The last glacial cycle: transient simulations with an AOGCM

A number of transient climate runs simulating the last 120kyr have been carried out using FAMOUS, a fast atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This is the first time such experiments have been done with a full AOGCM, providing a three-dimensional simulation of both atmosphere and ocean over this period. Our simulation thus includes internally generated temporal variability over periods from days to millennia, and physical, detailed representations of important processes such as clouds and precipitation. Although the model is fast, computational restrictions mean that the rate of change of the forcings has been increased by a factor of 10, making each experiment 12kyr long. Atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), northern hemisphere ice sheets and variations in solar radiation arising from changes in the Earth's orbit are treated as forcing factors, and are applied either separately or combined in different experiments. The long-term temperature changes on Antarctica match well with reconstructions derived from ice-core data, as does variability on timescales longer than 10 kyr. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) cooling on Greenland is reasonably well simulated, although our simulations, which lack ice-sheet meltwater forcing, do not reproduce the abrupt, millennial scale climate shifts seen in northern hemisphere climate proxies or their slower southern hemisphere counterparts. The spatial pattern of sea surface cooling at the LGM matches proxy reconstructions reasonably well. There is significant anti-correlated variability in the strengths of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) on timescales greater than 10kyr in our experiments. We find that GHG forcing weakens the AMOC and strengthens the ACC, whilst the presence of northern hemisphere ice-sheets strengthens the AMOC and weakens the ACC. The structure of the AMOC at the LGM is found to be sensitive to the details of the ice-sheet reconstruction used. The precessional component of the orbital forcing induces ~20kyr oscillations in the AMOC and ACC, whose amplitude is mediated by changes in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit. These forcing influences combine, to first order, in a linear fashion to produce the mean climate and ocean variability seen in the run with all forcings

Classical and Quantum Implications of the Causality Structure of Two-Dimensional Spacetimes with Degenerate Metrics

The causality structure of two-dimensional manifolds with degenerate metrics is analysed in terms of global solutions of the massless wave equation. Certain novel features emerge. Despite the absence of a traditional Lorentzian Cauchy surface on manifolds with a Euclidean domain it is possible to uniquely determine a global solution (if it exists), satisfying well defined matching conditions at the degeneracy curve, from Cauchy data on certain spacelike curves in the Lorentzian region. In general, however, no global solution satisfying such matching conditions will be consistent with this data. Attention is drawn to a number of obstructions that arise prohibiting the construction of a bounded operator connecting asymptotic single particle states. The implications of these results for the existence of a unitary quantum field theory are discussed.Comment: 27 pages LaTex (6 Figures), Journal of Mathematical Physics (Accepted

Making development co-operation fit for the future: a survey of partner countries

This paper provides insights into what partner country governments anticipate will be their main development challenges within five to ten years, and into how they expect their relationships with Development Assistance Committee development assistance providers to evolve in order to meet these challenges Abstract Based on results from an OECD-commissioned survey of 40 developing country governments, the paper finds that demand for development co-operation will remain strong given the economic and environmental challenges that lie ahead. However, the countries surveyed expect Development Assistance Committee (DAC) providers to shift to a more enabling role in the coming years: providing vital finance, but in support of government-led sector programmes; delivering more and better technical and policy support; and leveraging more private finance. This paper will inform the OECD Development Co-operation Directorate’s ‘Agency of the Future’ project, which seeks to identify how DAC members’ development administrations will need to adapt in order to be fit for purpose in a rapidly changing world

Objectives-Based Fisheries Management; Building on 20-years Experience with Individual Transferable Quotas

The year 2006 marked the twentieth anniversary of the introduction of the Quota Management System (QMS) in New Zealand fisheries management. This major institutional change made individual transferable quota (ITQ) the quantitative authority for commercial fisheries catches, leading structural change and economic development to transform the New Zealand fishing industry into a prosperous and major contributor to the national economy. In addition to being a significant anniversary for the QMS, last year also saw significant development of a new objectives-based co-management framework by the Ministry of Fisheries. Created to build on the strengths of the QMS, the new approach seeks to establish a hierarchy of specified objectives for fisheries management from overall statements of desired outcomes through to detailed standards for processes and management performance explicitly linked through stated intervention logic. Working to this set of objectives and standards, an agency-facilitated stakeholder process will develop agreed management plans for defined fisheries. Objectives must be measurable and linkages testable, with monitoring of specified performance indicators being integral components of agreed plans. The new Fisheries Plan framework capitalises on the coherence brought to the commercial sector by secure catching rights under the QMS, attempting to extend this across the broader stakeholder community. It is endeavouring to establish a new process model for agency-initiated co-management that has the potential to draw diverse stakeholders together and develop common goals for management of their fisheries. After providing a brief introduction to the New Zealand context and the QMS and its history, this paper sets out to assess how the QMS has performed against the assumptions that underpinned its implementation in the mid-1980s. This in turn provides the context for the next step the development of the Fisheries Plan framework envisioned to move the overall management system in New Zealand forward into an era of broader stewardship of resources and environment, by all fisheries stakeholders. This new framework and the progress thus far are briefly described.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Some Aspects of Aggregate Concentration in the Israeli Economy, 1964-1986

