Concept of Operations for Nuclear Warhead Embedded Sensors

Embedded arms-control-sensors provide a powerful new paradigm for managing compliance with future nuclear weapons treaties, where deployed warhead numbers will be reduced to 1000 or less. The CONOPS (Concept of Operations) for use with these sensors is a practical tool with which one may help define design parameters, including size, power, resolution, communications, and physical structure. How frequently must data be acquired and must a human be present? Will such data be acquired for only stored weapons or will it be required of deployed weapons as well? Will tactical weapons be subject to such monitoring or will only strategic weapons apply? Which data will be most crucial? Will OSI's be a component of embedded sensor data management or will these sensors stand alone in their data extraction processes? The problem space is massive, but can be constrained by extrapolating to a reasonable future treaty regime and examining the bounded options this scenario poses. Arms control verification sensors, embedded within the warhead case or aeroshell, must provide sufficient but not excessively detailed data, confirming that the item is a nuclear warhead and that it is a particular warhead without revealing sensitive information. Geolocation will be provided by an intermediate transceiver used to acquire the data and to forward the data to a central processing location. Past Chain-of-Custody projects have included such devices and will be primarily responsible for adding such indicators in the future. For the purposes of a treaty regime a TLI will be verified as a nuclear warhead by knowledge of (a) the presence and mass of SNM, (b) the presence of HE, and (c) the reporting of a unique tag ID. All of these parameters can be obtained via neutron correlation measurements, Raman spectroscopy, and fiber optic grating fabrication, respectively. Data from these sensors will be pushed out monthly and acquired nearly daily, providing one of several verification layers in depth, including on-site inspections, NTM, declarations, and semi-annual BCC meetings. Human intervention will not be necessary. The sheer numbers, small size, and wide distribution of warhead TLIs will mandate the added level of remote monitoring that Embedded Sensors can provide. This multilayer protection will limit the need to increase the frequency of OSIs, by adding confidence that declared TLIs remain as declared and that no undeclared items enter the regime without the other States Party's knowledge. Acceptance of Embedded arms control Sensor technologies will require joint development by all State's Parties involved. Principles of operation and robustness of technologies must be individually evaluated to sustain confidence in the strength of this system against attack. Weapons designers must be assured that these sensors will in no way impact weapon performance and operation, will not affect weapons security and safety, and will have a neutral impact upon weapon system surety. Each State's Party will need to conduct an in depth review of their weapons lifecycle to determine where moves may be reduced to minimize vulnerabilities and where random selection may be used to minimize the ability to make undeclared changes. In the end Verification is a political measure, not a technical one. If the potential users can gain sufficient confidence in the application of Embedded arms control Sensors, they could constitute the final layer of glue to hold together the next Nuclear Arms Control agreement

Nonchaotic Stagnant Motion in a Marginal Quasiperiodic Gradient System

A one-dimensional dynamical system with a marginal quasiperiodic gradient is presented as a mathematical extension of a nonuniform oscillator. The system exhibits a nonchaotic stagnant motion, which is reminiscent of intermittent chaos. In fact, the density function of residence times near stagnation points obeys an inverse-square law, due to a mechanism similar to type-I intermittency. However, unlike intermittent chaos, in which the alternation between long stagnant phases and rapid moving phases occurs in a random manner, here the alternation occurs in a quasiperiodic manner. In particular, in case of a gradient with the golden ratio, the renewal of the largest residence time occurs at positions corresponding to the Fibonacci sequence. Finally, the asymptotic long-time behavior, in the form of a nested logarithm, is theoretically derived. Compared with the Pomeau-Manneville intermittency, a significant difference in the relaxation property of the long-time average of the dynamical variable is found.Comment: 11pages, 5figure

A 4-D dataset for validation of crystal growth in a complex three-phase material, ice cream

Four dimensional (4D, or 3D plus time) X-ray tomographic imaging of phase changes in materials is quickly becoming an accepted tool for quantifying the development of microstructures to both inform and validate models. However, most of the systems studied have been relatively simple binary compositions with only two phases. In this study we present a quantitative dataset of the phase evolution in a complex three-phase material, ice cream. The microstructure of ice cream is an important parameter in terms of sensorial perception, and therefore quantification and modelling of the evolution of the microstructure with time and temperature is key to understanding its fabrication and storage. The microstructure consists of three phases, air cells, ice crystals, and unfrozen matrix. We perform in situ synchrotron X-ray imaging of ice cream samples using in-line phase contrast tomography, housed within a purpose built cold-stage (-40 to +20oC) with finely controlled variation in specimen temperature. The size and distribution of ice crystals and air cells during programmed temperature cycling are determined using 3D quantification. The microstructural evolution of three-phase materials has many other important applications ranging from biological to structural and functional material, hence this dataset can act as a validation case for numerical investigations on faceted and non-faceted crystal growth in a range of materials

Characterization of an ultradense reproducible Z pinch

The apparent complexity of the laser‐plasma coupling in laser fusion target irradiation has stimulated the need for carefully controlled experimental studies of the laser‐plasma interaction at the critical surface. A helium Z pinch has been constructed which produces a high density plasma, independent of the laser, enabling the separation of the laser‐plasma interaction physics from the plasma formation mechanism. Its peak electron density (4×1019 cm−3), critical density scale length (70–200 μ), and temperature (∼25 eV) make it suitable for simulating and studying laser‐pellet interaction mechanisms at CO2 laser wavelengths. Detailed numerical modelling of these experiments was employed as a check against our diagnostics, as well as providing physical insight in those ranges of experimental parameters where measurements were not made.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/70116/2/APPLAB-31-12-801-1.pd

