Modelling repeated epidemics with general infection kernels

An integral equation approach is taken to explore the characteristics of a general infectious disease in a homogeneous population. It is shown that the final size of the epidemic depends on the basic reproduction ratio for the infection and the initial number of susceptibles. A discrete map for the susceptible population from epidemic generation to epidemic generation is formed to consider the long term behaviour of the disease in a population of constant size

Inflatable habitation for the lunar base

Inflatable structures have a number of advantages over rigid modules in providing habitation at a lunar base. Some of these advantages are packaging efficiency, convenience of expansion, flexibility, and psychological benefit to the inhabitants. The relatively small, rigid cylinders fitted to the payload compartment of a launch vehicle are not as efficient volumetrically as a collapsible structure that fits into the same space when packaged, but when deployed is much larger. Pressurized volume is a valuable resource. By providing that resource efficiently, in large units, labor intensive external expansion (such as adding additional modules to the existing base) can be minimized. The expansive interior in an inflatable would facilitate rearrangement of the interior to suite the evolving needs of the base. This large, continuous volume would also relieve claustrophobia, enhancing habitability and improving morale. The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the aspects of inflatable habitat design, including structural, architectural, and environmental considerations. As a specific case, the conceptual design of an inflatable lunar habitat, developed for the Lunar Base Systems Study at the Johnson Space Center, is described

Relaxational dislocation damping due to dislocation-dislocation intersections with application to magnesium single crystals

Relaxational dislocation damping due to dislocation-dislocation intersections with applications to magnesium single crystal

Precision measurement noise asymmetry and its annual modulation as a dark matter signature

Dark matter may be composed of ultralight quantum fields that form macroscopic objects. As the Earth moves through the galaxy, interactions with such objects may leave transient signatures in terrestrial experiments. These signatures may be sought by analyzing correlations between multiple devices in a distributed network. However, if the objects are small (<~10^3 km) it becomes unlikely that more than one device will be affected in a given event. Such models may, however, induce an observable asymmetry in the noise distributions of precision measurement devices, such as atomic clocks. Further, an annual modulation in this asymmetry is expected. Such an analysis may be performed very simply using existing data, and would be sensitive to models with a high event rate, even if individual events cannot be resolved. For certain models, our technique extends the discovery reach beyond that of existing experiments by many orders of magnitude

An Expansion Term In Hamilton's Equations

For any given spacetime the choice of time coordinate is undetermined. A particular choice is the absolute time associated with a preferred vector field. Using the absolute time Hamilton's equations are $- (\delta H_{c})/(\delta q)=\dot{\pi}+\Theta\pi,$+ (\delta H_{c})/(\delta \pi)=\dot{q}$, where$\Theta = V^{a}_{.;a}$is the expansion of the vector field. Thus there is a hitherto unnoticed term in the expansion of the preferred vector field. Hamilton's equations can be used to describe fluid motion. In this case the absolute time is the time associated with the fluid's co-moving vector. As measured by this absolute time the expansion term is present. Similarly in cosmology, each observer has a co-moving vector and Hamilton's equations again have an expansion term. It is necessary to include the expansion term to quantize systems such as the above by the canonical method of replacing Dirac brackets by commutators. Hamilton's equations in this form do not have a corresponding sympletic form. Replacing the expansion by a particle number$N\equiv exp(-\int\Theta d \ta)$and introducing the particle numbers conjugate momentum$\pi^{N}$the standard sympletic form can be recovered with two extra fields N and$\pi^N$. Briefly the possibility of a non-standard sympletic form and the further possibility of there being a non-zero Finsler curvature corresponding to this are looked at.Comment: 10 page

Recent Developments in Fisheries Science and Their Prospects for Improving Fisheries Contributions to Food Security

