1,864 research outputs found

    Effective, Robust Design of Community Mitigation for Pandemic Influenza: A Systematic Examination of Proposed US Guidance

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    BACKGROUND: The US government proposes pandemic influenza mitigation guidance that includes isolation and antiviral treatment of ill persons, voluntary household member quarantine and antiviral prophylaxis, social distancing of individuals, school closure, reduction of contacts at work, and prioritized vaccination. Is this the best strategy combination? Is choice of this strategy robust to pandemic uncertainties? What are critical enablers of community resilience? METHODS AND FINDINGS: We systematically simulate a broad range of pandemic scenarios and mitigation strategies using a networked, agent-based model of a community of explicit, multiply-overlapping social contact networks. We evaluate illness and societal burden for alterations in social networks, illness parameters, or intervention implementation. For a 1918-like pandemic, the best strategy minimizes illness to <1% of the population and combines network-based (e.g. school closure, social distancing of all with adults' contacts at work reduced), and case-based measures (e.g. antiviral treatment of the ill and prophylaxis of household members). We find choice of this best strategy robust to removal of enhanced transmission by the young, additional complexity in contact networks, and altered influenza natural history including extended viral shedding. Administration of age-group or randomly targeted 50% effective pre-pandemic vaccine with 7% population coverage (current US H5N1 vaccine stockpile) had minimal effect on outcomes. In order, mitigation success depends on rapid strategy implementation, high compliance, regional mitigation, and rigorous rescinding criteria; these are the critical enablers for community resilience. CONCLUSIONS: Systematic evaluation of feasible, recommended pandemic influenza interventions generally confirms the US community mitigation guidance yields best strategy choices for pandemic planning that are robust to a wide range of uncertainty. The best strategy combines network- and case-based interventions; network-based interventions are paramount. Because strategies must be applied rapidly, regionally, and stringently for greatest benefit, preparation and public education is required for long-lasting, high community compliance during a pandemic

    A cardinal role for cathepsin D in co-ordinating the host-mediated apoptosis of macrophages and killing of pneumococci

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    The bactericidal function of macrophages against pneumococci is enhanced by their apoptotic demise, which is controlled by the anti-apoptotic protein Mcl-1. Here, we show that lysosomal membrane permeabilization (LMP) and cytosolic translocation of activated cathepsin D occur prior to activation of a mitochondrial pathway of macrophage apoptosis. Pharmacological inhibition or knockout of cathepsin D during pneumococcal infection blocked macrophage apoptosis. As a result of cathepsin D activation, Mcl-1 interacted with its ubiquitin ligase Mule and expression declined. Inhibition of cathepsin D had no effect on early bacterial killing but inhibited the late phase of apoptosis-associated killing of pneumococci in vitro. Mice bearing a cathepsin D-/- hematopoietic system demonstrated reduced macrophage apoptosis in vivo, with decreased clearance of pneumococci and enhanced recruitment of neutrophils to control pulmonary infection. These findings establish an unexpected role for a cathepsin D-mediated lysosomal pathway of apoptosis in pulmonary host defense and underscore the importance of apoptosis-associated microbial killing to macrophage function

    Influenza Infectious Dose May Explain the High Mortality of the Second and Third Wave of 1918–1919 Influenza Pandemic

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    BACKGROUND: It is widely accepted that the shift in case-fatality rate between waves during the 1918 influenza pandemic was due to a genetic change in the virus. In animal models, the infectious dose of influenza A virus was associated to the severity of disease which lead us to propose a new hypothesis. We propose that the increase in the case-fatality rate can be explained by the dynamics of disease and by a dose-dependent response mediated by the number of simultaneous contacts a susceptible person has with infectious ones. METHODS: We used a compartment model with seasonality, waning of immunity and a Holling type II function, to model simultaneous contacts between a susceptible person and infectious ones. In the model, infected persons having mild or severe illness depend both on the proportion of infectious persons in the population and on the level of simultaneous contacts between a susceptible and infectious persons. We further allowed for a high or low rate of waning immunity and volunteer isolation at different times of the epidemic. RESULTS: In all scenarios, case-fatality rate was low during the first wave (Spring) due to a decrease in the effective reproduction number. The case-fatality rate in the second wave (Autumn) depended on the ratio between the number of severe cases to the number of mild cases since, for each 1000 mild infections only 4 deaths occurred whereas for 1000 severe infections there were 20 deaths. A third wave (late Winter) was dependent on the rate for waning immunity or on the introduction of new susceptible persons in the community. If a group of persons became voluntarily isolated and returned to the community some days latter, new waves occurred. For a fixed number of infected persons the overall case-fatality rate decreased as the number of waves increased. This is explained by the lower proportion of infectious individuals in each wave that prevented an increase in the number of severe infections and thus of the case-fatality rate. CONCLUSION: The increase on the proportion of infectious persons as a proxy for the increase of the infectious dose a susceptible person is exposed, as the epidemic develops, can explain the shift in case-fatality rate between waves during the 1918 influenza pandemic.TD acknowledges the support of the Faculdade de Ciencias e Tecnologia through grant PPCDT/AMB/55701/2004. The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

