Market Efficiency within the German Stock Market: A Comparative Study of the Relative Efficiencies of the DAX, MDAX, SDAX and ASE Indices

It can be implied from the efficient market hypothesis that the more transparent a market is, then the more likely that the market will be efficient. This paper is a study of whether the different transparency standards applied to the different indices quoted on the German stock market have any impact on their relative efficiencies. It is found that the differences in transparency standards do have an impact on market efficiency. The case for a higher level of market efficiency in respect to Prime Standard index stocks is reinforced by the additional finding that calendar anomaly effects appear to have only limited statistical significance.Market Efficiency, Calendar Anomalies, DAX, Transparency Requirements

"Whither the Middle Class'? A Dynamic View"

Research using cross-sectional survey 'snapshots' of household income taken over the past quarter century reveals a growing inequality in the distribution of annual money income of households in the United States (Thurow, 1987; Levy, 1987; Levy and Michel, 1991; Michel, 1991; Karoly, 1990; Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 1990; Easterlin, MacDonald and Macunovich, 1990), prompting some to argue that the U.S. middle class is disappearing (Phillips, 1990; Bradbury, 1986). Aggregate data from the National Accounts and from wealth surveys (Wolff, 1989; Eargle, 1991) reinforce this conclusion by showing a growing share of income from capital, a falling share for earnings, and a slightly increasing concentration of wealth among upper-income groups. Also well-documented is greater inequality in the size distribution of earnings and wages in the late 1980s as compared to one or two decades before (GottschaLk and Danziger, 1989; Burtless, 1989; Blackbum et al., this volume). Despite the consistency of these results, their almost universal reliance on data drawn from cross-sectional snapshots leaves unanswered many important questions regarding the nature of the changes taking place in the distribution of income and wealth. Most importantly, cross-sectional snapshots provide information only on net changes in economic position and thus reveal little about the extent and nature of movement into and out of the middle class.. Are increasing numbers of families 'falling from grace', as Katherine Newman (1988) puts it? If so, who are they and what events are linked to their income losses? Or is mobility into the middle class declining? And, if so, does this affect in particular young families? What avenues for upward mobility are disappearing? These are the types of questions we seek to address for adults crossing either the lower or the upper boundary of the middle class. A second set of issues we address involves linkages between changes in income and changes in wealth. We analyze trends in the transitions of prime age (25-54 years old) adults into and out of the middle class using 22 years of data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We begin by reviewing the methodology and measurement procedures that we employ to define the middle class and transitions into and out of middle-class status. Next we present our basic findings which, in fact, show a persistent 'withering' of the middle class since about 1980. We then search for clues as to who moved into and out of the middle-income groups and the source of such changes. Because notions of 'class' are usually based on measures of wealth as well as income, we also investigate longitudinal changes in the wealth distribution in the 1980s for these same individuals. Our findings on wealth reinforce those based on income. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the policy implications of our findings.

Forecasting the Jordanian stock index: modelling asymmetric volatility and distribution effects within a GARCH framework

The modelling of market returns can be especially problematical in emerging and frontier financial markets given the propensity of their returns to exhibit significant non-normality and volatility asymmetries. This paper attempts to identify which representations within the GARCH family of models can most efficiently deal with these issues. A number of different distributions (normal, Student t, GED and skewed Student) and different volatility of returns asymmetry representations (EGARCH and GJR- -GARCH) are examined. Our data set consists of daily Jordanian stock market returns over the period January 2000 – November 2014. Using both the Superior Predicative Ability (SPA) and Model Confidence Set (MCS) testing frameworks it is found that using GJR-GARCH with a skewed Student distribution most accurately and efficiently forecasts Jordanian market movements. Our findings are consistent with similar research undertaken in respect to developed markets.</p

Timing of extension in the Pioneer metamorphic core complex with implications for the spatial-temporal pattern of Cenozoic extension and exhumation in the northern U.S. Cordillera

The Pioneer core complex (PCC) in central Idaho lies along a transition between Early Eocene and ca. 40 Ma core complexes to the north and south, respectively. Thus, the age of extensional development of the PCC is important in understanding the spatial-temporal patterns of core-complex development in the North American Cordillera. New results, including structural observations and U-Pb zircon (SHRIMP and ICPMS) geochronology, constrain the early extensional history of the footwall for the first time. High-temperature strain with a top-WNW shear-sense is pervasive throughout metamorphic rocks of the northwestern footwall. An isoclinally folded dike yields a crystallization age of ∼48-47 Ma, whereas a crosscutting dike yielded an age of 46 Ma. Metamorphic rocks are also intruded by the ∼50-48 Ma Pioneer intrusive suite (PIS), a W-dipping granodiorite sheet displaying a magmatic fabric. Northwest-trending lineations are locally visible and also defined by anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility, indicating that during emplacement, the PIS was undergoing similarly oriented extensional strain as the enclosing metamorphic rocks. Therefore, WNW-directed extension spanning this structural section occurred between ∼50 and 46 Ma. Following emplacement of crosscutting 46 Ma dikes, deformation was partitioned into the WNW-directed Wildhorse detachment. Motion on the detachment occurred between ∼38 and 33 Ma, as documented by previous 40Ar/ 39Ar thermochronology. It is not clear, however, whether extension was continuous through the interval between these two time periods. Although Early Eocene extension in the PCC was synchronous with extension in core complexes to the north, rates of footwall exhumation in central Idaho were much lower. This southward slowing is compatible with N-S differences in inferred subduction zone geometry/kinematics and in the internal character of the orogenic wedge

