Understanding resistance to resilience in coastal hazards and climate adaptation: three approaches to visualizing structural and process obstacles, opportunities and adaptation responses

The US state of Rhode Island (RI) offers a unique case for examining the conditions that hinder or facilitate coastal resilience efforts, due to its small size, active coastal program, and dynamic engagement of stakeholders. A five-decade corpus of information on hazard events, studies, plans and policies, and database of more than 40,000 Rl Coastal Resource Management Council (CRMC) permit decisions helps reveal patterns of decision-maing related to coastal resilience. A social network map traces Rl stakeholder engagement revealing hidden areas of resistance resilience policies. Content analysis of documents and press coverage of decision-making in just one critical coastal area reveals 71 types of obstacles articulated by property owners and authorities. Current RI plans and studies are biased toward public engagement, filling information gaps, and designing new adaptation options. Deeper structural, financial and institutional sources of resistance to resilience remain and continue to be difficult to address

Improving the chances for developing coastal country success in adapting to climate change

There is an unequivocal scientific consensus that increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere drive warming temperatures of air and sea, and acidification of the world’s oceans from carbon dioxide absorbed by the oceans. These changes in turn can induce shifts in precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and more frequent and severe extreme weather events (e.g. storms and sea surge). All of these impacts are already being witnessed in the world’s coastal regions and are projected to intensify in years to come. Taken together, these impacts are likely to result in significant alteration of natural habitats and coastal ecosystems, and increased coastal hazards in low-lying areas. They can affect fishers, coastal communities and resource users, recreation and tourism, and coastal infrastructure. Approaches to planned adaptation to these impacts can be drawn from the lessons and good practices from global experience in Integrated Coastal Management (ICM). The recently published USAID Guidebook on Adapting to Coastal Climate Change (USAID 2009) is directed at practitioners, development planners, and coastal management professionals in developing countries. It offers approaches for assessing vulnerability to climate change and climate variability in communities and outlines how to develop and implement adaptation measures at the local and national levels. Six best practices for coastal adaptation are featured in the USAID Guidebook on Adapting to Coastal Climate Change and summarized in the following sections. (PDF contains 3 pages

Short-Term Pain and Long-Term Gain: Using Phased-In Minimum Size Limits to Rebuild Stocks-the Pacific Bluefin Tuna Example

Like many stocks, the Pacific Bluefin Tuna Thunnus orientalis has been considerably depleted. High exploitation rates on very young fish have reduced the spawning stock biomass (SSB) to 2.6% of the unexploited level. We provide a framework for exploring potential benefits of minimum size regulations as a mechanism for rebuilding stocks, and we illustrate the approach using simulations patterned after Pacific Bluefin Tuna dynamics. We attempt to mitigate short-term losses in yield by considering a phased-in management strategy. With this approach, the minimum size limit (MSL) is gradually increased as biomass rebuilds, giving fishing communities time to adjust to new restrictions. We estimated short- and long-term effects of different MSLs on yield and biomass by using data from the 2016 assessment. A variety of scenarios was considered for growth compensation, discard mortality, and interest rates. The long-term value of the fishery was maximized by setting an MSL of 92 cm FL, which resulted in a 70% loss in yield during the first year (short-term pain). By implementing the MSL in two phases (64 cm FL in year 1; 92 cm FL in subsequent years), the long-term value of the fishery was maintained, and the short-term pain was reduced to a maximum 46% loss in yield during any 1 year. Under a three-phase implementation (55 cm FL in year 1; 77 cm FL in year 2; and 92 cm FL in subsequent years), the short-term pain was further reduced to a maximum loss of 30% during any 1 year. With no discard mortality, long-term yield increased by 165% and SSB increased 13-fold (to 33% of virgin SSB), regardless of the number of phases used. Long-term benefits were quickly diminished with increasing discard mortality. This simulation approach is widely applicable to cases where minimum size changes are contemplated; for Pacific Bluefin Tuna, our simulations demonstrate that size limits should be considered

Modeling for policy change: A feedback perspective on improving the effectiveness of coastal and marine management

