Commentary: Ensuring health statistics in conflict are evidence-based

The author argues that measuring mortality in conflict settings is fraught with limitations which mostly result in under-estimation of mortality. Some recent publications on this subject have been based upon convenient surveillance processes, or even press reports. The author calls for vigilance against such studies and argues that war related surveillance-based mortality estimates should include measures of sensitivity and representativeness

On the bi-stable nature of turbulent premixed bluff-body stabilized flames at elevated pressure and near lean blow-off

This study considers turbulent premixed bluff-body stabilized flames at elevated pressures. Specifically, the lean blow-off (LBO) limit of such flames is determined for a range of bulk velocities (5 U 50m/s) and operating pressures up to 3 bar. Two key observations emerge from this stability assessment. The first is that considering elevated pressure leads to two stability regimes: one at atmospheric conditions and those with elevated pressure and U & 20m/s (regime-a), and another at elevated pressures with U . 20m/s (regime-b). The second observation is that within these regimes, LBO limits are insensitive to pressure. Flames in regime-a (S-flames) are found to be more stable than those in regime-b (U-flames). Advanced image-based diagnostics were employed to understand reasons for this difference in stability. Flow field measurements indicate that U-flames are associated with an outer recirculation zone (ORZ) that formed as pressure increased but receded from the burner as U surpassed 20m/s. PLIF images of CH2O and OH demonstrated that the ORZ interacts with U-flames such that their downstream regions are prevented from collapsing to the inner recirculation zone (IRZ). Furthermore, analysis of the OH-PLIF images indicate that U-flames possess larger turbulent consumption rates, helping them form large IRZs and rendering them more susceptible to influence from the ORZ. Results of highspeed OH∗ imaging demonstrate that LBO events differ between U- and Sflames. Namely, while S-flames collapse to their IRZs during LBO, U-flames lift off from the burner, depleting their anchoring regions of reactions and hot products. Losing back-support in this region is what ultimately reduces the stability of U-flames. Finally, the reason U-flames lift off from the burner during LBO is elucidated by joint flow-flame measurements. Specifically, the anchoring regions of U-flames reside in regions of large axial velocity, which likely stems from their enhanced burning rates.No fundin

Sampling constrained probability distributions using Spherical Augmentation

Statistical models with constrained probability distributions are abundant in machine learning. Some examples include regression models with norm constraints (e.g., Lasso), probit, many copula models, and latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). Bayesian inference involving probability distributions confined to constrained domains could be quite challenging for commonly used sampling algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel augmentation technique that handles a wide range of constraints by mapping the constrained domain to a sphere in the augmented space. By moving freely on the surface of this sphere, sampling algorithms handle constraints implicitly and generate proposals that remain within boundaries when mapped back to the original space. Our proposed method, called {Spherical Augmentation}, provides a mathematically natural and computationally efficient framework for sampling from constrained probability distributions. We show the advantages of our method over state-of-the-art sampling algorithms, such as exact Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, using several examples including truncated Gaussian distributions, Bayesian Lasso, Bayesian bridge regression, reconstruction of quantized stationary Gaussian process, and LDA for topic modeling.Comment: 41 pages, 13 figure

On the flexibility of the design of Multiple Try Metropolis schemes

The Multiple Try Metropolis (MTM) method is a generalization of the classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm in which the next state of the chain is chosen among a set of samples, according to normalized weights. In the literature, several extensions have been proposed. In this work, we show and remark upon the flexibility of the design of MTM-type methods, fulfilling the detailed balance condition. We discuss several possibilities and show different numerical results

Automatic mental processes, automatic actions and behaviours in game transfer phenomena: an empirical self-report study using online forum data

Previous studies have demonstrated that the playing of videogames can have both intended and unintended effects. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of videogames on players’ mental processes and behaviours in day-to-day settings. A total of 1,023 self-reports from 762 gamers collected from online videogame forums were classified, quantified, described and explained. The data include automatic thoughts, sensations and impulses, automatic mental replays of the game in real life, and voluntary/involuntary behaviours with videogame content. Many gamers reported that they had responded – at least sometimes – to real life stimuli as if they were still playing videogames. This included overreactions, avoidances, and involuntary movements of limbs. These experiences lasted relatively short periods of time but in a minority of players were recurrent. The gamers' experiences appeared to be enhanced by virtual embodiment, repetitive manipulation of game controls, and their gaming habits. However, similar phenomena may also occur when doing other non-gaming activities. The implications of these game transfer experiences are discussed

Recognizing detachment-mode seafloor spreading in the deep geological past.

