The use of a bayesian hierarchy to develop and validate a co-morbidity score to predict mortality for linked primary and secondary care data from the NHS in England

Background: We have assessed whether the linkage between routine primary and secondary care records provided an opportunity to develop an improved population based co-morbidity score with the combined information on co-morbidities from both health care settings. Methods: We extracted all people older than 20 years at the start of 2005 within the linkage between the Hospital Episodes Statistics, Clinical Practice Research Datalink, and Office for National Statistics death register in England. A random 50% sample was used to identify relevant diagnostic codes using a Bayesian hierarchy to share information between similar Read and ICD 10 code groupings. Internal validation of the score was performed in the remaining 50% and discrimination was assessed using Harrell’s C statistic. Comparisons were made over time, age, and consultation rate with the Charlson and Elixhauser indexes. Results: 657,264 people were followed up from the 1st January 2005. 98 groupings of codes were derived from the Bayesian hierarchy, and 37 had an adjusted weighting of greater than zero in the Cox proportional hazards model. 11 of these groupings had a different weighting dependent on whether they were coded from hospital or primary care. The C statistic reduced from 0.88 (95% confidence interval 0.88–0.88) in the first year of follow up, to 0.85 (0.85–0.85) including all 5 years. When we stratified the linked score by consultation rate the association with mortality remained consistent, but there was a significant interaction with age, with improved discrimination and fit in those under 50 years old (C=0.85, 0.83–0.87) compared to the Charlson (C=0.79, 0.77–0.82) or Elixhauser index (C=0.81, 0.79–0.83). Conclusions: The use of linked population based primary and secondary care data developed a co-morbidity score that had improved discrimination, particularly in younger age groups, and had a greater effect when adjusting for co-morbidity than existing scores

Laparoscopic Colorectal Surgery Outcomes Improved After National Training Program (LAPCO) for Specialists in England

OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of The National Training Programme for Laparoscopic Colorectal Surgery (Lapco) on the rate of laparoscopic surgery and clinical outcomes of cases performed by Lapco surgeons after completion of training.SUMMERY BACKGROUND DATA: Lapco provided competency-based supervised clinical training for specialist colorectal surgeons in England.METHODS: We compared the rate of laparoscopic surgery, mortality and morbidity for colorectal cancer resections by Lapco delegates and non-Lapco surgeons in 3-year periods preceding and following Lapco using difference in differences analysis. The changes in the rate of post-Lapco laparoscopic surgery with the Lapco sign-off competency assessment and in-training global assessment scores were examined using risk-adjusted cumulative sum to determine their predictive clinical validity with predefined competent scores of 3 and 5 respectively.RESULTS: 108 Lapco delegates performed 4586 elective colorectal resections pre-Lapco and 5115 post-Lapco while non-Lapco surgeons performed 72930 matched cases. Lapco delegates had a 37.8% increase in laparoscopic surgery which was greater than non-Lapco surgeons by 20.9% (95% CI, 18.5 to 23.3, p [less than] 0.001) with a relative decrease in 30-day mortality by -1.6% (95% CI, -3.4 to -0.2, p = 0.039) and 90-day mortality by -2.3% (95% CI, -4.3 to -0.4, p = 0.018). The change point of risk-adjusted cumulative sum was 3.12 for competency assessment tool and 4.74 for global assessment score whereas laparoscopic rate increased from 44% to 66% and 40% to 56% respectively.CONCLUSIONS: Lapco increased the rate of laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery and reduced mortality and morbidity in England. In-training competency assessment tools predicted clinical performance after training

Is 3D faster and safer than 4K laparoscopic cholecystectomy? A randomised-controlled trial