Those advocating for effective management of the use of coastal areas and ecosystems have long aspired for an approach to governance that includes information systems with the capability to predict the end results of various courses of action, monitor the impacts of decisions and compare results with those predicted by computer models in order to suggest alterations in the actions needed if the goals are not being achieved. This dissertation draws on system dynamics modeling, content analysis and professional experience to explore four decades of experience in the United States as well as international cases to reveal lessons and strategies for putting into practice the systematic approach sought by advocates of ecosystem-based management of the nation's, and the worlds coasts and marine areas. Simulations are used to examine the implications of program structure and policy choices in state-level coastal regulatory programs, decisions on a controversial use of marine areas: offshore fish farming, and the ongoing quest for more effective approaches to attaining local success in the sustainable use of coastal resources in poor countries. The models presented here draw upon structures used in variety of business management cases. These reveal the impacts of delay, the value of acting early on to set policies, and the danger of taking half-measures. Sufficient effort must be mobilized to enforce policies and change behavior patterns before coastal resource scarcity drives up the price of protection as well as the resistance to stringent rules. Development assistance places great emphasis on short term, high impact projects, but local success depends on steady long term support to overcome the barriers to attaining better management. Fish farming is controversial for environmental reasons, but seemingly stable operations such as bluefin tuna ranching in Mexico are highly sensitive to market fluctuations, the migration patterns of juvenile bluefin tuna and dependent on the abundance of sardine stocks. Many management failures can be traced to policy resistance and problems of informatics whose solutions include endogenous strategies. Our failures are often generated by ourselves, not by outsiders or by big, surprising shocks to the governance system

Population, health, and environment situational analysis for the Saadani National Park Area, Tanzania

This study provides a snapshot of the population, health, and environment situation and practices in the villages surrounding the Saadani National Park (SANAPA) and demonstrates the utility of a transdisciplinary systems perspective to evaluate population-health-environment linkages (PHE). Analyzing survey data from eight villages, this paper shows that in the SANAPA area, livelihoods are highly dependent on natural resources, but both agriculture and fisheries are experiencing a decline in productivity and profitability. Population stressors include a high population momentum, early marriages, teenage pregnancies, and migration. Women bear a heavy workload, while having little or no say in decision-making. The public health situation is severe with health facilities few and far in-between; lack of access to clean water and safe sanitation; and many households suffering from diarrhea, malaria, pneumonia, skin diseases, and HIV/AIDS. Environmental protection arrangements are in place in all sites, however, the awareness of protected areas and their benefits is low and many feel helpless in protecting the environment. Climate change-increasing periods of drought and irregular rainfall-contribute to food insecurity and health problems. The interconnectedness between these stressors reinforces the need for an integrated approach to addressing coastal conservation and community development in the SANAPA area. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd

Conservation in the Context of Climate Change: Practical Guidelines for Land Protection at Local Scales

<div><p>Climate change will affect the composition of plant and animal communities in many habitats and geographic settings. This presents a dilemma for conservation programs – will the portfolio of protected lands we now have achieve a goal of conserving biodiversity in the future when the ecological communities occurring within them change? Climate change will significantly alter many plant communities, but the geophysical underpinnings of these landscapes, such as landform, elevation, soil, and geological properties, will largely remain the same. Studies show that extant landscapes with a diversity of geophysical characteristics support diverse plant and animal communities. Therefore, geophysically diverse landscapes will likely support diverse species assemblages in the future, although which species and communities will be present is not altogether clear. Following protocols advanced in studies spanning large regions, we developed a down-scaled, high spatial resolution measure of geophysical complexity based on Ecological Land Units (ELUs) and examined the relationship between plant species richness, ecological community richness, and ELU richness (number of different ELU types). We found that extant landscapes with high ELU richness had a greater variety of ecological community types and high species richness of trees, shrubs, and herbaceous plants. We developed a spatial representation of diverse ELU landscapes to inform local conservation practitioners, such as land trusts, of potential conservation targets that will likely support diverse faunas and floras despite the impact of climate change.</p></div

An example of land acquisition criteria used by a municipal land trust in Rhode Island showing how ELU richness is incorporated into a larger land protection context.

<p>Different conditions for each criterion are assigned a weighted point value (0–3). The sum of the weights is totaled for a candidate property. Criteria provided by the Richmond (RI) Rural Preservation Land Trust.</p>1<p>As defined by the RI Natural History Survey.</p>2<p>As defined on ELU website.</p>3<p>As defined by the RI Natural Heritage Program.</p>4<p>Containing features defined by the RI Historical Society and/or Richmond Historical Society.</p

Total plant species and ecological community density versus ELU richness.

<p>(A) Total plant species density versus total number of different ELU types on ASRI refuges (standardized by refuge area in hectare). (B) Number of ecological communities on ASRI refuges versus ELU type density.</p

Audubon Society of Rhode Island Refuges.

<p>Locations of refuges where vascular plant inventories were conducted.</p

Most common ELU categories accounting for 85% land area of Rhode Island.

<p>Most common ELU categories accounting for 85% land area of Rhode Island.</p