Large-offset oceanic detachment faults are a characteristic of slow- and ultraslow-spreading ridges, leading to the formation of oceanic core complexes (OCCs) that expose upper mantle and lower crustal rocks on the seafloor. The lithospheric extension accommodated by these structures is now recognized as a fundamentally distinct “detachment-mode” of seafloor spreading compared to classical magmatic accretion. Here we demonstrate a paleomagnetic methodology that allows unequivocal recognition of detachment-mode seafloor spreading in ancient ophiolites and apply this to a potential Jurassic detachment fault system in the Mirdita ophiolite (Albania). We show that footwall and hanging wall blocks either side of an inferred detachment have significantly different magnetizations that can only be explained by relative rotation during seafloor spreading. The style of rotation is shown to be identical to rolling hinge footwall rotation documented recently in OCCs in the Atlantic, confirming that detachment-mode spreading operated at least as far back as the Jurassic

Gestational trophoblastic disease: does central nervous system chemoprophylaxis have a role?

In the UK there are standardized surveillance procedures for gestational trophoblastic disease. However, there are differences in practice between the two treatment centres in terms of definition of persistent gestational trophoblastic disease, prognostic risk assessment and chemotherapeutic regimens. The role of prophylactic chemotherapy for cerebral micrometastatic disease in persistent gestational trophoblastic disease is unclear. We have analysed the outcome of 69 patients with lung metastases who elsewhere might have received prophylactic intrathecal chemotherapy. Of the 69 patients, 67 received intravenous chemotherapy only. The other two patients had cerebral metastases at presentation. One patient who received only intravenous chemotherapy subsequently developed a cerebral metastasis, but this patient's initial treatment was compromised by non-compliance. This experience supports our current policy of not treating patients with pulmonary metastases, without clinical evidence of central nervous system (CNS) involvement, with prophylactic intrathecal therapy. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Insecticide resistance and the future of malaria control in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: In line with the Global trend to improve malaria control efforts a major campaign of insecticide treated net distribution was initiated in 1999 and indoor residual spraying with DDT or pyrethroids was reintroduced in 2000 in Zambia. In 2006, these efforts were strengthened by the President's Malaria Initiative. This manuscript reports on the monitoring and evaluation of these activities and the potential impact of emerging insecticide resistance on disease transmission. METHODS: Mosquitoes were captured daily through a series of 108 window exit traps located at 18 sentinel sites. Specimens were identified to species and analyzed for sporozoites. Adult Anopheles mosquitoes were collected resting indoors and larva collected in breeding sites were reared to F1 and F0 generations in the lab and tested for insecticide resistance following the standard WHO susceptibility assay protocol. Annual cross sectional household parasite surveys were carried out to monitor the impact of the control programme on prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in children aged 1 to 14 years. RESULTS: A total of 619 Anopheles gambiae s.l. and 228 Anopheles funestus s.l. were captured from window exit traps throughout the period, of which 203 were An. gambiae malaria vectors and 14 An. funestus s.s.. In 2010 resistance to DDT and the pyrethroids deltamethrin, lambda-cyhalothrin and permethrin was detected in both An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus s.s.. No sporozoites were detected in either species. Prevalence of P. falciparum in the sentinel sites remained below 10% throughout the study period. CONCLUSION: Both An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus s.s. were controlled effectively with the ITN and IRS programme in Zambia, maintaining a reduced disease transmission and burden. However, the discovery of DDT and pyrethroid resistance in the country threatens the sustainability of the vector control programme