    Using Dynamic Stochastic Modelling to Estimate Population Risk Factors in Infectious Disease: The Example of FIV in 15 Cat Populations

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    BACKGROUND:In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively) on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. CONCLUSION:Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease

    Actin- and Dynamin-Dependent Maturation of Bulk Endocytosis Restores Neurotransmission following Synaptic Depletion

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    Bulk endocytosis contributes to the maintenance of neurotransmission at the amphibian neuromuscular junction by regenerating synaptic vesicles. How nerve terminals internalize adequate portions of the presynaptic membrane when bulk endocytosis is initiated before the end of a sustained stimulation is unknown. A maturation process, occurring at the end of the stimulation, is hypothesised to precisely restore the pools of synaptic vesicles. Using confocal time-lapse microscopy of FM1-43-labeled nerve terminals at the amphibian neuromuscular junction, we confirm that bulk endocytosis is initiated during a sustained tetanic stimulation and reveal that shortly after the end of the stimulation, nerve terminals undergo a maturation process. This includes a transient bulging of the plasma membrane, followed by the development of large intraterminal FM1-43-positive donut-like structures comprising large bulk membrane cisternae surrounded by recycling vesicles. The degree of bulging increased with stimulation frequency and the plasmalemma surface retrieved following the transient bulging correlated with the surface membrane internalized in bulk cisternae and recycling vesicles. Dyngo-4a, a potent dynamin inhibitor, did not block the initiation, but prevented the maturation of bulk endocytosis. In contrast, cytochalasin D, an inhibitor of actin polymerization, hindered both the initiation and maturation processes. Both inhibitors hampered the functional recovery of neurotransmission after synaptic depletion. Our data confirm that initiation of bulk endocytosis occurs during stimulation and demonstrates that a delayed maturation process controlled by actin and dynamin underpins the coupling between exocytosis and bulk endocytosis

    A Downstream CpG Island Controls Transcript Initiation and Elongation and the Methylation State of the Imprinted Airn Macro ncRNA Promoter

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    A CpG island (CGI) lies at the 5′ end of the Airn macro non-protein-coding (nc) RNA that represses the flanking Igf2r promoter in cis on paternally inherited chromosomes. In addition to being modified on maternally inherited chromosomes by a DNA methylation imprint, the Airn CGI shows two unusual organization features: its position immediately downstream of the Airn promoter and transcription start site and a series of tandem direct repeats (TDRs) occupying its second half. The physical separation of the Airn promoter from the CGI provides a model to investigate if the CGI plays distinct transcriptional and epigenetic roles. We used homologous recombination to generate embryonic stem cells carrying deletions at the endogenous locus of the entire CGI or just the TDRs. The deleted Airn alleles were analyzed by using an ES cell imprinting model that recapitulates the onset of Igf2r imprinted expression in embryonic development or by using knock-out mice. The results show that the CGI is required for efficient Airn initiation and to maintain the unmethylated state of the Airn promoter, which are both necessary for Igf2r repression on the paternal chromosome. The TDRs occupying the second half of the CGI play a minor role in Airn transcriptional elongation or processivity, but are essential for methylation on the maternal Airn promoter that is necessary for Igf2r to be expressed from this chromosome. Together the data indicate the existence of a class of regulatory CGIs in the mammalian genome that act downstream of the promoter and transcription start
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