W(h)ither the Middle Class? A Dynamic View

A constant theme throughout the history of the U.S. has been the growth of the middle class and the promise of its growth for the elimination of poverty. By the late 1980s, social analysts sensed a decline in the size of the American middle class which later was verified through cross-section analysis of wage and salary and income distribution data. Using time series from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics for prime-age males, this study moves beyond verification of the shrinking of the middle class. The analysis examines changes in both income and wealth and finds that wealth increases reinforced income changes at the upper end of the distribution while for low-income households, real earnings have stagnated. The analysis also finds that demographics and cyclical factors account for little of the shrinkage of the middle class, although, cyclical factors in the late 1980s reduced the upward mobility of lower-income households and increased the downward mobility of many in the lower range of the middle of the income distribution. This coupled with the gains to upper income households generated by the 1986 Federal Tax Reform enlarged the number of households at both ends of the income distribution at the expense of the middle class. Moreover, the authors find that prime-age adults who began the 1980s in the middle-income category had a greater probability of falling to the lower class than of rising to the upper class

Plasticity to ocean warming is influenced by transgenerational, reproductive, and developmental exposure in a coral reef fish

Global warming is expected to drive some ectothermic species beyond their thermal tolerance in upcoming decades. Phenotypic plasticity, via developmental or transgenerational acclimation, is a critical mechanism for compensation in the face of environmental change. Yet, it remains to be determined if the activation of beneficial phenotypes requires direct exposure throughout development, or if compensation can be obtained just through the experience of previous generations. In this study, we exposed three generations of a tropical damselfish to combinations of current-day (Control) and projected future (+1.5°C) water temperatures. Acclimation was evaluated with phenotypic (oxygen consumption, hepatosomatic index, physical condition) and molecular (liver gene expression) measurements of third-generation juveniles. Exposure of grandparents/parents to warm conditions improved the aerobic capacity of fish regardless of thermal conditions experienced afterwards, representing a true transgenerational effect. This coincided with patterns of gene expression related to inflammation and immunity seen in the third generation. Parental effects due to reproductive temperature significantly affected the physical condition and routine metabolic rate (oxygen consumption) of offspring, but had little impact on gene expression of the F3. Developmental temperature of juveniles, and whether they matched conditions during parental reproduction, had the largest influence on the liver transcriptional program. Using a combination of both phenotypic and molecular approaches, this study highlights how the conditions experienced by both previous and current generations can influence plasticity to global warming in upcoming decades

Pluto Integrated Camera-Spectrometer (PICS): A Low Mass, Low Power Instrument for Planetary Exploration

The concept we describe is an integrated instrument (a Pluto Integrated Camera Spectrometer, PICS) that will perform the functions of all three optical instruments required by the Pluto Fast Flyby Mission: the near-IR spectrometer, the camera, and the UV spectrometer. This integrated approach minimizes mass and power use. It also forced us early in the conceptual design to consider integrated observational sequences and integrated power management, thus ensuring compatible duty cycles (i.e. exposure times, readout rates) to meet the composite requirements for data collection, compression, and storage. Based on flight mission experience we believe that this integrated approach will result in substantial cost savings, both in reworking instrument designs during accommodation, as well as in sequence planning and integration. Finally, this integrated payload automatically yields a cohesive mission data set, optimized for correlative analysis. In our baseline concept, a single set of lightweight, multi-wavelength foreoptics is shared by an UV imaging spectrometer (160 spectral channels 10-150 nm), a two-CCD visible imaging system (simultaneously shuttered in two colors 300-500 nm and 500-1000 nm), and a near-IR imaging spectrometer (256 spectral channels 1300-2600 nm), The entire structure and optics is built from SiC, and includes an integrated radiator for thermal control. The design has no moving parts and each spectrometer covers a single octave in wavelength. For the Pluto mission, a separate port (aligned in a direction compatible with the radio occultation experiment) is provided for PICS measurement of a UV solar occultation and for spectral radiance calibration of the IR and visible subsystems. The integrated science this instrument will yield meets or exceeds all of the Priority-1A science objectives and captures many Priority-1B science objectives as well. The presentation will provide details of the PICS instrument design and describe the fabrication and testing of the integrated SiC structure and optics at SSG Inc. Final integration and test plans for the prototype will also be described