Marine reserves, areas permanently closed to all fishing, are frequently proposed as a tool for managing fisheries. Fishery benefits claimed for reserves include increases in spawning stock size, animal body size, and reproductive output of exploited species. Reserves are predicted to augment catches through export of offspring to fishing grounds, and spillover of juveniles and adults from reserves to fisheries. Protection of stocks and development of extended age structures of populations in reserves are argued to offer insurance against environmental variability and management failure. Models also suggest reserves will reduce year-to-year variability in catches, and offer greater simplicity of management and enforcement. Reserves are predicted to lead to habitat recovery from fishing disturbance which can also enhance benefits to fisheries. Extensive field research confirms many of these predictions. Reserves worldwide have led to increases in abundance, body size, biomass and reproductive output of exploited species. Such measures often increase many times over, sometimes by an order of magnitude or more. Population build up is usually rapid with effects detectable within 2-3 years of protection. Increases are often sustained over extended periods, particularly for longer-lived species and for measures of habitat recovery. Reserves have benefitted species from a wide taxonomic spectrum that covers most economically important taxa, including many species of fish, crustaceans, mollusks and echinoderms. Encouraged by these results, many countries and states have embarked upon initiatives to establish networks of marine reserves. However, reserves remain highly controversial among fishers and fishing industry bodies who argue that fishery benefits remain unproven. In the last three years there has been rapid growth in the number of cases where fisheries have been shown to benefit from reserves. In this report, we critically analyze this body of evidence, drawing upon studies of reserves and fishery closures. Fishery managers have long used fishery closures, areas temporarily closed to fishing for one or more species or to specific fishing gears. They are employed to help rebuild depleted stocks, reduce gear conflicts, protect vulnerable life stages of exploited species or protect sensitive habitats from damaging gears. Such areas can tell us much about the potential effects of marine reserves. Fishery benefits from reserves and fishery closures typically develop quickly, in most cases within five years of their creation. Perhaps the most persuasive evidence of fishery effects of reserves comes from changing fishing patterns. In most places where well-respected reserves or fishery closures exist, fishers tend to move their fishing activities closer to their boundaries. Fishing-the-line, as it is called, allows fishers to benefit from spillover of animals from reserves to fishing grounds. There are now well-documented cases of spillover from more than a dozen countries and including a wide range of species. It is more technically demanding to prove fishery enhancement through export of offspring on ocean currents. Existing reserves are generally small, making it hard to detect increased recruitment to fisheries at a regional scale. However, there are now several cases in which export of eggs and larvae have been confirmed, including dramatic enhancement of scallop fisheries in Georges Bank and clam fisheries in Fiji. Small reserves have worked well and repeatedly produce local benefits. However, regional fisheries enhancement will require more extensive networks of reserves. Some of the most convincing success stories come from places in which between 10 and 35% of fishing grounds have been protected. In several cases there is evidence that yields with reserves have risen to higher levels than prior to protection, despite a reduction in the area of fishing grounds. In other cases, smaller reserves have stabilized catches from intensively exploited fisheries or slowed existing rates of decline. We describe experiences that prove that success of marine reserves is not contingent on habitat type, geographical location, the kind of fishery involved, or the technological sophistication of management. Reserve benefits are not restricted to habitats like coral reefs, or to artisanal fisheries, as some critics claim. Fishery benefits have been demonstrated from reserves established in tropical, warm- and cold-temperate waters, and in many habitats, including coral reefs, rocky reefs, kelp forests, seagrass beds, mangroves, estuaries, soft sediments, continental shelves and deep sea. Reserves and fishery closures have worked well for a wide range of fisheries, spanning recreational fisheries, artisanal fisheries like those of coral reefs, through small-scale nearshore fisheries for species like lobsters, up to industrial-scale fisheries for animals like flatfish and scallops. They have worked across a similarly broad spectrum of management sophistication, from self-policing by committed fishers, through warden patrols to satellite monitoring of distant fishing activities. We now have strong evidence that with the support of local communities, marine reserves offer a highly effective management tool. However, reserves will only rarely be adequate as a stand-alone management approach, although we describe cases where they have worked in the absence of other measures. They will be most effective when implemented as part of a package of limits on fishing effort and protect exploited species and their habitats

Component specific modeling

Modern jet engine design imposes extremely high loadings and temperatures on hot section components. A series of interdisciplinary modeling and analysis techniques which were specialized to address three specific components (combustor burner linings, hollow air-cooled turbine blades, and air-cooled turbine vanes) were developed and verified. These techniques will incorporate data as well as theoretical methods from many diverse areas, including cycle and performance analysis, heat transfer analysis, linear and nonlinear stress analysis, and mission analysis. Building on the proven techniques already available in these fields, the new methods developed will be integrated to predict temperature, deformation, stress, and strain histories throughout a complete flight mission

Temperature, chemical potential and the rho meson

We describe some applications of the Dyson-Schwinger equations at nonzero-(T,mu). Employing a simple model dressed-gluon propagator we determine the boundary of the deconfinement phase transition and the medium dependence of rho-meson properties. We introduce an extension to describe the time-evolution of scalar and vector self energies.Comment: 6 pages, LaTeX with 3 EPS figures; Contribution to the 'International Workshop XXVIII on Gross Properties of Nuclei and Nuclear Excitations', Hirschegg, Austria, 16-22.01.200