This essay examines the Israeli market structure from the perspective of ownership. We distinguish between the several corporate holding-groups that dominate the ‘Big Economy’ and the multitude of smaller, largely independent, business entities of the ‘Small Economy’. Although the two “sectors” operate under the same macroeconomic conditions, the analysis reveals marked differences in their business performance. These differences were reflected in an upward trend of aggregate concentration through the 1964-1968 period. Until the early 1970s the upward trend was moderate and was largely due to the different expansion paces of the two “sectors”. Since then, however, the trend intensified as the ‘Small Economy’ stagnated while profits in the ‘Big Economy’ continued to grow.concentration dual economy holding groups Israel market structure national accounting ownership profit surplus

Patient Cost-Sharing, Hospitalization Offsets, and the Design of Optimal Health Insurance for the Elderly

Patient cost-sharing for primary care and prescription drugs is designed to reduce the prevalence of moral hazard in medical utilization. Yet the success of this strategy depends on two factors: the elasticity of demand for those medical goods, and the risk of downstream hospitalizations by reducing access to beneficial health care. Surprisingly, we know little about either of these factors for the elderly, the most intensive consumers of health care in our country. We remedy both of these deficiencies by studying a policy change that raised patient cost-sharing for retired public employees in California. We find that physician office visits and prescription drug utilization are price sensitive, with implied arc-elasticities that are similar to those of the famous RAND Health Insurance Experiment (HIE). However, unlike the HIE, we find substantial “offset” effects in terms of increased hospital utilization in response to the combination of higher copayments for physicians and prescription drugs. These offset effects are concentrated in patients for whom medical care is presumably efficacious: those with a chronic disease. Finally, we find that the savings from increased cost-sharing accrue mostly to the supplemental insurer, while the costs of increased hospitalization accrue mostly to Medicare; thus, there is a fiscal externality associated with cost-sharing increases by supplemental insurers. Our findings suggest that health insurance should be tied to underlying health status, with chronically ill patients facing lower cost-sharing. We also conclude that the externalities to Medicare from supplemental insurance coverage may be more modest than previously suggested due to these offsets.

Libelling Oscar Wilde: The case of Regina vs. John Sholto Douglas

This paper explores the 1895 libel trial between Oscar Wilde (literary personality) and the Marquis of Queensbury (father of Wilde's close friend). Focussing on the lead defence counsel's cross-examination of Wilde (plaintiff), I demonstrate that Carson's FTAs are “aggressive” and, in some cases, “deliberately” so (cf. Bousfield, Impoliteness in interaction, John Benjamins, 2008: 72). However, as they do not breach the rules of the courtroom or involve an overt “intent to harm” (Goffman, Interaction ritual: Essays on face-to-face behaviour, Pantheon Books, 1967: 14), I argue that they do not constitute impoliteness. I further argue that Carson's FTAs should not be considered “incidental” in nature, given they were more planned and more anticipated than Goffman's (Interaction ritual: Essays on face-to-face behaviour, Pantheon Books, 1967: 14) definition seems to allow, and thus suggest that Carson's FTAs be recognized as sitting somewhere between Goffman's intentional or incidental levels – thanks, in part, to their manipulation of multiple goals (Penman, Facework and politeness: Multiple goals in courtroom discourse, Multilingual Matters Ltd., 1990) – in what I have labelled the ambiguous-as-to-speaker-intent zone (Archer under review). I also demonstrate Carson's use/manipulation of representational frames and reality paradigms so as to emphasize Wilde's moral “deviance”. In brief, a reality paradigm equates to “the systems of beliefs [and] values … by reference to which a person or a society comprehends the world” (Fowler, Linguistic criticism, Oxford University Press, 1986: 130), and representational frames, to the way(s) in which interlocutors opt to “represent the character traits, ideas and opinions of and even statements made by others” (Locher and Watts, Relational work and impoliteness: Negotiating norms of linguistic behaviour, Mouton de Gruyter, 2008: 99, n9). I conclude by responding to two questions highlighted by my investigation: (1) Should we be talking about impoliteness in the courtroom (even when investigating the cross-examination phase)? and (2) To what extent can our understanding of facework be enhanced, in both a courtroom context and more generally, via a consideration of reality paradigms (and their strategic manipulation)