The impact of HIV and AIDS on Africa's economic development

The macroeconomic effects of HIV/AIDS in Africa are substantial, and policies fill. dealing with them may be controversial-one is whether expensive antiretroviral drugs Should be targeted at economically productive groups of people. The authors review the evidence and consider how economic theory can contribute to our response to the pandemic

Astrophysically robust systematics removal using variational inference: application to the first month of Kepler data

Space-based transit search missions such as Kepler are collecting large numbers of stellar light curves of unprecedented photometric precision and time coverage. However, before this scientific goldmine can be exploited fully, the data must be cleaned of instrumental artefacts. We present a new method to correct common-mode systematics in large ensembles of very high precision light curves. It is based on a Bayesian linear basis model and uses shrinkage priors for robustness, variational inference for speed, and a de-noising step based on empirical mode decomposition to prevent the introduction of spurious noise into the corrected light curves. After demonstrating the performance of our method on a synthetic dataset, we apply it to the first month of Kepler data. We compare the results, which are publicly available, to the output of the Kepler pipeline's pre-search data conditioning, and show that the two generally give similar results, but the light curves corrected using our approach have lower scatter, on average, on both long and short timescales. We finish by discussing some limitations of our method and outlining some avenues for further development. The trend-corrected data produced by our approach are publicly available.Comment: 15 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Calorimetric detection of neutral-atom content of ion beam

Energy deposition technique deduces neutral-beam flux or dose from measured values of incremental resistance increases in platinum wire passed through beam. Steady-state heat balance analysis led to equivalent neutral-beam current. Method was used to detect neutral-atom content of 60-keV argon ion beam

Aids and Economic Growth: A Human Capital Approach

It is estimated that by 2001 20 million people had died from AIDS, which is now the world´s fourth biggest cause of death. While the highest prevalence and death rates and number of infected persons are reported for sub-Saharan Africa, where life expectancies at birth are declining rapidly and infant mortality rates are increasing, there is evidence that the epidemic is accelerating in Asia and Eastern Europe. While the human and social costs of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are the major causes for concern, the econometric results reported in this paper indicate that the macroeconomic affects of the HIV/AIDS epidemic have been substantial; especially in Africa where the average marginal negative impact on income per capita of a one percent increase in HIV prevalence rate is 0.59 percent. Even in countries where the HIV prevalence rates are lower the marginal impacts are non trivial

Efficient state-space inference of periodic latent force models

Latent force models (LFM) are principled approaches to incorporating solutions to differen-tial equations within non-parametric inference methods. Unfortunately, the developmentand application of LFMs can be inhibited by their computational cost, especially whenclosed-form solutions for the LFM are unavailable, as is the case in many real world prob-lems where these latent forces exhibit periodic behaviour. Given this, we develop a newsparse representation of LFMs which considerably improves their computational efficiency,as well as broadening their applicability, in a principled way, to domains with periodic ornear periodic latent forces. Our approach uses a linear basis model to approximate onegenerative model for each periodic force. We assume that the latent forces are generatedfrom Gaussian process priors and develop a linear basis model which fully expresses thesepriors. We apply our approach to model the thermal dynamics of domestic buildings andshow that it is effective at predicting day-ahead temperatures within the homes. We alsoapply our approach within queueing theory in which quasi-periodic arrival rates are mod-elled as latent forces. In both cases, we demonstrate that our approach can be implemented efficiently using state-space methods which encode the linear dynamic systems via LFMs.Further, we show that state estimates obtained using periodic latent force models can re-duce the root mean squared error to 17% of that from non-periodic models and 27% of thenearest rival approach which is the resonator model (S ̈arkk ̈a et al., 2012; Hartikainen et al.,2012.

AIDS in Botswana: Evaluating the general equilibrium implications of healthcare interventions

This paper reports an analysis of the effects of health care interventions designed to reduce the impacts of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the Botswana economy. The analyses were conducted using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model for Botswana within which was embedded a compartmental epidemiological model. The health care interventions examined are reductions in other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) that reduce the probability of HIV transmission and a mass media health education programme that reduces the number of new sexual partnerships being formed. While the policy scenarios examined are, necessarily, somewhat stylised, the results indicate both the devastating adverse effects of the epidemic and the substantial potential benefits of the interventions. Without interventions disposable household incomes per capita are up to 50 per cent less than they would have been in 2020, but with these interventions the adverse effects of the epidemic are more than halved

Anisotropic magnetoresistance contribution to measured domain wall resistances of in-plane magnetised (Ga,Mn)As

We demonstrate the presence of an important anisotropic magnetoresistance contribution to the domain wall resistance recently measured in thin-film (Ga,Mn)As with in-plane magnetic anisotropy. Analytic results for simple domain wall orientations supplemented by numerical results for more general cases show this previously omitted contribution can largely explain the observed negative resistance.Comment: 4 pages; submitted to Phys Rev