Background Laparoscopic surgery has well-established benefits for patients; however, laparoscopic procedures have a long and difficult learning curve, in large part due to the lack of stereoscopic depth perception. Developments in high-definition and stereoscopic imaging have attempted to overcome this. Three-dimensional high-definition (3D HD) systems are thought to improve operating times compared to two-dimensional high-definition systems. However their performance against new, ultra-high-definition ('4K') systems is not known. Methods Patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy were randomised to 3D HD or 4K laparoscopy. Operative videos were recorded, and the time from gallbladder exposure to separation from the liver (minus on table cholangiogram) was calculated. Blinded video assessment was performed to calculate intraoperative error scores. Results One hundred and twenty patients were randomised, of which 109 were analysed (3D HD n = 54; 4K n = 55). No reduction in operative time was detected with 3D HD compared to 4K laparoscopy (median [IQR]; 23.41 min [17.00–37.98] vs 20.90 min [17.67–33.03]; p = 0.91); nor was there any decrease observed in error scores (60 [56–62] vs 58 [56–60]; p = 0.27), complications or reattendance. Stone spillage occurred more frequently with 3D HD, but there were no other differences in individual error rates. Gallbladder grade and operating surgeon had significant effects on time to complete the operation. Gallbladder grade also had a significant effect on the error score. Conclusions A 3D HD laparoscopic system did not reduce operative time or error scores during laparoscopic cholecystectomy compared with a new 4K imaging system.</p

Reductions in 28-Day Mortality Following Hospital Admission for Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage

Background & AimsIt is unclear whether mortality from upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage is changing: any differences observed might result from changes in age or comorbidity of patient populations. We estimated trends in 28-day mortality in England following hospital admission for gastrointestinal hemorrhage.MethodsWe used a case-control study design to analyze data from all adults administered to a National Health Service hospital, for upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage, from 1999 to 2007 (n = 516,153). Cases were deaths within 28 days of admission (n = 74,992), and controls were survivors to 28 days. The 28-day mortality was derived from the linked national death register. A logistic regression model was used to adjust trends in nonvariceal and variceal hemorrhage mortality for age, sex, and comorbidities and to investigate potential interactions.ResultsDuring the study period, the unadjusted, overall, 28-day mortality following nonvariceal hemorrhage was reduced from 14.7% to 13.1% (unadjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval: 0.84–0.90). The mortality following variceal hemorrhage was reduced from 24.6% to 20.9% (unadjusted odds ratio, 0.8; 95% confidence interval: 0.69–0.95). Adjustments for age and comorbidity partly accounted for the observed trends in mortality. Different mortality trends were identified for different age groups following nonvariceal hemorrhage.ConclusionsThe 28-day mortality in England following both nonvariceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage decreased from 1999 to 2007, and the reduction had been partly obscured by changes in patient age and comorbidities. Our findings indicate that the overall management of bleeding has improved within the first 4 weeks of admission

Predictive Factors and Risk Model for Positive Circumferential Resection Margin Rate after Transanal Total Mesorectal Excision in 2653 Patients with Rectal Cancer

The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of, and preoperative risk factors for, positive circumferential resection margin (CRM) after transanal total mesorectal excision (TaTME). Background: TaTME has the potential to further reduce the rate of positive CRM for patients with low rectal cancer, thereby improving oncological outcome. Methods: A prospective registry-based study including all cases recorded on the international TaTME registry between July 2014 and January 2018 was performed. Endpoints were the incidence of, and predictive factors for, positive CRM. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed, and factors for positive CRM were then assessed by formulating a predictive model. Results: In total, 2653 patients undergoing TaTME for rectal cancer were included. The incidence of positive CRM was 107 (4.0%). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, a positive CRM after TaTME was significantly associated with tumors located up to 1 cm from the anorectal junction, anterior tumors, cT4 tumors, extra-mural venous invasion (EMVI), and threatened or involved CRM on baseline MRI (odds ratios 2.09, 1.66, 1.93, 1.94, and 1.72, respectively). The predictive model showed adequate discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve &gt;0.70), and predicted a 28% risk of positive CRM if all risk factors were present. Conclusion: Five preoperative tumor-related characteristics had an adverse effect on CRM involvement after TaTME. The predicted risk of positive CRM after TaTME for a specific patient can be calculated preoperatively with the proposed model and may help guide patient selection for optimal treatment and enhance a tailored treatment approach to further optimize oncological outcomes