Investigating the drivers of the spatio-temporal patterns of genetic differences between Plasmodium falciparum malaria infections in Kilifi County, Kenya

Knowledge of how malaria infections spread locally is important both for the design of targeted interventions aiming to interrupt malaria transmission and the design of trials to assess the interventions. A previous analysis of 1602 genotyped Plasmodium falciparum parasites in Kilifi, Kenya collected over 12 years found an interaction between time and geographic distance: the mean number of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) differences was lower for pairs of infections which were both a shorter time interval and shorter geographic distance apart. We determine whether the empiric pattern could be reproduced by a simple model, and what mean geographic distances between parent and offspring infections and hypotheses about genotype-specific immunity or a limit on the number of infections would be consistent with the data. We developed an individual-based stochastic simulation model of households, people and infections. We parameterized the model for the total number of infections, and population and household density observed in Kilifi. The acquisition of new infections, mutation, recombination, geographic location and clearance were included. We fit the model to the observed numbers of SNP differences between pairs of parasite genotypes. The patterns observed in the empiric data could be reproduced. Although we cannot rule out genotype-specific immunity or a limit on the number of infections per individual, they are not necessary to account for the observed patterns. The mean geographic distance between parent and offspring malaria infections for the base model was 0.5 km (95% CI 0.3-1.5), for a distribution with 68% of distances shorter than the mean. Very short mean distances did not fit well, but mixtures of distributions were also consistent with the data. For a pathogen which undergoes meiosis in a setting with moderate transmission and a low coverage of infections, analytic methods are limited but an individual-based model can be used with genotyping data to estimate parameter values and investigate hypotheses about underlying processes

Time-resolved tomographic quantification of the microstructural evolution of ice cream

Ice cream is a complex multi-phase colloidal soft-solid and its three-dimensional microstructure plays a critical role in determining the oral sensory experience or mouthfeel. Using in-line phase contrast synchrotron X-ray tomography, we capture the rapid evolution of the ice cream microstructure during heat shock conditions in situ and operando, on a time scale of minutes. The further evolution of the ice cream microstructure during storage and abuse was captured using ex situ tomography on a time scale of days. The morphology of the ice crystals and unfrozen matrix during these thermal cycles was quantified as an indicator for the texture and oral sensory perception. Our results reveal that the coarsening is due to both Ostwald ripening and physical agglomeration, enhancing our understanding of the microstructural evolution of ice cream during both manufacturing and storage. The microstructural evolution of this complex material was quantified, providing new insights into the behavior of soft-solids and semi-solids, including many foodstuffs, and invaluable data to both inform and validate models of their processing

Revealing dendritic pattern formation in Ni, Fe and Co alloys using synchrotron tomography

The microstructural patterns formed during liquid to solid phase transformations control the properties of a wide range of materials. We developed a novel methodology that allows in situ quantification of the microstructures formed during solidification of high temperature advanced alloys. The patterns formed are captured in 4D (3D plus time) using a methodology which exploits three separate advances: a bespoke high temperature environment cell; the development of high X-ray contrast alloys; and a novel environmental encapsulation system. This methodology is demonstrated on Ni, Fe, and Co advanced alloy systems, revealing dendritic pattern formation. We present detailed quantification of microstructural pattern evolution in a novel high attenuation contrast Co-Hf alloy, including microstructural patterning and dendrite tip velocity. The images are quantified to provide 4D experimental data of growth and coarsening mechanisms in Co alloys, which are used for a range of applications from energy to aerospace

Recurrence and algorithmic information

In this paper we initiate a somewhat detailed investigation of the relationships between quantitative recurrence indicators and algorithmic complexity of orbits in weakly chaotic dynamical systems. We mainly focus on examples.Comment: 26 pages, no figure

Whole genome sequencing of Plasmodium falciparum from dried blood spots using selective whole genome amplification

BACKGROUND: Translating genomic technologies into healthcare applications for the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum has been limited by the technical and logistical difficulties of obtaining high quality clinical samples from the field. Sampling by dried blood spot (DBS) finger-pricks can be performed safely and efficiently with minimal resource and storage requirements compared with venous blood (VB). Here, the use of selective whole genome amplification (sWGA) to sequence the P. falciparum genome from clinical DBS samples was evaluated, and the results compared with current methods that use leucodepleted VB. METHODS: Parasite DNA with high (>95%) human DNA contamination was selectively amplified by Phi29 polymerase using short oligonucleotide probes of 8-12 mers as primers. These primers were selected on the basis of their differential frequency of binding the desired (P. falciparum DNA) and contaminating (human) genomes. RESULTS: Using sWGA method, clinical samples from 156 malaria patients, including 120 paired samples for head-to-head comparison of DBS and leucodepleted VB were sequenced. Greater than 18-fold enrichment of P. falciparum DNA was achieved from DBS extracts. The parasitaemia threshold to achieve >5× coverage for 50% of the genome was 0.03% (40 parasites per 200 white blood cells). Over 99% SNP concordance between VB and DBS samples was achieved after excluding missing calls. CONCLUSION: The sWGA methods described here provide a reliable and scalable way of generating P. falciparum genome sequence data from DBS samples. The current data indicate that it will be possible to get good quality sequence on most if not all drug resistance loci from the majority of symptomatic malaria patients. This technique overcomes a major limiting factor in P. falciparum genome sequencing from field samples, and paves the way for large-scale epidemiological applications