciclogénesis explosivas que han afectado Europa han sido seleccionados (Oct-Mar 1950-2010).This study has been partially supported by the Spanish National projects DE VIAJE (CGL2009-06944), TRACS (CGL2009-10285) and the UCM-BSCH GR58/08 “Micrometeorology and Climate variability” group

The impact of large-scale circulation patterns on summer crop in Iberian Peninsula

Large-scale circulations patterns (ENSO, NAO) have been shown to have a significant impact on seasonal weather, and therefore on crop yield over many parts of the world(Garnett and Khandekar, 1992; Aasa et al., 2004; Rozas and Garcia-Gonzalez, 2012). In this study, we analyze the influence of large-scale circulation patterns and regional climate on the principal components of maize yield variability in Iberian Peninsula (IP) using reanalysis datasets. Additionally, we investigate the modulation of these relationships by multidecadal patterns. This study is performed analyzing long time series of maize yield, only climate dependent, computed with the crop model CERES-maize (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5)

Dynamical influences of El Niño on maize yield in Spain

Climate variability and changes in the frequency of extremes events have a direct impact on crop damages and yield. In a former work of Capa et al. (2013) the crop yield variability has been studied using different reanalyses datasets with the aim of extending the time series of potential yield. The reliability of these time series have been checked using observational data. The influence of the sea surface temperature on the crop yield variability has been studied, finding a relation with El Niño phenomenon. The highest correlation between El Niño and yield was during 1960-1980. This study aims to analyse the dynamical mechanism of El Niño impacts on maize yield in Spain during 1960-1980 by comparison with atmospheric circulation patterns

Modes of variability affecting southwestern Europe

Special Issue on climate over the Iberian Peninsula: an overview of CLIVAR-Spain coordinated science

Influencia de El Niño en la precipitación del País Vasco

Ponencia presentada en: XXXIV Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XVII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Teruel, del 29 de febrero al 2 de marzo de 2016

Influencia de El Niño en el País Vasco

Ponencia presentada en: XXXV Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XIX Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en León, del 5 al 7 de marzo de 2018.La región norte de la Península Ibérica aparece como un área de transición en la teleconexión de El Niño con la variabilidad climática en Europa (López-Parages and Rodríguez-Fonseca 2012) y ha sido ,por tanto, poco estudiada. Este trabajo se centra en el análisis de la temperatura máxima (Tmax), mínima (Tmin) y la precipitación (Rf) en dicha región, así como de la influencia de ENSO en su variabilidad. Los principales resultados de este estudio muestran correlación estadísticamente significativa entre todas las variables analizadas (Tmax, Tmin y Rf) y los diferentes índices de El Niño, en prácticamente todas las estaciones del año y en diferentes periodos (Fig. 1). Es el verano (julio, agosto septiembre, JAS) la estación en la que las correlaciones parecen ser más elevadas (superiores a 0.5) en los primeros años de estudio en el caso de las Tmax y las Tmin, mientras que en el caso de la Rf el periodo de años con correlación elevada abarca prácticamente todo el de estudio

Potential SST drivers for Chlorophyll-a variability in the Alboran Sea: a source for seasonal predictabilty?

This study investigates the link between large-scale variability modes of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and the surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration in spring along the northern flank of the Alboran Sea. To this aim, surface satellite-derived products of SST and Chl-a, together with atmospheric satellite variables, are used. Our results indicate that both the tropical North Atlantic and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could trigger the development of anomalous distribution patterns of Chl-a in spring in northern Alboran. This anomalous feature of Chl-a is, in turn, associated with the alteration of the usual upwelling taking place along the Spanish coast at that time of the year (Ramírez et al., 2005; Macías et al., 2007; Lazzari et al., 2011). The skill of the related SST signals, over the tropical North Atlantic and the tropical Pacific, as predictors of the aforementioned Chl-a response in Alboran, has been also assessed through a statistical prediction model with leave-one-out crossvalidation. While the skill of the tropical North Atlantic seems to be limited, the results identified confirm the predictive skill of ENSO to realistically estimate the Chl-a response in Alboran. In particular, during El Niño/La Niña years, this Chl-a response can be robustly predicted with 4 months in advance. Furthermore, in those years when the tropical North Atlantic signal precedes ENSO, the Chl-a response can be also reasonably well predicted. This would enhance, for specific years, the predictive horizon to at least 7 months. The results presented here could contribute to develop a future seasonal forecasting tool of upwelling variability and living marine resources in northern Alboran.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tec

Multidecadal Modulation of ENSO Teleconnection with Europe in Late Winter: Analysis of CMIP5 Models

Many studies point to a robust ENSO signature on the North Atlantic–European (NAE) sector associated with a downstream effect of Rossby wave trains. Some of these works also address a nonstationary behavior of the aforementioned link, but only few have explored the possible modulating factors. In this study the internal causes within the ocean–atmosphere coupled system influencing the tropospheric ENSO–Euro-Mediterranean rainfall teleconnection have been analyzed. To this aim, unforced long-term preindustrial control simulations from 18 different CMIP5 models have been used. A nonstationary impact of ENSO on Euro-Mediterranean rainfall, being spatially consistent with the observational one, is found. This variable feature is explained by a changing ENSO-related Rossby wave propagation from the tropical Pacific to the NAE sector, which, in turn, is modulated by multidecadal variability of the climatological jet streams associated with the underlying sea surface temperature (SST). The results, therefore, indicate a modulation of the ENSO–Euro-Mediterranean rainfall teleconnection by the internal (and multidecadal) variability of the ocean–atmosphere coupled system.This study was supported by the European project PREFACE (603521), and the Spanish projects TRACS (CGL2009-10285) and MULCLIVAR (CGL2012- 38923-C02-01).Peer reviewe

Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979–2002). Part I: Time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall

This work presents a description of the 1979–2002 tropical Atlantic (TA) SST variability modes coupled to the anomalous West African (WA) rainfall during the monsoon season. The time-evolving SST patterns, with an impact on WA rainfall variability, are analyzed using a new methodology based on maximum covariance analysis. The enhanced Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) dataset, which includes measures over the ocean, gives a complete picture of the interannual WA rainfall patterns for the Sahel dry period. The leading TA SST pattern, related to the Atlantic El Niño, is coupled to anomalous precipitation over the coast of the Gulf of Guinea, which corresponds to the second WA rainfall principal component. The thermodynamics and dynamics involved in the generation, development, and damping of this mode are studied and compared with previous works. The SST mode starts at the Angola/Benguela region and is caused by alongshore wind anomalies. It then propagates westward via Rossby waves and damps because of latent heat flux anomalies and Kelvin wave eastward propagation from an off-equatorial forcing. The second SST mode includes the Mediterranean and the Atlantic Ocean, showing how the Mediterranean SST anomalies are those that are directly associated with the Sahelian rainfall. The global signature of the TA SST patterns is analyzed, adding new insights about the Pacific– Atlantic link in relation to WA rainfall during this period. Also, this global picture suggests that the Mediterranean SST anomalies are a fingerprint of large-scale forcing. This work updates the results given by other authors, whose studies are based on different datasets dating back to the 1950s, including both the wet and the dry Sahel periods